Fantasy Football Rankings Week 10: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | David Montgomery, Sam Howell

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Fantasy Football Rankings Week 10: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | David Montgomery, Sam Howell

Kyler Murray is back, Keaton Mitchell has people excited, and Joshua Dobbs did the unthinkable. It’s been an interesting past week and an intriguing Week 10 is on tap.

The Week 10 fantasy football rankings include the game previews, sleepers and more… plus this week’s “fun with ranks” — the Best Video Game Soundtracks of All Time. You know a song just popped in your head as you read that — Mario or Zelda, which was it?

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Week 10 Waivers | Week 10 SOS Ranks
Fantasy Football 101 (weather, lineups, trading, more)
All in Football Podcast


WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS

** BYES: KC, LAR, MIA, PHI **

NOTE: You’ll see quite a bit of “Since Week 4 or 5,” and that’s because it’s good to look at recent performance versus year-long with defenses, etc., as in-season adjustments can change things. For example, the Broncos were clearly the worst defense early, but since Week 4, they’re midpack — not amazing, but much better than they started.

Acronyms To Know

  • RBTouch% — RB touch percentage — percent of team total RB touches that player had
  • TmTGT% — Team target percentage — percent of team total targets going to that player
  • G2G and GL — Goal-to-Go (inside the 10-yard line) and Goal-Line (inside the 5-yard line)
  • TmTGT% — Percent of the team’s total targets for the player
  • TmAirYD% — Team Air Yard percentage — percent of team total air yards going to that player
  • CPOE — Completion percentage over expectation — allowed completion percentage adjusting for the difficulty of the pass (depth, coverage, etc.)
  • Stuff% — A run that doesn’t go for a touchdown, 4+ yards on first down, or 3+ yards on any other down
  • Explosive Run — Any rush of 15+ yards
  • YPRR — Yards per Route Run — rather valuable indicator

Panthers at Bears, TNF

  • The Bears are the only team since Week 4 to not allow a rushing touchdown (six games — DEN, WSH, MIN, LV, LAC, NO). They’re also allowing a league-low 3.0 YPC with the highest Stuff% and toughest RushEPA.
  • The Panthers have the most favorable RushEPA allowed but are fourth-toughest against slot receivers.
  • Assuming Khalil Herbert returns, I’d put Herbert and D’Onta Foreman as risk/reward RB2/3s. If Herbert doesn’t, Foreman’s a rock-solid Top 15 option.

Colts at Patriots, 9:30 a.m., Germany

  • The Patriots and Chargers are tied for the lowest missed tackle rate given up, at 0.09 per attempt (since Week 4).
  • If Josh Downs is out, I wouldn’t risk Alec Pierce or Isaiah McKenzie in most leagues. Maybe pray for a touchdown with Pierce. If Downs plays, he’s back to WR3 status.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson doesn’t have a single game of 12+ points without a touchdown. The Colts have allowed a running back to score in six of nine games.

Texans at Bengals, 1 p.m.

  • Since Week 4, the Bengals force a league-high 20.8% of drives to end in turnovers (TEN, ARI, SEA, SF, BUF) — Jaguars are second (19.7%) and the Cardinals are last (4.5%).
  • Going back to Week 5, no quarterback has a higher Comp% (75.8) or Passer Rating (111.2) than Joe Burrow, with Patrick Mahomes second in Comp% (71.7) and Justin Fields second in PsRTG (106.8).
  • Since Week 5, Joe Burrow is also third in FPPG and Ja’Marr Chase is second only to Tyreek Hill.
  • Since Week 6 with the split and Dameon Pierce missing last week, Pierce and Devin Singletary are last (43rd) and second-to-last in YD/Touch at 3.2 and 3.3, respectively.

Saints at Vikings, 1 p.m.

  • Since returning, Alvin Kamara is seventh in FPPG, first in TmTGT% (22.0), targets (49), receptions (43) and receiving yards (272). The targets, receptions and yards would rank T-21, fifth and 47th for all players.
  • Travis Etienne is the only running back to top 13.5 points against the Saints, and Derrick Henry and Zack Moss are the only other two with a double-digit score against them.
  • As mentioned in waivers, Trishton Jackson could surprise, as he stepped in outside/as the No. 2 when K.J. Osborn left the game. Brandon Powell could pop too, as secondary and slot options have hit against the Saints with Marshon Lattimore likely focusing on Jordan Addison a good amount.

Packers at Steelers, 1 p.m.

  • The Steelers haven’t allowed an end zone target for a touchdown since Week 4 (0-for-7).
  • Since Week 3, the Steelers, Giants and Chargers have failed to hit the game over (six games PIT and LAC, seven games NYG).
  • Since Week 3, Jordan Love leads in Unrealized Air Yards (Air Yards attempted minus passing yards) at 537. Note: this is not a good stat to have.
  • Even with touchdowns in two of his last three games, Najee Harris is still RB18 in FPPG and hasn’t scored 15+ points since Week 17 last year.

Titans at Buccaneers, 1 p.m.

  • The Titans are tied with the Ravens for the fewest receiving touchdowns allowed since Week 4 — five games (CIN, IND, BAL, ATL, PIT), six for the Ravens and eighth-fewest receiving YPG.
  • Only the Ravens allow a lower percentage of G2G drives to end in a touchdown (42.9% TB — 13 drives, and 40.0% for BAL — 20 drives).
  • The Buccaneers have been hammered by slot receivers, ranking only behind the Falcons for favorable EPA, which means Kyle Phillips is a decent Hail Mary play with Treylon Burks out.

49ers at Jaguars, 1 p.m.

  • The Jaguars have been a sneaky good defense, ranking fourth-toughest in Rush and Pass DVOA, even while allowing the highest opponent play pace and most pass plays per game.
  • When Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are on the field, George Kittle has just 19.6 TmTGT% versus 26.1% when just Samuel is missing.
  • Now-frequent reminder: When Zay Jones plays, the pecking order and fantasy value is: Calvin Ridley, Jones, then Christian Kirk. When Jones is out, it’s Kirk then Ridley.

Browns at Ravens, 1 p.m.

  • The Browns allowed one wideout touchdown in the first five games — George Pickens — also the only one to top 76 yards. They allowed two wideout touchdowns and 81+ receiving yards to three players in Week 7 and 8 (Colts and Seahawks) before shutting down… Clayton Tune.
  • The Browns have allowed all G2G drives to turn into touchdowns but have allowed the second-fewest G2G drives (eight — Titans have allowed six).
  • Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman rank first and second among wideouts in OffTGT% of their targets (wideouts with a minimum 20 targets).
  • Since Week 4, the Ravens allow just 0.96 points per drive — next lowest are the Jaguars at 1.33 — Cardinals league-high 2.52.

Falcons at Cardinals, 4 p.m.

  • Only Brian Hoyer (21.4) and PJ Walker (18.6) have a higher OffTGT% than Taylor Heinicke (16.9).
  • Desmond Ridder targets tight ends more than anyone (36.3%) with Joshua Dobbs second (32.4%) while Heinicke was at just 22.0%.
  • Since Week 4, the Cardinals allow the highest catchable passes (82.0%) with the Buccaneers (81.6%), Broncos (81.4%) and Bears (81.3%) as the only other teams over 80%.

Lions at Chargers, 4 p.m.

  • The Lions have the second-lowest run plays per game allowed (20.5 — Eagles lowest at 17.8).
  • Since David Montgomery’s injury, Jahmyr Gibbs has led the league in YD/Touch at 6.2 (min 20 rushes, 50 touches). Montgomery was a 4.5 through Week 5, 23rd, and still behind Gibbs at 4.7.
  • David Montgomery goes back to the lead, and even if it’s a lesser volume than before, he still has tremendous touchdown upside with eight GL attempts and six touchdowns before being hurt.

Giants at Cowboys, 4 p.m.

  • Only Mitchell Trubisky (31.3) has targeted running backs at a higher rate than Tommy DeVito did (29.6%). Brett Rypien (10.5) and C.J. Stroud (11.5, tied with Matthew Stafford) are the two lowest.
  • Of running backs with 5+ GL rush attempts, Tony Pollard has the fifth-lowest touchdown success rate (20.0% with 2-for-10). Alexander Mattison is 0-for-7, and A.J. Dillon/Alvin Kamara/Dameon Pierce all have converted 1-of-8.
  • The Giants have the second-lowest CPOE allowed (-5.2%) only behind the Ravens (-5.7%) since Week 4.

Commanders at Seahawks, 4 p.m.

  • Antonio Gibson leads the league with just 3.8% of his rushes going for 0 or negative yards (minimum 25 attempts). Second is De’Von Achane (5.3%) and worst is Keaontay Ingram at 42.4% with Jerome Ford behind him at 29.0%.
  • The Commanders (and Eagles) have allowed 13 end zone targets and eight of those to convert for a touchdown since Week 4.
  • Since Week 5, Sam Howell leads the league with 302.0 passing YPG, ahead of Patrick Mahomes at 287.2.
  • The Seahawks haven’t had a quarterback throw for more than 250 yards since Week 3 (Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, Joshua Dobbs, PJ Walker, Lamar Jackson — not a murderer’s row).

Jets at Raiders, SNF

  • The Jets are allowing just 0.98 YPRR since Week 5 with the Ravens second-lowest at 1.17.
  • The Jets have also allowed just three end zone targets, shutting down all three.
  • Jakobi Meyers had the better Week 9 — thanks, rushing touchdown! — but Aidan O’Connell continued to look to Davante Adams the most with 29.2 TmTGT%. Unfortunately, he gets Sauce Gardner and the Jets this week.

Broncos at Bills, MNF

  • The Bills are narrowly behind the Bears in Stuff% (50.0 to 50.3) since Week 4 but have allowed the 10th-most WR FPPG (MIA, JAX, NYG, NE, TB, CIN).
  • The Bills also have the most favorable PassEPA since Week 4, ahead of the Commanders and Cardinals. Jaguars have the toughest.
  • The Bills ran three-wide just 47.9% of the time through Week 6 (second-lowest) but jumped to 86.2% (fourth-highest) since Dawson Knox got hurt (three games).

WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

These are sleepers (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style — Woo-oo is worthy of the risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is if you need a Hail Mary). They will not mimic my rankings 100%. This is about chasing upside and often carries more risk — put simply, they are upside plays you might consider over a solid floor option.

Woo-oo Worthy

  • QB: Baker Mayfield, TB
  • RB: Brian Robinson, WSH; James Conner, ARI
  • WR: Jahan Dotson, WSH; Gabe Davis, BUF
  • TE: Dalton Schultz, HOU

Let’s Get Dangerous

  • QB: Taylor Heinicke, ATL
  • RB: Zach Charbonnet, SEA; Keaton Mitchell, BAL
  • WR: Quentin Johnston, LAC; Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG
  • TE: Trey McBride, ARI

WEEK 10 BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

We’re shifting to a BEST/WORST playoff schedule outlook, since we’re at the point of “buy lows” and “sell highs” being tough to find due to manager knowledge and limited options.

Best Playoff Schedules

  • QB: Kyler Murray, ARI; Josh Allen, BUF
  • RB: Bijan Robinson, ATL; Austin Ekeler, LAC; D’Andre Swift, PHI
  • WR: DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett, SEA; Marquise Brown/Michael Wilson, ARI; Garrett Wilson, NYJ

Worst Playoff Schedules

  • QB: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA; Trevor Lawrence, JAX; Sam Howell, WSH
  • RB: Saquon Barkley, NYG; Dameon Pierce/Devin Singletary, HOU; Joe Mixon, CIN
  • WR: Jaylen Waddle, MIA; Terry McLaurin/Jahan Dotson, WSH; Mike Evans/Chris Godwin, TB

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

After talking about the Disney songs last week, I went down a rabbit hole of video game songs, also with the purpose of sending them to SiriusXM for coming out of breaks. So, this week is the Best Video Game soundtracks of all time. Now, this can be a bit tricky because you could argue individual games versus a series, and break down each in a series, so I’m treating series as one soundtrack. I was originally going to do just songs (individual ones) and maybe I will in the future, but that would have been 90% DuckTales, Mega Man, Mario and Zelda.

Best Video Game Soundtracks

ALL-TIME CHAMPION: DuckTales — You knew this was going to be here. The only thing rivaling the official theme is the Moon Level theme. So, just like last week, let’s talk about the best video game soundtracks all fighting for second-best behind DuckTales.

  1. Super Mario Bros. — You knew this would be No. 1. It doesn’t matter when you started playing video games or what system is your favorite, there is nothing comparable. Arguing with Pat Mayo that SMB2 is a good game and gets way too much hate is actually what made me go into this list too, as the theme is a hella fun listen.
  2. The Legend of Zelda — Could there be anything as memorable as Mario and DuckTales? Heck, they had an entire game making you play songs throughout it on an ocarina… which people made/companies sold for people to try to play in real life.
  3. Mega Man — Particularly Mega Man 2, which could have its own Top 10 list of songs. Dr. Wily Stage ranks Top 10 individual songs of all time.
  4. Mario Kart — Rainbow Road, Mario Circuit, Coconut Mall, Big Blue (F-Zero honorable mention)… just so many great songs.
  5. Super Smash Bros. — It’s kind of cheating since it takes the best of video game soundtracks and includes them in the themed levels, but hey, if you want nearly everything here and more, you can’t beat it.
  6. Donkey Kong Country — From the title theme to the groovy, drum-infused levels — tons of great songs.
  7. Tony Hawk Pro Skater — Particularly THPS2. From Rage Against the Machine to Naughty by Nature to Mos Def to Bad Religion, this soundtrack was near perfection.
  8. Wii — You know the Wii jams hard! Especially the Wii Sports title song!
  9. Sonic the Hedgehog — Green Hill Zone as iconic as the drowning water “music.”
  10. Halo — I can still hear the crescendo of that theme as you’re escaping on the warthog.
  11. Uncharted — Plenty of adventure-exploring-feeling songs but Nate’s theme is the best.
  12. Pokemon — Title song of Red, Blue and Yellow. Enough said.
  13. Final Fantasy — One Winged Angel anyone? This series could have a Top 10 tracks from all the games.
  14. Castlevania — Organ-based terrificness, and I’ll lean to Super Castlevania IV with Simon Belmont’s theme, but Bloody Tears is up there too.
  15. Street Fighter — I’m particular to Guile’s theme, but plenty of great choices.
  16. Metroid — Dinged because the coolest “song” is the 7-8 second appearance of Samus?
  17. Undertale — If you have experienced it, please do… but build up your patience beforehand because it’s also one of the more difficult games/boss battles of all time.
  18. Crazy Taxi — “Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah!” Yeah, it wasn’t full of hits, but no other song wanted to make you drive fast and crazy as Offspring’s, All I Want.
  19. Chrono Trigger — Much like Final Fantasy soundtracks, this ranks among the best of all.
  20. Tetris — The track you’re thinking of is A-Type Music, Korobeiniki.

Honorable Mention: Portal — The cake is a lie but Still Alive being a great song isn’t.

Editors Note: The omissions of Mighty Bomb Jack and Solomon’s Key once again prove Jake has recency bias…or a narrow scope of video game knowledge.

Jake: editor gets strikethrough for trolling absurdity. But the hilarity of this awful take should still be seen by you smart folks.


WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and my ranks are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

Projections Download Link — Saturday Update


WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨

  • There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to properly work.
  • ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
  • Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

(Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)