Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Receiver Targets
Tee Higgins (35.9%) finishing at No. 3 was a shock — Ja’Marr Chase finished at No. 12. That’s why they both went off, in addition to the high passing volume. The stacking plan is not good for non-tournaments, generally, because Pro Bowl-caliber WRs on the same team have good scoring outings in the same week less than 25 percent of the time, historically.
George Kittle was the No. 1 TE at No. 6 overall. If you get Kittle at even a 25 percent share, you’re sure to crush your league at the position since he’s been the most efficient tight end in NFL history. He’s been consistent this year, but you know the game-winning explosive weeks are coming — there have been about four per year on average.
Brock Bowers was up over 30 percent, 23 slots higher than teammate Jakobi Meyers. The Broncos are a tight end funnel, though. Don’t pay for this, even though it’s reasonable for Bowers to get this kind of market share going forward.
Darius Slayton was No. 8, and I’d play him every week in every format if I knew he would be in the top 10; that’s how good he is when measured by efficiency. But the Giants don’t seem to respect his game — as they should — for some reason. Imagine feeding Wan’Dale Robinson targets over Slayton. Rank idiocy.
I made fun of the Dontayvion Wicks hype because I’m a fade-the-hype type of guy, but he was No. 19, so he will be solid as long as one or two Green Bay wide receivers are hurt or suspended. Clearing out malcontent Romeo Doubs should be something Wicks managers root for. (Note: I loved Wicks before it was cool.)
Imagine if Brian Thomas Jr. had a top 10 market share. He’s over 11 yards per target. But he’s a rookie, and I guess, given his cost, we can’t be greedy. Still, it could be just on the horizon, and then it’s Murder She Wrote. The thing is, this was easy to see coming. He was inconceivably cheap at WR50 during the draft season. 50! The guy scored a TD on 25 percent of catches last year at LSU.
Javonte Williams was the No. 1 receiving RB. It was a good week for his managers.
CeeDee Lamb was frozen out after saying whatever he said to Dak Prescott. You can’t have Lamb as WR40 on a list like this. That’s madness. But you could say it worked out if you look at the team yardage and not the points. Lamb would not be in the No. 1 WR consideration today, and I thought he was the safest player on the board in August.
Cris Collinsworth and Mike Tirico weigh in on a conversation CeeDee Lamb had with Dak Prescott after a bad interception.
Collinsworth: I’ll let you read your own lips. At Dak. Dak doesn’t react at all. Doesn’t look good.
Tirico: Not a bit. Not a bit. pic.twitter.com/6kTAygmljS
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) October 7, 2024
Rome Odunze, drafted so far ahead of Thomas Jr. (laughably), was WR43, and that’s about where he should be ranked for the rest of the year. The narrative that Caleb Williams is just on a path of linear improvement seems forced and is almost always wrong.
Tucker Kraft landed at No. 50. Unless you think more 65-yard TDs are in his future, you should sell high. Take a similar strategy with Kyle Pitts, who was No. 73. Despite Atlanta’s historic passing volume and production in Week 5, Pitts is likely still a problem.
Darnell Mooney, who my model said to draft given he was being paid so out of line with his fantasy ADP, was the Falcons’ No. 1 WR on this list. He’s still barely owned. Smarten up! I’m tired of talking about Mooney.
Mark Andrews was No. 77 — just gross. That’s below Giants rookie Theo Johnson (a sneaky pickup this week against the Bengals).
Running Back Touches
Kareem Hunt is the big news at No. 3. It wasn’t fumble jail for Carson Steele that gave Hunt the touches in Week 4. He’s the man, period.
D’Andre Swift has to be one of the most bizarre fantasy stories I can remember. The guy was “Dead & Buried” (a great Halloween movie for fans of embalming and witchcraft). Now, even with the lack of goal-line runs (though he did get one), he’s a legit part of a championship puzzle.
Dare Ogunbowale was No. 7 and had a pass-heavy spin. His prospective value is obviously tied to Joe Mixon’s status.
Rico Dowdle was a player I told you to get when he was barely rostered. He did well in the success-rate data last week. He had a breakout game in Week 5 and was RB10. He may be a solid RB2 going forward rather than a low-end RB2. (Note: his fumble on the goal line was due to the defender launching himself right at the ball in a one-in-a-100 shot.)
Yep, we were lied to about Rhamondre Stevenson, but I warned you that was likely last week. Stevenson was the buy low. He finished No. 12. I know the team is bad, but Stevenson is fine as a starter in Flex10 formats (3 WRs and a Flex).
Tank Bigsby earned a higher market share but still finished No. 18 — Travis Etienne Jr. was right behind him at No. 24. I can’t imagine that Bigsby isn’t the team’s No. 1 RB by a wider margin in the future. This front office drafted Bigsby, not Etienne, who will probably depart in free agency.
Bijan Robinson was No. 28, and Atlanta keeps finding reasons not to give him the ball as much as we want. Two coaching staffs now have limited his touches. He’s atrocious in pass protection, but that goes for a lot of backs. Plus, those stats generally are more predictive than descriptive. Maybe Robinson just isn’t mentally picking up assignments, which (of course) is predictive.
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(Top photo of Kyle Pitts: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
