Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Running Back Touches
Zach Charbonnet was a beast — No. 1 in the rankings — but the party is probably ending if Kenneth Walker (calf) is back this week. Charbonnet is playable, but he’s expected to be 50/50 in touches, though with more projected value than Walker given his involvement in the passing game.
Chuba Hubbard is back to being a locked-in bell cow with Jonathon Brooks suffering another ACL injury. Hubbard is a difference-maker in our playoffs, of course.
At No. 10, Tank Bigsby is noteworthy. This is a depressed offense with Mac Jones at QB — he doesn’t have a completion on a pass more than 20 yards downfield this year. There is no explosion, nothing for safeties to really worry about.
Rico Dowdle has one rushing TD. I get it. But he’s second in rushing yards for the past six weeks, coinciding with his carry share increasing from about 45% to 75%. Get him in your lineups. The Week 15 opponent, the Panthers, are 31st in yards allowed per carry.
We don’t know the status of Bucky Irving. You can’t play Rachaad White if Irving is active, but White’s a must-play if Irving is out. The Bucs are one of the top offenses, averaging over 6.0 yards per play.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. was top 20, but he’s really higher given he had 10 targets. There was insane passing volume for the Giants and these are Drew Lock targets. But still… get him in there. His fumble woes have apparently been forgiven, so Devin Singletary vulturing touches is no longer a worry.
Isaac Guerendo has a foot issue. He says he’s fine, but the Niners play on Thursday. You’ll at least be able to make the early-week decision to use him or move on with someone else on your lineup. The Rams are tough of late against the run, but he’s still a must start if active — the Niners run game has been more explosive without Christian McCaffery. If Guerendo is out, pick up Patrick Taylor. However, I don’t have high confidence Taylor will get the vast majority of carries.
Jerome Ford has carved out a committee role with Nick Chubb, a development I did not see coming. Chubb must not be close to 100% from a pain perspective. (We knew he would not be, and probably will never be, close to 100% of what he was.)
Sincere McCormick was 20th and I don’t see him losing the job as primary ball carrier this week, though the offense will likely be depressed with Desmond Ridder at QB. Ridder faces his former Falcons team in Week 15. Atlanta is stingy with rushing TDs but not with points, and we care more about the latter than the former.
Unexpectedly, the Jets running backs were grouped tightly, and if Breece Hall is out again, I’d have Braelon Allen at about RB25 and Isaiah Davis, who is very attainable, at about 32 — not much difference.
I never veer off the past week’s market share list, but remember Jaleel McLaughlin (bye last week) is out there. He’s in the RB30 bucket, too. He has no floor.
Receiver Targets
Parker Washington was a bust for us in Week 14, mostly because Brian Thomas Jr. was fourth in the rankings at 39%.
Jordan Addison was second and has to be played this week with Sam Darnold on pace for nearly 40 TD passes. There’s a narrow passing tree in Minnesota. Addison had 17 more market share points than Justin Jefferson. Darnold is having success passing where the defense isn’t and that’s often away from Jefferson.
Amari Cooper was No. 5. I’d start him against Detroit. There’s a two-TD game coming at some point.
Christian Watson looks to be the primary receiver for the Packers, which does not mean much, I know — it’s a very tight grouping. But, given his air yards and general explosiveness, Watson is the best bet by far for 100+ yards.
Adam Thielen was 10th, landing him in very plausible starting territory.
Joshua Palmer is also in a start-worthy range, though Ladd McConkey’s status is a big factor for the viability of not just Palmer but also Quentin Johnston. If McConkey is out, Palmer and Johnston are must plays against a bad Tampa Bay pass defense.
Ray-Ray McCloud was 15th. I can’t trust anyone on the Falcons. Kyle Pitts has just disappeared though, which boosts McCloud. Again, the Falcons play the Raiders, an average pass defense, which means no edge matchup-wise.
Jalen McMillan was top 30, but the Chargers (his Week 15 matchup) are a top defense.
I can’t trust Xavier Legette despite his similar ranking, even against the Cowboys.
Malik Nabers was 41st at just over 20%. But we can’t ignore QB when making decisions on wide receivers. The Giants situation is bad to an outlying degree. New York is home against the Ravens, a bad pass defense but not as bad a pass defense as Lock is a QB.
(Top photo of Jordan Addison: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images)
