Formula One’s Las Vegas Grand Prix is Saturday night, or early Sunday morning in the U.S.’s Eastern Time Zone, which means one of the flashiest, fanciest, ritziest sports heads to one of the flashiest, fanciest, ritziest cities in the world. Max Verstappen entered the week as the betting favorite to win the race, but after the practice sessions, and qualifying Verstappen is fourth in the odds.
As of Saturday morning, following qualifying, Ferrari drivers Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz sit as co-favorites at +225, a shift from Friday morning when Leclerc was slightly favored over McClaren’s Lando Norris. Now with the grid set and Norris starting sixth, he’s dropped to fifth in the odds at +800. Verstappen, who will start in fifth, is just ahead of Norris at +500.
Mercedes’ George Russell, who earned the pole in Vegas and already has one win under his belt this season, is third on the betting board at +300. Meanwhile, Alpine’s Pierre Gasly will start third on the grid — this after a weather-aided P3 finish in the previous race in Sao Paulo — and checks in at +10000.
While Verstappen has been something of a prohibitive favorite in previous seasons, it’s not the same ole, same ole in F1 as the season comes down its final stretch.
Verstappen has won the last three drivers’ championships, two of which were complete runaways. He won 15 races in 2022, 19 races in 2023 and started this season in dominant fashion. The Dutch driver took pole position in each of the first seven grands prix this season and won seven of the first 10 races. Verstappen’s dominance was reflected in the odds. He was often around even money or even a minus odds favorite against the entire field.
That has changed though. Verstappen has taken pole just once in the last 14 races and has one win in the last 11. He is coming off that one win, which was a few weeks ago in Brazil, but wet conditions and a red flag mid-race aided his climb from the bottom after starting the race in 17th.
Las Vegas Grand Prix odds
While Verstappen’s Red Bull car was once clearly the fastest in the field, that no longer appears to be the case. McLaren and Ferrari have enjoyed more success for months and have passed Red Bull in the constructors’ championship, which seemed unthinkable in June.
The fact that Verstappen was ever favored feels like a surprise. Verstappen’s teammate, Sergio Pérez, hasn’t finished in the top five of a race since the Miami Grand Prix in early May. That’s both a knock on Pérez and a sign of Verstappen’s talent that he has been able to have success in a Red Bull car that has clearly fallen behind others in the field.
In short, if you haven’t been paying attention to F1 much this year, races have become competitive, and Verstappen looks more like an elite driver dragging a mediocre car into good positions than a certainty on the level of death and taxes.
Verstappen on the verge of clinching again
Verstappen’s win in Brazil may have cemented his fourth straight drivers’ championship. There are only two more races after Las Vegas, and Verstappen leads Norris by 62 points. He can clinch the championship in Las Vegas. There are many clinching scenarios for Verstappen this weekend, but the simplest is if Norris doesn’t outscore Verstappen, then Verstappen will have wrapped up the championship.
Constructors’ battle still on
Unlike the battle for the top spot among the drivers, the constructors’ championship still feels like a competition. McLaren is in the lead with 593 points, 36 ahead of Ferrari. Red Bull is 13 behind Ferrari in third place (49 behind McLaren). McLaren won’t be able to clinch the championship during Saturday’s race.
The odds on BetMGM give McLaren a massive edge at -700 (1-to-7). Ferrari is +400 (4-to-1) to make a comeback, while Red Bull is a huge long shot at +5000 (50-to-1).
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(Photo of Charles Leclerc: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
