Knock, Knock. Come in.
“Son, I’m a mess right now. My emotions are all over the place. On one hand, I’ve got plenty of shares of Jordan Poole (currently sixth in per-game value) and Buddy Hield (currently 10th in per-game value), but freaking Giannis Antetokounmpo (currently 103rd in per-game value) and Zion Williamson (currently 229th in per-game value) are making me want to pull out my hair, then go to CVS, buy Rogaine and start the process all over again.”
It’s early. Most teams have played seven games this season, with a few at eight and others with six. My handy dandy desktop abacus tells me we are a tick under 10 percent through the season.
We have a long way to go, but the euphoria of having fantasy hoops back is intoxicating, which causes us to have irrational thoughts and make emotional choices.
After the first seven games of last season, Deandre Ayton was the 18th overall player on a per-game basis. Ausar Thompson was 42nd. Ayton was 51st the rest of the season, while Thompson was 209th!
Some other notable players who struggled at the beginning of last season include LaMelo Ball (67th), Trae Young (75th), Bam Adebayo (88th), Domantas Sabonis (94th), Jalen Brunson (127th), Giannis Antetokounmpo (153rd), Cade Cunningham (196th), and Donte DiVincenzo (224th).
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Ball only played 16 games the rest of the season, but he was 12th over that span. Young was 34th the rest of the season, Adebayo 46th, Brunson 21st, Antetokounmpo 29th, Cunningham 71st and DiVincenzo 54th.
Brunson and DiVincenzo were the two who had variables out of their control that greatly influenced their rest-of-season stats. That’s not to say that they wouldn’t have improved, as Brunson wasn’t going to shoot 40 percent from the field the entire season, but the injury to Julius Randle thrust him into the “King of New York” role. Brunson donned the crown, draped the upper 30 percent, often 40 percent, usage rate over his shoulders, and flourished.
DiVincenzo was splitting minutes with Quentin Grimes, then Grimes entered Tom Thibodeau’s dog house and the Randle injury happened, creating a perfect storm for DiVincenzo to cook.
A lot can happen over the next 75 games.
When thinking about early-season struggles, I always think of Yao Ming. The 7-foot-6, 310-pound Ming was the No. 1 pick in the 2002 NBA Draft due to his size and exceptional skill.
But he looked like a bust early on. In his first seven games, Ming averaged 4.3 points, 3.4 rebounds and 0.4 blocks in 14 minutes per game.
In the remaining 72 games, Ming averaged 14.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in 30.5 minutes.
In interviews after his career ended, Ming mentioned that it was incredibly difficult early on because he didn’t play much during the summer, and it took time to adjust to the NBA game, especially the speed and physicality.
Ming told the Players Tribune, “In the CBA [Chinese Basketball Association], my height scared people. When they saw how tall I was, they gave me space to work. In the NBA, every possession was a fight. I learned that big men have to play faster. Back then, in the CBA, the game would usually slow down to the big man’s pace. In the NBA, it was a sprint from the very, very beginning. If you could not run at the same speed as the guards, you could not compete.”
In addition, Ming was coming from China and had to learn a new culture and language while carrying the weight of a country on his shoulders.
We have to remember that NBA players are real people, not 2K pixels. While we try to project production via a spreadsheet, many variables affect performance and development.
Which brings me to Zach Edey.
The 7-foot-4, 305-pound Edey dominated the college ranks, winning National Player of the Year the past two seasons. The Memphis Grizzlies selected him with the ninth overall pick, sliding him into the Steven Adams role, but with expectations for more offensive juice.
Edey appeared to be locked into the starting lineup, giving him the opportunity to approach 30 minutes per game. As a result, he vaulted to the forefront of the Rookie of the Year odds.
Then the season started.
He fouled out in 15 minutes during his debut, scoring five points and grabbing five rebounds. In the second game, he improved with 13 points, nine rebounds, a steal and a block, but he was still hacking and played only 23 minutes. Over the next three games, he did not exceed 18 minutes and grabbed a total of eight rebounds without blocking a shot.
Teams relentlessly attacked him on defense, and he wasn’t receiving many post touches, one of the main allures of his game. Was the open NBA game too much for him? Edey lost considerable weight prior to the season, so was that adversely affecting him?
Still, he was progressing. Edey started fouling less and grabbing rebounds. While he wasn’t posting up on the block, his teammates utilized him as a lob threat and mailbox to drop the ball off to when defenders collapsed.
Then it all clicked on Monday. Edey put up 25 points, 12 rebounds, an assist and four blocks in 29 minutes. Granted, the Nets are extremely “light-in-the-rear” at the center position, but production is production.
Whether this is the start of something magnificent remains to be seen, but the signs have been encouraging. Edey is learning while his teammates begin to understand his game’s nuances and advantages. More importantly, the Grizzlies seem committed to Edey, so he should continue getting opportunities to develop and produce.
Another rookie that I’m extremely high on is Carlton “Bub” Carrington. And I’ve put my money where my mouth … uh, keyboard is?
Anyway, in my lone Main Event team this season, I shelled out $512 out of $999 FAAB dollars for him. The next highest bid was $35, so that stings, but here’s my breakdown:
First and foremost, context is always important. I wanted assists, and the prior week’s bidding consisted of a $400 bid for Terance Mann and three $200-plus bids for Jordan Hawkins, De’Andre Hunter, and Santi Aldama.
When Keyonte George was named a starter last season, I believe it cost nearly $400 to roster him.
Carrington is not only enticing because of his assists, he can also get buckets and does excellent work on the glass. Granted, my perspective is biased because I loved him when he was at Pittsburgh, and I’ve seen what he can do.
That said, I am definitely a fool for not selecting him with my last pick, but there are only four bench slots, and they are so valuable in this league. In addition, while Carrington started from the opener, he played only around 25 minutes and didn’t produce eye-opening stats.
Over the past three games, though, Carrington has played 33, 37, and 33 minutes, respectively. He scored 16 points in two of those contests, and averaged 6.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists. He also had four steals in one of those games.
I tried to figure out why no one else was aggressively bidding on Carrington.
The first thing that came to mind was that Kyle Kuzma has been out the past three games. Carrington started two of the first three games with Kuzma in the lineup. Carrington only played 26 and 25 minutes in those contests, but that was likely due to getting blown out, as the Celtics and Cavaliers beat the Wizards by 20 and 19 points, respectively. In the only game Carrington hasn’t started this season, the Wizards went big with Jonas Valanciunas in the starting lineup.
I doubt that will happen much in the future, except for matchups with a burly center down low. Even then, Carrington produced 13 points, three rebounds, two assists and a steal in 21 minutes.
The second reason I considered is the context of this past week, as there were multiple injuries to the point guard position, including to Jamal Murray, C.J. McCollum and Immanuel Quickley. As Eric mentioned in last week’s article, Ayo Dosunmu has recently become a viable fantasy target. I should’ve factored that more into the FAAB process, so it’s something to learn from and apply in the future.
Whatever the reason for the lack of interest in Carrington, I’m happy with the acquisition.
With the Wizards focused more on development, I think Carrington gets the bulk of the point guard minutes going forward, even when Kuzma and Malcolm Brogdon return. He’s proven that the game isn’t too fast for him and has already produced.
The stat that gives me the most confidence, though, is that he has only turned the ball over eight times on the season, and five of those were in the first three games. Carrington is currently 32nd in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Am I embarrassed that I overbid so extensively? I am not. Does it suck? Sure, as it could prohibit me from future opportunities, but I really don’t care. Bonus points are not given out to those who FAAB the best, and I think the Carrington acquisition has tons of upside, addresses a need, and ultimately makes my squad better.
At the end of the day, that’s all that matters.
(Photo of Zach Edey: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
