Fantasy basketball roundup: Can Dyson Daniels and Nikola Vucevic stay hot?

A month ago, the fantasy landscape was covered in a deep, pillowy fog. We had conceptions of the lay of the land, but there was still tons of uncertainty — new coaches and schemes, different roster constructions and player evolution or regression.

Victor Wembanyama’s torso, head, and arms jutted upwards, making him viewable from coast to coast, but the league questioned even his ability to adjust and develop.

We are now roughly 20 games into the 2024-25 regular season, so the sample size is decent enough to have more confidence in what we’ve seen, but there’s a lot of season left.

Here’s what I’ve seen and my thoughts on whether those trends are sustainable or not:

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After 20 games last season, Herbert Jones stood out, posting top-30 production on a per-game basis over that span. Always known as a defensive savant, in his third season, Jones looked to be leveling up on the offensive end, averaging 12.4 points on 51 percent shooting from the field. He was also averaging 1.8 steals per contest.

For the rest of the season, Jones was fine, but his points and steals dropped to 10.5 and 1.2 per contest, respectively. He was a top-100 player.

I’m getting similar vibes from Dyson Daniels.

This is Daniels’ third year, and much of his value is tied to defensive stats. But we know those can be fickle, especially now that the league understands how potent Daniels is at that end of the floor.

Before you throw internet tomatoes at my internet head, I acknowledge that Daniels is a better playmaker than Jones, and this is Daniels’ first time starting. I’m not saying he’s unusable. He will still likely lead the league in steals as he is now averaging 3.1 per game — Jalen Williams is in second at 2.1 pilfers per game.

But Daniels still has difficulty shooting. He’s converting 28 percent from downtown and 64 percent from the line.

I do like Daniels, especially since he’s a 1/1/1 player, and few can provide what he does. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he finishes ranked closer to 100 than where he is now.

On the flip side, fantasy ballers were on tilt last season after Jordan Poole‘s start to the year. Through 19 games, Poole averaged 17.5 points, 1.9 treys, 2.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.2 steals while shooting 40 percent from the field. His usage rate of 27 percent was fine, but his efficiency was awful.

He did improve, but only slightly. While he flashed with seven 30-point games, he also had 35 games with fewer than 20 points, 11 of those in the single digits. His averages over the final 60 games of the season were 17.5 points, 2.5 treys, 2.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.1 steals while shooting 42 percent from the field.

Those who were able to get off the Poole train early potentially profited, depending on the return. At the very least, emotional stability was procured.

Cade Cunningham was another player who started off slowly last season. Through 21 games, he averaged 22 points, 2.0 treys, 3.9 rebounds, 7.4 assists and 1.0 steal while shooting 41 percent with a 32.6 percent usage rate. His turnover rate was 4.4 — good for a bakery but suboptimal for fantasy. He ended at 151st on a per-game basis.

In the final 42 games, Cunningham averaged 22.8 points, 1.8 treys, 4.5 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 0.9 steals while shooting 46 percent from the field with a 31.5 percent usage rate. His counting stats didn’t change much, but his efficiency and turnover rate (3.0) improved. He was a top-65 player during that span.

Sometimes a good or bad early start is an outlier, and sometimes players are what they are.

In the case of Poole and Cunningham, Cunningham had a new coach, so new terminology and philosophy were implemented. He was still the alpha for the Detroit Pistons, he just needed time to acclimate.

Poole, on the other hand, was playing with a new team in a role that was foreign to him. He was getting buckets with the Golden State Warriors, but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were above him in the offensive hierarchy, which is different from a team expecting him to be “The Guy.”

In 16 games this season, Poole is averaging 21 points, 3.2 treys, 2.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.9 steals while shooting 44 percent from the field and 42 percent from downtown — after converting only 32 percent of his hucks from deep last season. He looks comfortable and should continue to do his thing.

There has been much discussion about Nikola Vucevic’s start to the season. Through 22 games, he’s averaging 20.9 points, 2.2 treys, 10 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 0.9 blocks while shooting 58 percent from the field, 47 percent from downtown and 84 percent from the line. He’s a top-10 player for fantasy!

Over his 13-year career, Vucevic has finished as the 11th player on a per-game basis twice: 2018 and 2020. In 2018, Vucevic attempted 2.9 treys and converted 36 percent. In 2020, he played 44 games with the Orlando Magic and 26 games with the Chicago Bulls.

With the Magic, Vucevic attempted 7.3 treys and converted 40 percent. With the Bulls, he chucked up 6.6 and made 38 percent. So this is not unchartered territory. Sure, the 47 percent conversion rate is going to come down, but finishing in the high-30s to 40 percent range is within reach.

In 2023, Vucevic only converted 29 percent of his 4.1 attempts. But his team had DeMar DeRozan. Prior to the start of this season, Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas said, “The shots that we’re going to be hunting are basically rim shots and open threes. And the only way you can do that is play faster because every time you set against, you know, set defenses, it’s very hard to score.”

The Bulls are third in offensive pace and have averaged the third-most 3-point attempts (43). Last season, they were 26th at 32.1 per game.

Last season, 25.9 percent of Vucevic’s shots were catch-and-shoot treys. This season, that number is 32.6 percent. The frequency of wide-open looks (a defender at least six feet away) has jumped from 23.3 percent to 29.4 percent.

Vucevic is on a heater. There’s no doubt about that, but all of the production isn’t due just to individual excellence. The scheme has changed, which has assisted his hot start.

I’m worried about Tyrese Haliburton. He’s shooting a career-low 40 percent from the field and 33 percent from downtown. The sample size is minuscule for sure, and the body of work for Haliburton would indicate that he’s going to heat up. What’s troubling, though, are his lingering back and hamstring injuries.

Haliburton hasn’t missed a game this season, but he’s been seen wearing a heat pack on the bench, and “I Spy with My Little Eye” that Haliburton isn’t as explosive as he once was.

Below are team stats that may help with streaming:

Field goal percentage allowed

BKN (48.7%) — 30th in pace
IND (48.5%) — 11th in pace
NOP ($48.5%) — 26th in pace
CHI (48.4%) — 3rd in pace
LAL (48.2%) — 25th in pace
WAS (48.1%) — 2nd in pace
PHI (48.1%) — 23rd in pace
UTA (47.8%) — 13th in pace

3-point attempts/conversion rate allowed

ATL — 42.1 attempts and 38.5% conversion rate, both the highest.
MEM — 40.2 attempts but fourth-lowest conversion rate.
SAC — 39.7 attempts and third-highest conversion rate.
CHI — 39.5 attempts but 10th-lowest conversion rate.
UTA — 39.3 attempts and 13th-lowest conversion rate.
GSW — 39 attempts but the lowest conversion rate at 32.7%.
MIA — 38.9 attempts and 14th-lowest conversion rate.