Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Running Back Touches
Everyone is going to run to the waiver wire to pick up Isaac Guerendo — at least all the teams still in contention. I get it. He’s obviously the top free-agent option. But there is a very viable Plan B under the radar.
Most are expecting our founding father Alexander Mattison and his 3.3 yards per carry to assume the lead role in the Raiders backfield upon his return from injury. Perhaps. But Sincere McCormick was actually very good against the Chiefs and may get a chance to be the top dog. It’s not going to cost you much of anything to find out if I’m right. It makes sense, admit it. McCormick was No. 23 in market share and Ameer Abdullah, who has also been better than Mattison, was No. 29. Don’t play Mattison.
Jerome Ford was played at the expense of the benched Nick Chubb, which was shocking. This seems to be the kind of move that causes controversy in the locker room — is the difference worth it? I expect Chubb will be the lead back in Week 14.
The Eagles are going pedal to the metal with Saquon Barkley. Maybe they want us to win our playoffs more than they want to win their own.
Rico Dowdle should be starting for you. He’s been in the top 10 the past two weeks now. Ditto Bucky Irving, who is electric (but who may be banged up — check the practice reports). Don’t ask me questions about these guys, who play each other this week.
The Broncos are on bye this week, but is Jaleel McLaughlin the lead back for the Broncos now? I think Sean Payton makes up his mind after the first three carries, which typically go to Javonte Williams.
Fumbling woes have landed Tyrone Tracy Jr. back in more of a timeshare with Devin Singletary. He’s fringy now given the Giants offense is bad.
I’d sign off on Chris Rodriguez Jr. as a $0 add post initial waivers given he’s been effective. I’m holding the minority view that he is the No. 2 back for Washington, not Jeremy McNichols. This could be a valuable role. (Yes, Rodriguez was cut before being re-signed almost immediately.)
Kareem Hunt is no longer playable with Isiah Pacheco back, though that was expected.
Receiver Targets
At No. 18 in percentage, with 12 targets and good efficiency, Parker Washington is the top waiver wire recommendation . He also had two scores if you count the two-pointer.
You can argue Elijah Moore, but Cedric Tillman may be back, so this situation is cloudy. Before the concussion, Tillman had supplanted Moore.
He’s great and the offense is not a problem in Cincy, but why is Ja’Marr Chase in the 30s or worse so many weeks? He should be in the top 10 automatically. Throw him screens if you have to, given that he’s arguably the best run-after-catch guy in the league.
I’m assuming you all are among the low percentage of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine managers. I have to keep mentioning him here though since the market is sleeping on him. He is always on the field and around No. 40 in market share irrespective of his insane TD efficiency. I keep thinking the TDs are unsustainable, but he keeps scoring. I’d much rather have NWI than Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who never even charts (four TDs his past 10 targets).
No. 1 in the report at 50% was Ladd McConkey, who I’ve been saying to start. But now he’s apparently dealing with a knee issue, so make sure you check the practice reports.
Khalil Shakir had a 39% share. If you expect the Bills pass attempts to revert to the league average outside of a blizzard, it’s clear Shakir should be starting.
Percentage-wise, David Njoku was the second-most utilized TE after Brock Bowers, so it wasn’t just the insane passing volume by the Browns.
On the bad side, DeAndre Hopkins is basically an afterthought. The person to add is actually TE Noah Gray, who is seemingly good for about four catches for 50 yards and maybe a TD (or two) every week. This is a two-TE base offense in the passing game. All the WRs are worthless given there’s no way Patrick Mahomes can trust Xavier Worthy in a big spot to do what’s diagramed.
The running backs were non-factors generally in the passing game in Week 13. Weird.
Don’t think Sam LaPorta is turning it around. He was 64th at 17.7%. He’s still not a priority for the Lions, clearly.
It’s alarming that the Cowboys have found success with a passing game that uses CeeDee Lamb as a decoy. They may keep doing that.
(Top photo of Sincere McCormick: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)
