FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Atlanta Falcons coach Raheem Morris said he didn’t realize he was creating his team’s catchphrase when he repeatedly told his players and assistants that he wanted to “Outrun the South.”
Now that the Falcons are doing that, the slogan is appearing on T-shirts and seemingly is on the tip of every player’s tongue.
“I was just speaking from the heart,” Morris said. “It’s not just winning those six games in the division, it’s winning the division. How do you win the division? You keep running so they can’t catch you. We’ve put ourselves in the lead, and we’ve got to keep running. You can’t look back because you know what they are doing.”
So will the Falcons be able to get that done? And what else might play out as this team finishes the final eight games of the season? That’s what we’re here to discuss in our second-half predictions for the Falcons.
Might as well start with that slogan.
The Falcons will win the NFC South
Atlanta (6-3) is two full games in front in the division after Tampa Bay’s loss to Kansas City on Monday night, and the Falcons have a chance to go 5-0 in the division on Sunday against a New Orleans team that has lost seven straight and just fired its head coach. The beaten-up but plucky Buccaneers look like the only threat to this prediction, and the Falcons already have beaten Tampa Bay twice this season.
Our playoff projections give the Falcons a 92 percent chance of winning the division and a 95 percent chance of making the playoffs.
It would be the Falcons’ first division title since 2016 and only their fourth since 2004, and it would guarantee they host a playoff game this season. The Falcons haven’t played a playoff game anywhere since 2017, when Morris was their defensive coordinator.
Kirk Cousins will win a league-wide award
It’s not going to be MVP or Offensive Player of the Year, but it will be Comeback Player of the Year, and that will be good enough. One year after tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 8 of last season, Cousins is fourth in the league in passing touchdowns (17), sixth in yards per game (258.7) and ninth in passer rating (101.9).
“Just grateful for being back out on a football field and playing,” he said.
Throw it where they ain’t, @KirkCousins8 💰
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— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 3, 2024
Cousins’ EPA per dropback is his third best as a full-time starter and only .02 behind his single-season best set in 2019.
His stiffest competition for the award will come from Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who missed seven games last year with a wrist injury. At the moment, Burrow is ahead of Cousins in every significant passing category, but two factors are working in Cousins’ favor.
First, Burrow has already won the award (2021). Second, the Falcons have two more wins than the Bengals, who are in danger of missing the playoffs. If Cousins can snap Atlanta’s postseason drought, that should push him past Burrow.
Bijan Robinson will finish top five in YAC
The second-year running back said in the preseason that he hoped to have a Christian McCaffrey-like impact on the Falcons this year, and the place where he’s doing that most effectively is in the passing game. Robinson leads the NFL in yards after the catch with 300, and while he may not keep that up throughout the season, Robinson is well-positioned to finish in the top five.
Robinson’s 43.89 yards after the catch per game this season ranks 27th among running backs since 2000, according to TruMedia. The best season by a running back in that period was McCaffrey’s 2019 season, when he averaged 63.44 yards after the catch.
In addition to being Atlanta’s leading rusher (135 carries for 632 yards), Robinson is third on the team in receptions with 38 for 303 yards. The Saints’ Alvin Kamara is the only running back with more receptions this year.
Sunday was a good illustration of Robinson’s value in the passing game and of why Robinson will continue to pile up yards after the catch. He caught seven passes on seven targets for 59 yards against the Cowboys, and most of those came after Cousins had exhausted multiple options in the progression and dumped the ball to Robinson with plenty of room to run.
… but he won’t lead Atlanta in touchdown runs
That will be Tyler Allgeier. The Falcons have made clear they view Robinson as the No. 1 back. He has 135 carries compared with Allgeier’s 74, but Robinson leads Allgeier in rushing touchdowns by only two (4-2).
All it takes is watching Allgeier’s 6-yard scoring run against Dallas on Sunday to understand why he’s the Falcons’ most appealing option close to the end zone.
Teamwork makes the dream work@tylerallgeier25 😤
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— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 3, 2024
The Falcons will finish with fewer than 25 sacks
The Falcons sacked Dak Prescott three times, and Morris said: “On the pass rush, that was absolutely outstanding to see that come to life, to see your practice preparation and performance become game reality was something that you love to see.”
That may end up being a mirage, though. The Cowboys have allowed 21 sacks this year, which ranks 19th in the league, and Atlanta has had only one other multi-sack game this season. The schedule is going to give the Falcons some opportunities. Six of their remaining eight opponents are in the bottom half of the league in sack percentage allowed, according to TruMedia, but it’s still hard to imagine many more three-sack games this year considering how hard they are having to work to get any kind of pressure.
The Falcons’ pressure percentage (27.5 percent) ranks 31st in the league, and they have gotten only 3 1/2 sacks from the edge rushers (Matthew Judon 1 1/2, James Smith-Williams one and Arnold Ebiketie one). Fewer than 25 sacks would mean they would rank 730th or lower among season totals since 2000.
Jessie Bates will finish third in DPOY voting
Bates would have to grab a flurry of interceptions and start getting some sacks to have a real chance at winning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, but even a top-five finish would be an accomplishment for a safety. Only two safeties have finished in the top seven in the voting since 2010, which is the last time a player at the position won the award (Troy Polamalu). Both finished third — Earl Thomas in 2013 and Landon Collins in 2016.
Bates is second on the team in tackles with 56 tackles. He also has five pass breakups, three forced fumbles and two interceptions. Those aren’t gaudy numbers, but Bates’ coaches and teammates have been vocal enough about his value that he’s at least on the radar for voters now.
It could also help Bates that there’s no clear frontrunner, and pass rushers like T.J. Watt, Dexter Lawrence, Trey Hendrickson, Myles Garrett and Khalil Mack might split a lot of votes.
Michael Penix Jr. will start a game
It won’t be because Cousins isn’t playing well, obviously (see above). In fact, he’s playing so well that the Falcons are on track to wrap up the division title before the final week of the regular season when they face the Panthers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
That would make for the perfect opportunity to get Penix some real game action. The No. 8 pick in this year’s draft played one series in garbage time against Seattle, handing the ball off twice and completing his only pass of the game. That hardly counts as an introduction to the NFL, though.
An entire game against a division opponent, even one that’s struggling mightily, will give the Falcons a much better idea of how much progress Penix has made on the practice field. It will also give fans a reason to show up for the last game.
Two receivers will have career seasons
This doesn’t qualify as going out on a limb because Darnell Mooney and Drake London are on pace to do that right now, but it still would be quite an accomplishment. Mooney is the Falcons’ leading receiver and 21st in the league with 65.3 receiving yards per game. At that rate, he would finish with 1,110, surpassing the 1,055 he posted in Chicago in 2021.
London is 27th in the league with 61.3 yards per game, putting him on pace to finish with 1,042 yards. His current season best is last year’s 905 yards. Even if London can’t play against the Saints because of the hip pointer he suffered against the Cowboys (Morris called him “day to day” on Monday), London should be able to get past that number the way the Falcons are throwing the ball.
(Photo of Tyler Allgeier: Brett Davis / Imagn Images)
