The most important thing for the New England Patriots this season is obvious. It has been for a long time. Drake Maye’s development matters more than anything else.
So far, in a season where little else has gone as planned for the Pats, Maye’s performance has been the silver lining. It offers hope for what could be in store if the front office can fix the rest of the roster.
But the eye test is one thing. While the team and most fans are rightfully thrilled with what Maye has done through his first six starts, we wanted to see what the stats say. Here are 11 numbers that tell the story of Maye’s exciting start in the NFL. (All stats cited are from TruMedia unless indicated otherwise.)
31: This is Maye’s rank among NFL quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback on throws of at least 10 air yards. (For perspective, New England’s Jacoby Brissett ranks 41st out of 41 quarterbacks.) On the surface, this doesn’t seem great and indicates that the Patriots haven’t gotten much production from their downfield passing game.
But the context is important for this one. Read on …
15.8: That’s the percentage of Maye’s attempts thrown beyond 15 yards, which ranks 33rd out of 36 eligible quarterbacks (Brissett ranks 36th). Not that this is a surprise to anyone who has watched the Patriots this season, but there aren’t many deep shots. Again, there are reasons for that to come.
43.4: That’s the percentage of Maye’s attempts beyond 10 yards that have been completed. This is where coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s offense hasn’t lived up to expectations. When Brissett had a full season with Van Pelt in Cleveland, he ranked in the top 10 in the league for air yards per pass, indicating he was taking lots of deep shots.
Van Pelt wants to go deep. He loves play-actions that turn into shot plays. But the Patriots haven’t done much of that yet.
First TD from @DrakeMaye2 to @jpolk_22!
Drake Maye mic’d up 🔜 pic.twitter.com/gUXTjA6OSD
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 11, 2024
On the surface, these seem like troubling numbers. But …
10: This is Maye’s rank in completion percentage over expected. Now we’re getting to the real culprits behind the Patriots’ struggles when it comes to downfield passing.
Basically, the numbers suggest Maye is throwing a lot of good passes — but his receivers aren’t coming down with the ball.
2: The Patriots have two wide receivers who rank in the top eight in drop percentage, according to Pro Football Focus. Among receivers with at least 25 targets, Kayshon Boutte has the fourth-highest drop percentage (16.0), and Ja’Lynn Polk ranks eighth (15.4 percent). It’s hard to have a productive offense when two of your top wide receivers are dropping the ball on more than 15 percent of their targets.
14: This is Maye’s rank in big-time throw percentage, a Pro Football Focus metric that accounts for passes with high value or high difficulty. So Maye isn’t just making easy throws within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.
19: This is Maye’s rank in adjusted EPA/play, a stat from Ben Baldwin that adjusts EPA/play to account for a variety of factors including defenses faced, dropped passes and pass protection. Of note here? Based on the metric, Daniel Jones is the only quarterback who has played as many snaps as Maye and had a more disadvantageous situation around him.
Oh, and who’s No. 20 on the list, one spot behind Maye? Patrick Mahomes. Not bad company.
Quarterback Adjusted EPA through Week 11 pic.twitter.com/atNrZQpar4
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 20, 2024
11.2: This is the percentage of dropbacks that lead to Maye scrambling, the second-highest mark in the NFL behind only Jayden Daniels.
There are a few things at play here. The first is this is bound to happen when you have a struggling offensive line and receivers who don’t get open. The second is that this will always be part of Maye’s game and a way he can help move the chains on third down.
Still, that’s not how the Patriots want Maye to get by right now. They’re encouraging him to scramble less. That’s why in the last two weeks, Maye’s scramble percentage has dropped to seventh in the league.
“Our message to Drake — and we’ve had multiple conversations about this — is to maintain being a quarterback as long as possible, and that’s what we expect,” coach Jerod Mayo said Wednesday.
19.3: That’s the percent of the time that pressure on Maye leads to a sack, an important metric for a quarterback who gets pressured as often as Maye does. (It’s also much lower than Brissett’s percentage.)
Sacks are increasingly viewed as a quarterback stat, and Maye is doing well here, especially for a rookie. This ranks as the 19th-best mark among 40 qualified quarterbacks.
QB keeper for the first.@DrakeMaye2 | #NEPats
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/N4g6ckAqK2
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 17, 2024
35: So far, we’ve mostly addressed the areas where Maye has done well or been let down by his teammates. But he’s not without his faults. Let’s look at two areas in which Maye needs to improve.
The first is on play action, a tactic Van Pelt usually loves. But Maye didn’t do much of it in college, and, in the eyes of the Patriots coaches, he isn’t good enough at it yet to run it frequently. He ranks 35th out of 40 qualified quarterbacks in yards per attempt on play-action passes.
The goal in running play action is to get the defense to bite on the run. But the drawback is that the quarterback’s eyes aren’t focusing on what’s happening downfield, offering less time for him to read and react once he turns his head around. And though the Patriots work on it regularly in practice, they feel — at least so far — that there’s more benefit to keeping Maye’s eyes downfield.
“I think his play-action pass has to improve,” Van Pelt said. “Just the ball handling there — we’re not quite where we need to be to get the most out of it. So that’s an area that we’ve targeted for improvement.”
5.2: This is the percentage of Maye’s passes that have been deemed turnover-worthy by Pro Football Focus, the highest rate in the league.
For now, this reflects the Patriots’ view that it’s better to let Maye play naturally — even if it’s a bit reckless. They plan to fine-tune his decision-making over time rather than having him dial it all the way back and risk losing his gunslinger mentality. Still, as Maye’s career goes on, this number will have to come down.
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(Photo: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)
