The stove was warming up, and by the time MLB personnel reached the Winter Meetings, it was officially hot — the stove, that is. It is December, after all.
The deal we all were waiting for happened in the early hours of December 9: Alex Cobb signed with the Detroit Tigers. Oh, did you think I meant Juan Soto?
Fine. Let’s talk about Soto.
Of course, Soto was the most prized free agent, and his “sell me” tour took place ahead of the Winter Meetings. The five teams ultimately in play were the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, and New York Mets.
Soto is staying in New York but is changing boroughs after signing a 15-year deal with the Mets.
He’s not the only player changing uniforms on Opening Day next year. Let’s look at the movers and shakers — from the Winter Meetings and shortly before — and what their new homes mean for their fantasy outlook.
I’m not going to discuss the Brady Singer for Jonathan India trade, but The Athletic’s Keith Law has you covered.
The superstars
Juan Soto (OF – NYM)
The Yankees seemed like the dream destination for Soto on paper when he was traded there from the San Diego Padres last offseason. That is, if Soto could tap into his power and take advantage of the short porch in New York. He did that and more, hitting 41 homers for the Yankees.
The home ballpark shifting from the Bronx to Queens could be considered a downgrade for some, but at Citi Field, Soto has a 1.175 OPS with 12 home runs in 117 at-bats. He also had great results when playing in Washington and San Diego, so home ballparks don’t matter as much to a player of his caliber.
Our friends at FTN have released their projections, and here’s how Soto will do with the Mets compared to the Yankees.
FTN’s 2025 Juan Soto projection if he stayed in the Bronx
45 HR
101 RBI
.434 wOBA
.297 BA
.419 OBP
115 Runs
165 Hits— MLBdream (@mlbdream.bsky.social) December 10, 2024 at 1:20 PM
There’s a minimal — at most — difference
One school of thought fades big free agents who sign with a new team, as the assumption is that they’ll feel the pressure and press. While yes, Soto is on a new team, it’s his fourth team in his career.
Don’t overthink it with Soto. He is a top-2 pick in points leagues and a sure-fire first-round pick in category-based leagues — even if the steals aren’t there.
Blake Snell (SP – LAD)
Imagine if first-half Blake Snell showed up in the second half of the season last year. We’d be having a different conversation. Snell struggled mightily in the first half of 2024, but he didn’t sign with the San Francisco Giants until late March. After the All-Star break, Snell was a monster, posting a 1.45 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.
He now joins the Dodgers, which is a reminder that this post never, ever gets old.
Thanks to @craigcalcaterra.bsky.social, here’s the original! x.com/RotoPat/stat…
— 29 Sunset (@29sunset.com) October 10, 2024 at 10:15 AM
And it’s true again this year. The Dodgers are looking to repeat, and Snell will help them do that with the likely loss of Walker Buehler and shell-of-himself Clayton Kershaw.
Snell’s up-and-down season shouldn’t be a surprise, as it’s a microcosm of his career.
The Dodgers’ approach to their rotation, assuming everyone stays healthy, will be interesting. We could see a six-man rotation as LA looks to maintain health for the playoffs.
If the Dodgers use that approach and Snell uses his improved fastball — .194 xBA and 24.4 Whiff% in 2024 — and lights-out curve at the rates he used them (46.4 percent and 26.1 percent, respectively) previously, then he’s likely to be back in the Cy Young hunt.
Garrett Crochet (SP – BOS)
OK, fine. I’ll be the one to say it. I’m fading Crochet this fantasy season.
It’s not that he’s not “a dude.” A lot has me hesitant to buy into him as my SP1 and a top-10 starter for fantasy. And if you’re taking him, that’s what it will cost you.
Let us first look at the landing spot. He gets out of Chicago, which is a huge win for anyone. The move to Boston should help with wins, as unpredictable as those are, and he was in the 98th percentile in K% and 93rd percentile in Chase% and Whiff%.
What’s not to love, then?
Well, the AL East. The AL Central has some reasonable pitcher-friendly confines and less offensive power than the AL East. He’s a fastball-heavy (53%) lefty pitching in Fenway with the Green Monster in left field. What’s more, he now has to not only face the teams in the AL East more often, but he has to pitch in Baltimore with a shorter left field, New York with their little-league field, and Tampa, in a smaller ballpark due to damage to Tropicana Field.
OK, but we hope he will make 32 to 34 starts, not all of which will be against these teams.
That’s fair! What’s also fair is questioning the workload. Last year was his first year as a starter, throwing 146 innings (after throwing 24 innings in 2023). And while the White Sox did reduce his workload down the stretch, he threw a total of 17.1 innings across five starts in September, and there was no real reason to have him throw any innings then.
His upside is near that of Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal and Jacob deGrom, and he likely achieves it. But there’s a decent chance he doesn’t, so I’ll let someone else take a shot on Crochet in Boston.
Fantasy risers
Tyler O’Neill (OF – BAL)
Last year was just the second time O’Neill recorded more than 450 plate appearances in a season and the second time he’s hit more than 15 home runs in a season.
Coincidence? I think not.
The 2024 campaign was pivotal for O’Neill to live up to the hype. He did that in Boston, hitting 31 home runs and compiling a career-high .336 OBP. Now, he’s heading to the Baltimore Orioles, and while I’m less excited than I was a year ago with this landing spot, Baltimore is moving in the left-field fence after an interesting experiment, which should help O’Neill — health permitting — reach the 30-homer plateau again.
Thairo Estrada (2B – COL)
I never got the Estrada love. I know I shouldn’t use “I” so much in this piece and paragraph, but I want to drive the point home. It’s never made sense.
But now, with Coors Field in play, I can muster some excitement. The exit velocity is non-existent, as is the walk rate, but he does bring some speed to the table. And when you’re looking at the biggest bump in Coors Field, there’s an increased BABIP that players like Estrada can take advantage of with its big gaps in the outfield. Estrada should play every day — or at least earn the opportunity to — while teasing a 15/15 season with a .260(ish) batting average. That’ll play as a middle infielder in fantasy.
Michael Conforto (OF – LAD)
The Dodgers acquired another interesting bat in a lineup that doesn’t have much punch.
Kidding. It’s absurd, even if the outfield configuration is … interesting defensively.
Conforto should play, at worst, as the strong side of a platoon. He hit 20 homers last year for the Giants — notably, 17 came on the road. Lineup protection is largely a myth, but it’s hard to disregard the bump in counting stats Conforto should get by coming to Los Angeles. He should be considered a solid OF3 to OF4 for the upcoming season in 15-teamers.
Alex Cobb (SP – DET)
Oh, let’s go, Alex Cobb. He only threw 16.1 innings for the Guardians last year, and injuries have been an issue for him throughout his career, but don’t forget what he did in San Francisco in 2022 and 2023. Cobb threw an average of 150 innings, with a 22K% and a 3.80 ERA (3.94 xERA).
He’s another year older, but he’ll enter a Tigers rotation where all other likely starters are 28 or younger.
The Tigers will need Cobb to eat innings, and admittedly, that’s scary for a guy who has struggled to stay healthy. But throwing 135 innings now isn’t the same as throwing 135 innings five years ago. Having players who do that is valuable.
Detroit has a spacious ballpark, but Cobb is a splitter/sinker pitcher, so the main question will be whether or not Colt Keith, Trey Sweeney, and Jace Jung (average age of 24) are up for the challenge in the infield.
Danny Jansen (C – TB)
The catching market was bleak. Outside of Jansen, the only real target for teams was Gary Sanchez. So yeah, the Rays nailed this signing of Jansen.
He was stuck in Toronto, never developing into the offensive weapon Jays fans hoped he would. Alejandro Kirk jumped him in priority for Toronto, and he had a cup of coffee in Boston last year.
Now, playing half of his games (less because he’s a catcher) in George M. Steinbrenner Field, Jansen could find himself hitting 15 homers with a .230 average.
It’s not sexy, but Jansen has become a top-20 catcher now.
Jake Burger (3B – TEX)
From Chicago to Miami and now to Texas, the power-hitting Burger has bounced around over the past few years (given his story of getting to the league, it’s pretty impressive). But as a marketing person in my non-baseball life, I want Burger’s power on my team. The Super Smash Burger giveaways, the Kendrick Lamar “MUSTAAAAAARD” fun you could have this year. The options are endless.
His value increases after leaving Miami and heading to Texas. He followed up his 2023 season with a similar line in 2024, and he should continue to be a significant power source for fantasy managers without draining the batting average.
Texas has many pieces, but Burger should be a regular designated hitter for the Rangers and serve as insurance for Josh Jung and Nathaniel Lowe at the corners.
Fantasy fallers
Max Fried (SP – NYY)
The Yankees needed a big arm, and while Fried (like Soto) won’t get a free suite, that’s not a dealbreaker for him like it was for Soto.
Look, Fried is an excellent pitcher. It’s great to see him get a bag, and he bounced back in a contract year to throw 174.1 innings a season after dealing with injuries — including a forearm scare this year — and being limited to 14 games.
However, there are serious concerns about his health, which the Yankees already have in abundance throughout their rotation.
The good news is that Fried pounds the lower zone, and his 59.2 groundball rate is in the 96th percentile. He’s changed his offerings from 2022 to 2024 by featuring the sinker more and the slider less. In a small ballpark, that’ll help, along with his sustained ability to suppress hard-hit balls.
Still, there’s risk here, mainly from the health and ballpark perspectives, but also because he’s a pitcher on a new contract in a new ballpark (and league). I’m fading him this year, but I’ll be in on him — health permitting — in 2026.
Willy Adames (SS – SFG)
From a real-life standpoint, you gotta love his landing spot. Adames will look good in the classic Giants uniform. But from a fantasy standpoint … yikes.
We’ve seen how San Francisco suppresses offensive outputs, which will hurt Adames, too. Only 15 of Adames’ 32 home runs last year were to left-center and left field. For a righty in San Francisco to have fantasy success, you want them to be pull-heavy. With the spacious centerfield and breeze-generating right field, I don’t expect the same power numbers from Adames after leaving Milwaukee.
Matt Chapman was able to do it last year in San Francisco, but even his one opposite-field home run came on the road in Tampa Bay against a position player.
What’s more, Chapman consistently generates high exit velocity readings, coming in at an average of 93.2 mph last year, good for the 96th percentile.
Adames is sitting right at the league average (88.6 mph), which will kill him in the power department.
The shortstop position is deep enough for fantasy that I’d rather take players like Matt McLain, Bo Bichette and Anthony Volpe over Adames this year.
Luis Severino (OAK – SP)
How exciting that Severino was able to secure a lucrative contract. Injuries seemed like they would derail his promising career, but after last year with the Mets, he positioned himself as a sought-after free agent.
And he got a three-year contract … with the Oakland Athletics. Will Severino be a member of the A’s by the end of his contract? Not likely. The extra year will make him a nice trade option at the trade deadline — this year or next. This landing spot would have been fine for fantasy a year ago, given the spacious Oakland Coliseum. But now, starting Severino at home in Sacramento will be scary, given the dimensions and likely hitter-friendly environment there.
Severino’s fantasy value takes a big hit unless he gets dealt again.
Meh — Wait and see
Frankie Montas (SP – NYM): The Mets did a great job getting Severino and Sean Manaea back on track as big-league pitchers. Can Montas be next? Montas tried to throw his cutter more last season and had a .337 xBA against it. Seeing him return to featuring the splitter as a secondary offering like he did in Oakland and ditching the cutter can help him.
Clay Holmes (SP – NYM): The Mets apparently plan on using Holmes as a starter. I also planned on running a 5K this year.
Spencer Horwitz (1B – PIT): Horwitz has a cool story as a 27-year-old rookie last year with a solid showing for Toronto. He was dealt to Cleveland and then Pittsburgh on the same day. The Pirates seemed like a potential destination for Christian Walker, but Ben Cherington and company opted for Horwitz instead to “fill a need.” That need remains to be seen, but Horwitz will be starting, at least.
Luis Ortiz (SP – CLE): Heading over to Cleveland for Horwitz was Ortiz, which was surprising, given he had a solid year for the Pirates. He has shown an ability to generate whiffs with his slider, and his fastball is passable. Cleveland is a good landing spot for pitchers, so we’ll see how his sinker and cutter develop. For now, he’s a lottery ticket in the late rounds.
Andrés Giménez (2B – TOR): Who really won the Francisco Lindor trade, huh? It was the Mets. It was always the Mets. But one of the players the Guardians received, Andrés Giménez, is heading to Toronto. He had a good stretch in 2022, hitting .297/.371/.466 with 17 homers and 20 steals. But outside of that season, he’s a glove-first infielder who can steal bases.
Jordan Romano (RP – PHI): Shoutout to the 1993 World Series. Romano was born in April of that year in Canada, and after playing his entire career with the Blue Jays, he now joins the Phillies, who the Blue Jays beat in the World Series 31 years ago. Excuse me while I contemplate everything. I remember watching it when I came home from school.
Anywho, there are clear injury risks with Romano, which are indicated by his one-year deal with the Phillies. He should get the first shot at closing games for Philadelphia, but Romano’s ninth-inning role may be short-lived if he struggles to miss bats with his four-seamer again.
Matthew Boyd (SP – CHC): Boyd Boys, unite! Boyd lands in Chicago on a two-year deal. I also enjoyed this piece by Sara Sanchez, who compares Boyd to Drew Smyly. We just want innings and health for Boyd to be an SP5.
(Photo of Juan Soto: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
