It’s the week we’ve been dreading, and a slew of injuries isn’t helping matters during the fantasy playoff push. While there are obvious pickup-and-start guys like Isaac Guerendo this week, most of us will be left with some highly questionable bench warmers to choose from. These players have upside, to be sure, but also significant downside — almost equally likely to score two touchdowns as have two catches for 13 yards.
In this edition of “Brain Games,” we’ll try to rein in the impulse to overthink logical, safe player choices while taking advantage of game theory to optimize our riskier options. The following highlights positional decisions one might be facing. Each scenario pits a safer (high-floor) guy against a more volatile (low-floor, high-ceiling) player. While you might not have these exact choices on your bench, hopefully, you can still take away the process of weighing the variables involved in making the right call.
QB: Geno Smith (at ARZ) OR Caleb Williams (at SF)?
Here’s a classic safe vs. upside decision you might have to make this week. Smith is currently QB12, while Williams is QB14. Smith has the second-most pass attempts (behind Joe Burrow) and third-most passing yards. The floor is there, but a 13:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio is less than inspiring for this kind of volume. He has two rushing touchdowns to go with 226 rushing yards. Williams ranks seventh in pass attempts (411) but 16th in yards. His 60.9 completion percentage is among the worst. He also ranks sixth at QB in rushing yards, with more yards per carry than Lamar Jackson (6.4 vs. 6.1), but he has yet to score a rushing touchdown to supplement his 14 passing TDs.
Matchup-wise, they’re pretty similar. Both face below-average fantasy matchups but not the worst of the worst. The Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears are road underdogs in games with a mid-range over/under (44-45 points). Seattle has a higher implied team total (by less than a point). In a close call like this, a little game theory can help you decide. Will your opponent start any receivers from either team? Using the QB throwing to their receivers could help offset their fantasy gains. What about the rest of your roster? Is it very volatile? If so, I’d go with Geno. But if you’re super solid at the skill positions, Williams could be the wild card you need to push for a high score.
Verdict? With five touchdowns and no interceptions in his past two games (against defensive powerhouses and division rivals the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings), I’m going with Williams unless one of the caveats above applies.
RB: Nick Chubb (at PIT) OR Rachaad White (vs. LV)?
Chubb was greeted warmly by the fantasy community when he first took the field in Week 7, but it’s been a bumpy ride since then. What stands out in a run of mediocrity are the two rushing touchdowns he scored vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12. He also scored again last week on a short reception. Pittsburgh’s defense has been stellar this season, but primarily against the pass. They lead the league in turnovers (2.1 per game), but ball security is not typically an issue for Chubb.
On the other hand, White (RB27 in half-PPR scoring) has been phased out of the Bucs’ passing game lately. He has two targets in his past two games — one per game (down from an average of 4.6 in his previous nine games). His carries haven’t gone down, but Bucky Irving’s stock is rising. The rookie is coming off his best game yet versus the hapless (but improving) Carolina Panthers. He did suffer a minor hip injury in the game, a situation that bears watching, but all early indications are that Irving will be fine. The Bucs take on Las Vegas at home with one of the higher implied team totals this weekend.
Verdict? I’m going with Chubb for the sure-thing workload. It’s possible — even likely — that White will produce 8-plus fantasy points, but I have Chubb in the mid-teens with touchdown appeal.
RB: Tank Bigsby (at TEN) OR Isiah Pacheco (vs. LAC)?
Pacheco has only played in three games this season but sits well ahead of Bigsby in fantasy points per game. The Los Angeles Chargers are a juggernaut defense, allowing the fewest points per game to opponents, and ironically, they’ve been five points better on the road than at home in that statistic. The Kansas City Chiefs are mere 3.5-point favorites at home Sunday night. That’s reason No. 1 for concern. Reason No. 2 is Kareem Hunt. Is he going away? Very unlikely. But I expect Pacheco’s role to increase from the seven carries and one target he saw in his return from injury last week.
Bigsby, meanwhile, returned from an ankle injury in Week 13 but may not have been 100 percent. He was out-touched by Travis Etienne Jr., but Bigsby was the more efficient back, a trend we’ve seen all season. While Bigsby still has the chance to be a bright light in a very dim offense, I am concerned about team morale and functionality under QB Mac Jones and against an above-average run defense in Tennessee.
Verdict? I’m rolling with Pacheco in the hopes that Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid can game plan an effective — and larger — role for him in a tough divisional matchup.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
WR: Jordan Addison (vs. ATL) OR Christian Watson (at DET)?
I’m still haunted by facing Addison during the last “bye-pocolypse” (Week 12), when he scorched the Bears for 162 yards and a touchdown. In general, though, Addison is a volatile fantasy option, with only two receptions for 25 yards (2/25) against the Jacksonville Jaguars but dominating division rivals the Green Bay Packers and Bears this season. Over the past three games, Addison is ahead of Justin Jefferson in both air yards and end zone targets and basically doesn’t leave the field when the Vikings are on offense. The Atlanta Falcons give up the seventh-most fantasy points to WRs, and Minnesota is a home favorite with an above-average team total.
Watson had an amazing Week 11 game (4/150) but has followed up with zero catches in Week 12 and 2/67 in Week 13. He is the definition of low floor/high ceiling. Romeo Doubs is still in concussion protocol, so the opportunity should be there for Watson, who has had the same number of targets and twice as many yards as Jayden Reed over the past three games. Reed has all the touchdowns, though. Detroit is not a great matchup, as they allow the third-fewest points per game to opponents and fourth-fewest overall fantasy points, but the game is expected to be high-scoring with a 51.5-point over/under.
Verdict? I like Addison here unless your opponent starts Jordan Love. Both players have a high ceiling, but Sam Darnold has been the more prolific passer this season, especially lately.
WR: Khalil Shakir (at LAR) OR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (vs. JAX)?
Another Westbrook-Ikhine blurb, really? I understand, but he’s a very interesting case. Obviously, hauling in a touchdown per every 2.5 catches is an unsustainable pace. But he’s really good at catching touchdowns, and why would Will Levis or the Tennessee Titans coaching staff deliberately stray from what’s working?
The Buffalo Bills are the most frustrating fantasy team for wide receivers (and tight ends). Josh Allen is having a career year, yet there is no Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson in Buffalo. Shakir leads Bills receivers in targets, catches and yards by a wide margin but has only two touchdowns (Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman both have three, while Mack Hollins has four). The Los Angeles Rams have an average pass defense that has been a little inconsistent this season but has definitely improved over the second half.
Verdict? I’m taking Shakir. He was close to a bigger game in Week 13, and the Bills are 2-0 at SoFi Stadium the past two seasons.
TE: Grant Calcaterra (vs. CAR) OR Tucker Kraft (at DET)?
Whether or not Dallas Goedert ends up on short-term IR with a knee injury, it seems unlikely he will play in Week 14. DeVonta Smith’s situation is less clear, and I’d put him at more likely to play than not. Still, there has been room for three fantasy-worthy pass-catchers in this Philadelphia Eagles offense before, and Carolina is the dream matchup. The Panthers have an atrocious defense, and they’ve put a real scare in people picking against them in Survivor or at the sportsbooks. Calcaterra could be a reasonable bye-week filler if Carolina can stay in this game long enough to keep Jalen Hurts passing. Reasonable is the key word — if you’re looking for exceptional, I doubt he’s it.
The Packers’ pass offense was one I identified in the offseason as too murky for my taste — tons of talent but no absolute pecking order. Everyone’s targets and usage are all over the place any given week, and Kraft is no different. From one target in Week 12 to seven in Week 13, Kraft’s opportunities have varied greatly this season, as has Jordan Love’s passing volume. Kraft is tied with Reed with six receiving touchdowns, and he’s second in receiving yards. He’s a risky start, but this game should be close and high-scoring, which is the situation I want for a backup TE.
Verdict? Regardless of whether I need five fantasy points or 20, Kraft is the better combination of floor and ceiling. Calcaterra just hasn’t impressed enough with his opportunities, and I think Smith will be back this weekend to take a bigger piece of the pie.
(Top photo of Caleb Williams: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
