I used to be the guy who threw remote controls at the TV when a player did or did not do something in a game. I know, I know — I’m not proud of it. Now I realize that I have no control over outcomes, so it’s a waste of time and energy to tilt over them. Just focus on the process and hope that it ends positively.
Looking back at my journey from fanaticism to serenity, I realized that I intuitively understood the concept of “range of outcomes” at an early age.
When I wrote my Christmas wish list as a kid, I broke it into tiers. I’d shoot my shot for ceiling outcomes at the top, knowing success had a low probability. But maybe … just maybe … my parents would think I was super good! The meat of the list included items in the sweet spot for price. At the bottom were the “No matter how bad I’ve been, it’s Christmas” items.
To pay homage to those early days, I will break down this piece in a similar fashion. But before I begin, I must honor the queen of Christmas, Mariah Carey, but not for the song you are likely thinking.
Tyler Herro is straight ballin’ out right now. He’s a top-35 player on a per-game basis in eight-category rankings (without turnovers). In the first five years of his career, Herro never cracked the top 60. So, what’s changed?
His rebounds and defensive stats are status quo, and he’s produced a slight uptick in assists. His 27 percent usage rate is in line with the last few seasons. Herro’s main progression has been in shooting efficiency, as he’s converting 47 percent from the field, 41 percent from downtown and 56 percent from inside the arc — all career-highs.
My initial assumption was that Herro would regress in efficiency, and I still think that is likely. However, the data offers slivers of optimism.
The sample size for Herro is relatively small (24 games), but I compared it to last season’s 41 games played, and his shot diet has been different this season. He’s replaced two shots inside the arc with two from downtown. But those are lower-percentage shots, right? Well, his catch-and-shoot treys have increased while pull-up treys have decreased. In addition, his treys attempted this season are open by around 4 percent more than last season.
Now for shots inside the arc. Last season, the shot chart shows many attempts outside the paint and in the analytical dead zone — the space between the paint and the 3-point line. Most of Herro’s 2-pointers are inside the paint this season, and his pull-up frequency has decreased dramatically, from 24.4 percent to 10.5 percent.
Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming.
All I want for Christmas is …
Here are my shooting-my-shot requests: I want on-the-fly substitutions and advantage play instead of free throws. Basketball is a beautiful game with a more intense rhythmic pace than soccer, but there are too many stoppages. I’d like to see the clock stopped when a ball goes out of bounds, but players and refs getting the ball in play as soon as they can, then the clock resuming right after. At any point during the action, teams could sub freely. There would be flow to the action, and the strategy would increase because matchups could be changed instantaneously.
An advantage play instead of free throws would be similar to hockey in that a shooting foul would force a player to the sideline for one possession, giving the offense a 5-on-4 advantage.
I want shoes that can help prevent sprained ankles. We have cars that can deploy airbags instantly, and nanobots can enter a person’s bloodstream and perform repairs. Is it too outlandish to design a shoe that can deploy a stabilizing mechanism to prevent an ankle from rolling too far to one side? OK, maybe it is, but this is my Christmas wish list.
A shoe landing on the court differs from a shoe landing on another player’s foot. Sensors could identify that and then have mini airbags or some piece on the side to prevent the ankle from bending too violently.
Finally, I want some kind of Kevlar bubble wrap for players like Alex Caruso, Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid. We have the technology to make it lightweight, so wrapping them in protective material wouldn’t be too cumbersome.
Thank you for indulging me in that trip to Neverland.
All I want for Christmas is …
Bilal Coulibaly to continue initiating the offense. In each of his last three games, Coulibaly’s usage rate has been at least 24 percent. He’s averaged 17 shots, 21 points, 5.3 rebounds, five assists, three treys, 0.7 steals and one block. He’s shown that his offensive bag has developed, navigating pick-and-roll action, breaking down defenders in isolation, hitting pull-up jumpers, spinning in the paint and showing off the float game.
Those games were without Malcolm Brogdon or Kyle Kuzma, though. When they were on the court, Coulibaly was more of a spot-up 3-and-D player with a usage rate in the teens. The Wizards gave Coulibaly offensive responsibility in the NBA Summer League, so the plan is to have him be a primary creator eventually. Hopefully, this recent streak shows management that he’s ready and that either Brogdon or Kuzma should be moved or shelved because it’s all about development for the Wizards right now.
There still could be some volatile times ahead for Coulibaly, as the Wizards might want to give Brogdon and Kuzma minutes to showcase them and maximize trade value. I’d be buying those dips.
All I want for Christmas is …
Donovan Clingan to get more playing time. Clingan has played in 19 games and averaged 17.1 minutes per contest. In that span, he’s essentially had the highest block rate (11.4 percent). I’m not going to count JT Thor’s 13.2 percent block rate in 21 total minutes. Chet Holmgren has a 10 percent block rate, while Victor Wembanyama is at 9.6 percent. Clingan also has the fifth-highest rebound rate at 21.8 percent.
Unfortunately, I’m not too optimistic that Clingan gets more than 20 minutes per game outside of injury. Portland keeps its 2025 first-round pick if it lands in the 1-to-14 pick range, which is very likely. The Trail Blazers are 8-18, 13th in the Western Conference. Clearly, Portland has the motivation to trade away players, especially Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams, which would open up more playing time for Clingan. But who trades for Ayton at $34 million this season and $35.5 million in 2025-26? Williams is likely more palatable at $12.4 million this season and $13.2 million next season, but he has an injury history.
Clingan is currently eighth with 39 blocks, so he’s still viable for fantasy. A ceiling outcome is unlikely, but change comes fast in the NBA streets.
Speaking of things changing fast …
In the summer, Alex Sarr, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, was the favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year. A few weeks into the season, No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher and Zach Edey were co-favorites. By December, Jared McCain was the prohibitive favorite, with Dalton Knecht behind him. With McCain out for the season, Stephon Castle has now taken the top spot as the favorite at +125 on BetMGM. Yves Missi is second at +225.
The race for ROY honors will be interesting because Castle is averaging 27.2 minutes per game and has shown that the game isn’t too big for him. He is also getting exposure playing alongside Victor Wembanyama. While he’s shown the capacity to finish strong at the rim, Castle’s outside shooting is still suspect, as he’s converted only 27 percent of his shots from downtown.
In the offseason, there were questions about why the Pelicans didn’t pursue a center, but the chatter concluded that they were extremely high on Missi due to his physical attributes and mental capacity to learn and grow. Their faith has been rewarded. Missi was part of the rotation from Day 1 and has continued to improve. Over the past six games, he’s averaged 12.3 points, 11.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks.
Edey has the fifth-highest odds at +1400, but he’s a case of “out-of-sight, out-of-mind” after missing 12 games due to an ankle injury. He returned on Sunday, played 24 minutes and contributed 13 points, 10 rebounds, an assist, a steal and a block. Memphis is second in the Western Conference with an 18-9 record, so if the Grizzlies continue to win with Edey contributing, he will likely skyrocket toward the top.
Sarr is now at +2500 to win ROY. His defense has been legit, but his offense has been poor due to inefficient shooting from outside. In addition, he’s only played around 28 minutes per game. There is a chance, though, that the Wizards trade away players, especially Jonas Valanciunas, and Sarr starts playing in the low-to-mid 30-minute range. What if he starts developing on offense and becomes a double-double monster, producing highlights on a nightly basis? It’s not likely, but it’s within the range of outcomes.
All I want for Christmas is …
Injuries are turned off for only the players I have rostered. I kid, I kid! Injuries stink, and I feel bad for the players and their families. I also want to see the highest outcomes for players and teams to witness greatness.
There has been some chatter about Kawhi Leonard returning to action. Tyronn Lue recently said that Leonard has “progressed very well.” James Harden said that it’s been great having Leonard back at practice. Leonard hasn’t logged a full practice yet, though, and his travel status for the upcoming road trip has not been confirmed, but where there is smoke, there is fire.
If Leonard returns to action, I’m not automatically assuming he will be held back. Last season, Leonard played in 10 of 12 back-to-back situations, but usage is obviously a concern. When he’s on the court, Leonard is a per-game monster. Over the past two seasons, he’s averaged 23.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.0 treys, 1.5 steals and 0.7 blocks while shooting 51 percent from the field, 41 percent from downtown and 8 percent from the line.
The return of Leonard would adversely affect Harden. Last season, Harden had a 20.6 percent usage rate — he throttled down to facilitator for Leonard and Paul George. With both out (George in Philly) this season, Harden has seen his usage rate spike to 30.7 percent, with a few games over 40 percent.
Last season, there were five games in which Harden and Leonard played without George. In those games, Harden’s usage rates were 22.3, 23.5, 24.4, 26 and 24.6. With Leonard back, Harden would likely return to the role of facilitator.
I hope everyone has a merry Christmas! See y’all in 2025.
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
