As I write this, Week 1 is in the books with the exception of the New York Jets/San Francisco matchup on Monday night. The other 15 games gave me plenty to think about.
Week 1 is tough! The preseason provides little indication of what to expect and, primarily, I use “known over unknown” when setting lineups. But, as we saw leading up to kick-off of Week 1, there are a lot of situations in flux, including some big names. What’s a dynasty coach to do after the first week?
The answer to that question is usually: Nothing!
As dynasty managers, we play the long game. Sure, there’s the immediate gratification element present in our game because, after all, a slow start to the season may mean we don’t have the best ingredients for our dynasty cookie. Or, it may simply mean that Lady Luck isn’t shining on us yet. I’m hear to help you determine whether there’s anything actionable to take from Week 1. Is it okay to begin panicking with the NFL regular season only 60 minutes old, or do you simply need to “R-E-L-A-X” (hopefully you get that reference).
Slow Start for Rookies
Truth be told, the start was fair. Quarterbacks struggled, which is no surprise. Running backs were largely invisible. Brock Bowers had a nice day, garnering eight targets, securing six of them for 58 yards. I thought Michael Mayer would factor more heavily. Xavier Worthy’s opening night remains the marquee performance. The other top rookie receivers of 2024 saw time but largely produced meh results. That’s okay. I’m watching Rome Odunze’s knee MRI with fingers crossed. Jalen McMillan scored his first touchdown and should have had a second — my super sleeper is well on his way. Adonai Mitchell could have had at least one touchdown, maybe two, as well.
What now? Sit on your hands, give the rookies a chance to develop and don’t be afraid to leave them out of starting lineups. No rookie will make or break his career in Week 1.
Malik Nabers
I’ve already written as to why I believed Malik Nabers was over-drafted in dynasty, and that did play out in Week 1. Quarterback quality is a significant component for all rookie receivers and if it wasn’t DEFCON 1 in 2023 for the Giants, it certainly is in 2024. The problem is that the cupboard is bare in the Big Apple and any answer to the situation could carry multi-season impact, unless they pull a trade for a significant presence under center. It could be three years before we see Nabers produce into a value befitting of his draft status. On the plus side, he still produced 66 yards on 5-of-7 receiving.
What now? Once again, we’re sitting on our hands. I never expected Nabers to be so good as to single-handedly fix the Giants offensive issues, especially that of Daniel Jones. At this juncture, the sooner the Giants move on from Jones and focus on the future, the better. I’d like to see them consider a trade for Detroit’s Hendon Hooker, but even that doesn’t offer a quick fix. Nabers is no better than a WR3/4 for the next few weeks.
Justin Fields
I’m on record as saying I believe Chicago made a mistake in not retaining Fields and building on his skill set in 2024. At the same time, I get it and was happy to see him move on. Fields got the surprise start for the Steelers when Russell Wilson re-aggravated his calf injury, and his Week 1 showing was … fair. He took care of the football but, once again, continued the preseason theme of not being able to get the team into the end zone. The fan base appears to want Fields to retain the job and I’m with them. At the same time, I wanted to see more.
What now? Fields wasn’t starting much in fantasy outside of SuperFlex formats. Even one touchdown would have made his day borderline solid, but it wasn’t to be. Insiders seem to believe nothing has changed with Wilson being the starter, likely in Week 2. Ultimately, it doesn’t much matter for Fields’ near-term future, and I’m kicking the can down the road. His position on my rosters was not as a starter, but as a low-valued developmental asset and nothing has changed. I still expect to see more of him later this season.
Trouble in Cincinnati
Yikes, this is getting bad. If Tee Higgins sitting out Week 1 due to injury wasn’t bad enough, Ja’Marr Chase’s preseason hold-in, when combined with a late-week illness, helped set the stage for what was to come. Without Higgins, the defensive secondary was able to limit Chase. Joe Burrow looked lost and without alternatives. There’s every potential this could turn into a winter of discontent, though the Bengals are no stranger to slow starts. Burrow hasn’t been particularly good early in the season.
What now? Higgins is a free agent in 2025. Chase is unquestionably not happy, and it showed in his post-game interview. How long this continues is anyone’s guess but, it’s not out of the question that the canyon-sized gap between Chase and the team has season-long implications. Winning is a cure for many ills and I suspect the Bengals will be on the prowl again by Week 3. If anything, this may be a time for opportunistic dynasty managers to sniff out trade opportunities for Burrow, Chase and Higgins. Me? I’m waiting until after Week 2 (@KC) when I think another bad loss to the Chiefs could set the situation ablaze.
Sophomore Quarterbacks
Just how bad is Bryce Young, how good is C.J. Stroud, and what is Anthony Richardson’s ceiling? So far, it’s playing out about how I expected. I cautioned dynasty managers overly high on Young when comparing him against the more prototypically-sized Stroud. To be honest, I was also was taking Richardson as the QB1 in rookie drafts on ceiling alone. The only minor surprise to me from the three is just how good Stroud has been.
What now? At this juncture, if Bryce Young is your QB1, you’re in trouble. I’ve seen so little development from him in his short time under center, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever turn the corner. Stroud has been so good that he’s cemented himself as a top five quarterback already. As for Richardson, I watched every dropback that he took with respect to pocket presence, climbing the ladder, escaping the pocket with his eyes downfield, and passing accuracy. In real time, I was disappointed with his interception, until seeing that the pass should have been completed if not for his receiver tripping with the ball in the air. Arm strength is off the charts. Presence in the pocket was good. Richardson is a start in your weekly lineups unless you have one of the top five. He’s right where he needs to be in the second tier of dynasty quarterbacks.
Rise of Jameson Williams (and Jalen McMillan)
I was pumping my fist on Sunday as one of my two sleeper candidates made my preseason prognostications look solid. I started Jameson Williams in multiple leagues as a WR3 expecting that he’d find the end zone on Sunday. Even rookie Jalen McMillan scored, and should have had a second, as he locked down the WR3 role for Tampa Bay. As for Williams, I was adding him everywhere possible this year after his social network-induced slide, and followers of my work knew how high I was on McMillan.
What now? I can’t say I blame those who jumped ship, but I do think it was premature. To be sure, Williams still must prove he can remain healthy and consistently produce. The Lions offense looks like a juggernaut and will only get better in the weeks to come. As for McMillan, I love his WR3 role between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and still continue to believe he could outproduce Rome Odunze in 2024. Quarterback quality is a thing. You’re holding both Williams and McMillan at this juncture and sitting on your hands when the trade offers start rolling in.
Rising/Falling One Shots – What Now?
Rising
- Joe Mixon, RB — Performing as expected. Add him on a competitive team
- Alvin Kamara, RB — Add now on competitive teams. Sell now if looking to rebuild
- George Pickens, WR — Rising! Still young and I think he’s a WR1
- Jordan Mason, RB — Value is starting to percolate on Christian McCaffrey injury concerns
- David Montgomery, RB — Competitive team target. Dynasty managers are focused on Jahmyr Gibbs
- Isaiah Likely, TE — One game anomaly or the beginning of something bigger? I think the latter
- J.K. Dobbins, RB — Reports of his demise (including mine) were greatly exaggerated — he looked fantastic
- Sam Darnold, QB — You could do a lot worse
Falling
- Raheem Mostert, RB — Age and too many mouths to feed
- Panthers — Sell them all except rookie Jonathon Brooks
- Javonte Williams, RB — Too many mouths and no commitment to one name — Sell
- Deshaun Watson, QB — He hasn’t been good since 2020
- Devin Singletary, RB — He’s a good back on a bad team
- Terry McLaurin, WR — Needs a change of scenery, stat!
- Michael Mayer, TE — Looks like Bowers is going to be the top choice
If you have any questions or comments, please consider leaving a comment below. I always look forward to interacting with my readers. Please give me a follow on Twitter and Threads: @DLF_Jeff
As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!
(Top photo of Jameson Williams: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images)
