Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Running Back Touches
I mention J.K. Dobbins (No. 6 in the model) first because I don’t understand the mad love for Kimani Vidal, who had six touches on 75 snaps to rank at No. 50. This is all injury speculation for Dobbins. Let’s say his risk of an injury that costs him at least a game is twice the base rate — around 55%. There are 11 games left. So that’s a 5% chance of serious injury each game. You can’t burn a roster spot on a player who is unplayable otherwise for a 20% chance he is a starter in the next month. That math ain’t mathin’!
Alexander Mattison was No. 8, and that’s valuable. Why can’t he be the starter going forward? I’d say that’s likely.
Trey Sermon (No. 14) can be started in Jonathan Taylor’s absence, for as long as that is. That’s with or without Joe Flacco at QB.
Same for Antonio Gibson for as long as Rhamondre Stevenson is out. Gibson is a low-end RB2 where Stevenson, who’s better, was more of a mid-level RB2 — not much of a difference. But maybe with Stevenson out, Gibson actually beats Stevenson because he doesn’t have as much competition for touches. Those are the two sides. You have to come down on one.
Sean Tucker at No. 20 shocks me. He has an interesting story. His draft capital is not really relevant since he had a medical issue with his heart. He’s talented. I like him a lot if the Bucs clear out Rachaad White with a trade, as they should. But without that, he’s a second-wave of waivers type.
Jerome Ford is likely out for weeks, but I don’t know what to make of the Browns backfield. There are rumors Nick Chubb could return this week. Please trade Chubb to anyone who thinks he’ll be what he was before his injury.
We need information on the shoulder of Jordan Mason before bidding on Isaac Guerendo. This is not an injury column and I don’t want to be responsible for misinformation. I’m just guessing like all of you. Mason is officially day-to-day, so I think you hold fire on Guerendo bids.
I think Tyrone Tracy Jr. is going to have a role going forward. It probably will be a fringy-playable one in full PPR, too. He’s a better fit for the offense than Devin Singletary, but Singletary has $9.3 million more guaranteed coming to him. When he’s healthy, I figure it’ll be 60-40 in Singletary’s favor, with Tracy getting the passing game/trailing work.
Ray Davis finished No. 2 in Week 6. He looked very good, too. This is bad news for James Cook when he’s healthy enough to return. I think the Bills offense, given the depressed passing, can support two RBs, Lions-style. There’s no chance a healthy Cook doesn’t get the most snaps, though.
Tank Bigsby at No. 40 with Travis Etienne Jr. out is crazy. Was he benched for fumbling on a kickoff return that the Jaguars recovered? I have no idea what to do with Bigsby. He should be rostered but is a risky start.
Tyjae Spears and Jaleel McLaughlin are droppable. I had hopes for McLaughlin, as many did. He was cheap at least.
Receiver Targets
David Njoku was the No. 1 TE, though these are Deshaun Watson targets. I get the team needs a QB change, but it’s about the money, honey.
Evan Engram was just behind Dalton Kincaid at No. 12 overall (28%). He was very productive with them, too, at 10.2 yards per target. This seemed to come more at the expense of Brian Thomas Jr., who was 56th. That’s just bad football if you’re trying to score points. But it makes Engram a valuable property because he’s the low-leverage weapon who Trevor Lawrence seems to love.
We got the show-me week from Tank Dell, who was No. 10. Start him with confidence for as long as Nico Collins is out. Stefon Diggs ranked 29th (28% to 22% for Dell and Diggs, respectively). Dalton Schultz is another guy who seems to be benefiting from the absence of Collins — Schultz was the TE5 in market share in Week 6.
Totally onboard with a waiver wire pickup of Demario Douglas (No. 13 this week at 27%). You can argue he’s the Patriots’ sure No. 1 WR and maybe the passing game has some hope with Drake Maye.
After waivers run, Noah Brown for $0 is a good move. His QB is good. He got about two-thirds of snaps in Week 6. And he finished with eight targets. Brown had a couple of really explosive games in 2023 for the Texans. Sneaky moves like this is how you win in this game. Brown could be Top 25 in target share in Week 7, too. I mean, he just beat Terry McLaurin in Week 6 in the stat. And they face the Panthers in Week 7.
If you need a tight end this week, rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders has a chance. He was a receiving-dominant prospect. He was expected to be a second-round pick. There are not a lot of weapons on the Panthers. I see 6-to-8 targets against the Commanders this week for Sanders.
KaVontae Turpin is on bye this week but he seems to be a player who is ascending in the Dallas plans. He out-targeted Jalen Tolbert. He has a high usage rate. He seems to be a potentially dynamic playmaking slot player. If you have a roster spot after waivers run for the free pickup, it could pay dividends beginning in Week 8. Dallas needs him.
(Top photo of Evan Engram: Harry Murphy/Getty Images)
