Fantasy Football Rankings Week 11: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | Jaylen Warren, Jalen Guyton and more

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Fantasy Football Rankings Week 11: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | Jaylen Warren, Jalen Guyton and more

After big performances from Ty Chandler, Devin Singletary, Noah Brown, in addition to the return of Kyler Murray, we have some shakeups to the Week 11 rankings, including the new Steelers “lead” running back, Jaylen Warren… or is he? Get your Week 11 fantasy football rankings, game previews, sleepers and more here, as you set those lineups.

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WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS

** BYES: ATL, IND, NE, NO **

Acronyms to Know

  • RBTouch% — RB touch percentage — percent of team total RB touches that player had
  • TmTGT% — Team target percentage — percent of team total targets going to that player
  • G2G and GL — Goal-to-Go (inside the 10-yard line) and Goal-Line (inside the 5-yard line)
  • TmAirYD% — Team Air Yard percentage — percent of team total air yards going to that player
  • CPOE — Completion percentage over expectation — allowed completion percentage adjusting for difficulty of the pass (depth, coverage, etc.)
  • Stuff% — A run that doesn’t go for a touchdown, 4+ yards on first down or 3+ yards on any other down
  • Explosive Run — Any rush of 15+ yards
  • YPRR — Yards per Route Run — rather valuable indicator

NOTE: ALL of the stats are SINCE WEEK 5 — unless noted. That’s because it’s good to look at recent performance versus year-long with defenses, etc., as in-season adjustments can change things. For example, the Broncos were the worst defense early on, but since Week 5, they’re Top 10 (difficult).

Bengals at Ravens, TNF

  • When Tee Higgins missed Week 5, Ja’Marr Chase dominated the targets with 43.2 TmTGT%, going 19-15-192-3, and Trenton Irwin was second with 10-8-60-0, ahead of Tyler Boyd at 7-6-39-0. Last week, Boyd led with 30.8 TmTGT% while Chase had 6-5-124-1 and Irwin 4-2-54-1. I’d expect more of last week against the Ravens, as they’ve been more vulnerable to the slot than outside receivers.
  • Joe Burrow had a 57.6 Comp%, 69.1 Pass Rating, 1.3% TD/ATT and 7.9 FPPG through Week 5, and 74.1%, 107.0, 6.1% and 21.4 since — all Top 5.
  • Lamar Jackson is mid-pack in OFFTGT% (11.6), but Odell Beckham (25.7%) and Rashod Bateman (24.1%) rank first and T-4, respectively, for the highest percent of targets that are OFFTGT this year (min 20 targets).

Steelers at Browns, 1 p.m.

  • The Browns and Steelers allow the two lowest Comp% for opposing QBs (56.9 and 57.9, respectively).
  • Deshaun Watson ranks 32nd (58.0%) and Kenny Pickett 25th (61.9%) among the 37 QBs with 50+ attempts.
  • Through Week 9, Najee Harris had 56.9 RBTouch%, 8.5 FPPG and 4.2 YPT while Jaylen Warren had 42.1%, 8.5 FPPG, 5.6. In Week 10, when reports say Warren was told he would be the “starter,” Harris had 52.8 RBTouch%, 17.1 points and 5.1 YPT to 47.2%, 18.0 and 6.5 for Warren, who is also third in missed tackles forced per rush (0.46) while Harris is T-31 (0.22) among RBs with a minimum of 25 attempts.
  • Harris has a rushing touchdown in three of the past four games, and the Browns have actually given up seven rushing touchdowns, second only to the Colts/Giants/Panthers with nine.
  • The Browns also allow the most YPR at 13.0, tied with the Bengals. The Jets allow the lowest at 9.0, tied with the Bears.

Bears at Lions, 1 p.m.

  • The Bears have the highest Rush% (50.6), with the Browns narrowly behind (50.4).
  • The Bears are only getting quarterback pressure 27.5% of the time, with the Patriots second-lowest at 28.3%, but they continue to have the highest defensive Stuff% on runs and haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 3.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has the lowest percentage of rushes going for zero or negative yards at 9.8%, with Aaron Jones second at 10.4%.
  • Khalil Herbert has 5.3 YPC and 5.8 YPT to D’Onta Foreman’s 4.3 and 4.4, but Foreman has three rushing touchdowns to none for Herbert and more FPPG (11.8 to 9.3). I’d expect these two to split in Herbert’s first game back.

Chargers at Packers, 1 p.m.

  • Opposing quarterbacks have a league-high 70.2 Comp% against the Chargers, with the Texans second at 69.5%.
  • Jordan Love has a 60.7 Comp%, which is T-30 out of 37 QBs with at least 50 attempts.
  • In Jalen Guyton’s second game, he ran the same number of routes as Quentin Johnston and had six targets to Johnston’s four, plus, Guyton spent time in the slot and wide, while Johnston was 90% out wide. Guyton could find slightly more value than Johnston if things continue this way.
  • Christian Watson leads the Packers in TmTGT% (22.3) when he’s on the field, but that’s resulted in just 33-14-236-1 compared to 27-16-143-3 for Romeo Doubs and 14-11-156-2 for Jayden Reed.

Raiders at Dolphins, 1 p.m.

  • The Dolphins have scored a touchdown on 32.1% of their drives, second-best in the league — the Eagles first (35.4%) and Cowboys third (30.4%).
  • The Dolphins offensive line continues to dominate with a league-best 21.0% quarterback pressure rate, with second best being the Patriots at 27.4%.
  • Surprisingly, the Dolphins have the largest average distance to go on third downs (for a first down) at 9.2 yards, with the Cardinals second at 8.5 — they’re still 19th in 3DConv% (37.9), while the Giants and Jets are worst (26.3% and 23.9%).
  • For the season, Davante Adams is one of 15 wideouts with 20.0%+ of his targets being off-target (20.4) and it jumps to 27.3% with Aidan O’Connell, which would be the highest in the league. O’Connell also has the highest percent of INT+FUM per play (6.4% for the year), tied with PJ WalkerTyson Bagent is next at 5.4%.

Giants at Commanders, 1 p.m.

  • Giants allow a 45.1% quarterback pressure rate — league-worst — with the Titans at 44.9%.
  • They also have the highest 3-and-Out% (52.0), with the Patriots second at 43.1.
  • The Commanders rush the least — by far — with 28.2 Rush%, and the Bengals are second at 34.3%.
  • Saquon Barkley leads in rushes per game (22.0), followed by Josh Jacobs at 20.7.
  • Jahan Dotson goes from a 12.4 TGT% to 17.6% when Curtis Samuel isn’t on the field, including 3.6 to 6.5 TD/TGT% and 8.7 to 12.8 YD/REC. If Samuel is playing, Dotson is John Cena.

Cowboys at Panthers, 1 p.m.

  • The Cowboys are the only team to have the game’s over hit four times (five games).
  • Dak Prescott has the highest TD/ATT% at 7.9, followed by Brock Purdy at 7.2%.
  • With another 0-fer in GL touchdown rushes (0-for-3 in Week 10), Tony Pollard is the only running back with 7+ attempts and zero touchdowns since Week 2.
  • Back to OffTGT%, Jonathan Mingo is at 24.4%, turning 45 targets into just 23-220-0 despite 95.0%+ routes and 19 targets over the past four games.

Titans at Jaguars, 1 p.m.

  • Travis Etienne has the highest percentage of rushes going for zero or negative yards at 30.8% (minimum 25 rushes), ahead of Alexander Mattison (28.4%) and Darrell Henderson (25.0%).
  • Week 10 was just the third game in which Derrick Henry didn’t have 2+ targets and 2+ receptions (Weeks 3-4), and it was just his third single-digit score.
  • Will Levis has the lowest INT+FUM per play on the year (1.7%) but is 40th worst in Turnover Worthy% (FantasyPts) at 7.5% — Jared Goff is best at 1.5%.

Cardinals at Texans, 1 p.m.

  • Before Week 10, the Cardinals had a -0.13 EPA/Play, -0.17 per Dropback and 4.7 YD/Play. With Kyler Murray back, those all improved to -0.04, -0.12 and 5.9. Those were all mid-pack instead of the Bottom 7 for each.
  • Texans have -0.15 EPA/Play, -0.24 EPA/Rush and 4.3 YD/Play with Dameon Pierce on the field compared to +0.13, -0.02 and 6.6 without him.
  • Through Week 7, Trey McBride was TE32. Over the past three weeks, he’s TE4, jumping to TE16 on the year.
  • The Texans have allowed 21 receptions of 20+ yards (T-5 most) and the fifth-highest AirYD/ATT at 8.70 — this helps Marquise Brown this week.

Buccaneers at 49ers, 4 p.m.

  • Brock Purdy leads the league with 14.4 YD/Comp, with C.J. Stroud second at 13.9 and Matthew Stafford third with 13.3.
  • The 49ers have given up a 100+ yard receiving game to a wideout in four straight games.
  • The Buccaneers have the second-toughest RushEPA (behind the Bears) but the third most-favorable PassEPA and most-favorable WR EPA overall.
  • The Buccaneers also allow the highest Passing YPG (319.2) and Adjusted Net Yards per pass (7.87), plus the third-highest CPOE (5.8%).

Jets and Bills, 4 p.m.

  • The Jets have a league-worst 1.3% of drives ending in a touchdown — the Giants are the only other team under 3.0% (1.9%).
  • The Jets force the most quarterback pressure at 47.5% — the Browns are second at 46.0%.
  • Zach Wilson and PJ Walker are the only two quarterbacks with just one passing touchdown.
  • The Bills have the most favorable PassEPA, ahead of the Commanders and Buccaneers, and are third-most favorable for WR (behind both those teams).

Seahawks at Rams, 4 p.m.

  • No receiver has topped 89 receiving yards (Amari Cooper) since Week 3 (NYG, CIN, ARI, CLE, BAL, WSH) against the Seahawks.
  • The Seahawks also have the eighth-lowest PPG and Points per Dropback, ninth-lowest Pass YPG, 10th-lowest PassEPA and third-lowest YPR in that span.
  • In the three games before the bye, Darrell Henderson had 58.2 RBTouch% and Royce Freeman 41.8, with 7-6-75-0 for Henderson receiving and no receptions for Freeman.
  • DK Metcalf had a touchdown against the Rams in Week 1, but since then, he has just one more touchdown, and the Rams have allowed just three to wideouts since (all three for the Cowboys).

Vikings at Broncos, SNF

  • Jordan Addison actually has a higher TD/TGT% (12.0) with Justin Jefferson on the field than without him (9.8).
  • Russell Wilson leads the league with 6.9% TD/ATT, ahead of Justin Fields at 6.8% and Tua Tagovailoa at 6.2%.
  • The Vikings have allowed just one running back to rush for more than 65 yards (D’Onta Foreman) this year after D’Andre Swift went off in Week 2.
  • The Broncos have allowed just 16.0 FPPG to wideouts, the seventh lowest, while facing NYJ, KC, GB, KC, BUF.

Eagles at Chiefs, MNF

  • Chiefs are the only team not to have a game hit the over (five games).
  • The Chiefs have the lowest 3-and-Out% (21.1), followed by the Lions (22.2).
  • The Eagles have just one rushing touchdown allowed — two on the season — and no running back has rushed for more than 59 yards this year.
  • The Chiefs have created just 0.78 yards before contact, second-lowest only to the Buccaneers at 0.61.

These are sleepers (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style — Woo-oo is worthy of the risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is if you need a Hail Mary). They will not mimic my rankings 100%. This is about chasing upside and often carries more risk — put simply, they are upside plays you might consider over a solid floor option.

Woo-oo Worthy

  • QB: Joshua Dobbs, MIN
  • RB: Aaron Jones, GB; Brian Robinson, WSH
  • WR: Amari Cooper, CLE; Marquise Brown, ARI
  • TE: Jake Ferguson, DAL

Let’s Get Dangerous

  • QB: Russell Wilson, DEN
  • RB: Najee Harris, PIT; Darrell Henderson, LAR
  • WR: Rashee Rice, KC; Jayden Reed, GB
  • TE: Luke Musgrave, GB

WEEK 11 BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

Shifting to a BEST/WORST playoff schedule outlook, since we’re at the point of “buy lows” and “sell highs” being tough to find due to manager knowledge and limited options.

Best Playoff Schedules

  • QB: Russell Wilson, DEN; Josh Allen, BUF
  • RB: Austin Ekeler, LAC; Bijan Robinson, ATL; D’Andre Swift, PHI
  • WR: DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett, SEA; Courtland Sutton, DEN; DeAndre Hopkins, TEN

Worst Playoff Schedules

  • QB: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA; Sam Howell, WSH
  • RB: Dameon Pierce/Devin Singletary, HOU; Joe Mixon, CIN; Saquon Barkley, NYG
  • WR: Jaylen Waddle, MIA; Terry McLaurin; Mike Evans/Chris Godwin, TB

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

We wrapped up the Loki series last week, and I said it was the best thing Marvel has done since Infinity War/Endgame and Spider-Man: No Way Home. Interestingly, some said they didn’t love the ending. I think that has to do more with it subverting expectations (and happiness to a degree), as it was a near-perfect finale. That is how I decided to rank the best show finales of the 2000s.

NOTE: I did not watch The Wire or Sopranos, so I’m not saying their finales aren’t Top 10 — I just didn’t see them.

As for Loki, I considered putting it in the Top 10, but since there are enough people who haven’t watched it/made it that far yet, I’m just giving my opinion… SPOILERS…

Loki: Glorious Purpose — MAJOR SPOILERS — I thought this was a wonderful end to this Loki’s arc. He finally has his throne, though not what he ever intended, as he chooses to save all of the timeline branches by making the tough choice. Intense, funny, emotional… just great stuff.

Best Show Finales

  1. Friends: The Last One — “I got off the plane!” Perfect wrap-up… well, except Joey never ended up with anyone — not even a reunion with Kate. Plus, one final ad-lib line from Matthew Perry with the, “Where?” quip at the end.
  2. The Clone Wars: Victory and Death — One of the best series of all time! Ahsoka, Rex, Darth Maul (yes!), the pain of the clones turning on each other, the somber “graveyard,” Darth Vader finding her lightsaber. Amazing.
  3. Better Call Saul: Saul Gone — The black and white style fit well with what ended up being a send-off to Jimmy, accepting his crimes and doing so all because of love.
  4. Justified: The Promise — Such a terrific and underrated show. All the story threads tie together, Art on board, back to Miami and the final reunions (Ava and then Boyd) and… “We dug coal together.”
  5. Shield: Family Meeting — Could hear a pin drop waiting for Mackey to confess. Arguably was the Breaking Bad type ending before Breaking Bad, which is why it’s ahead of it…
  6. Breaking Bad: Felina — The turret gun, rescuing Jesse, asking Jesse to finish the job and the phone call. Just gripping TV.
  7. Ted Lasso: So Long, Farewell — AFC Richmond can win the Premier League, Ted is going home, the team sings the title of the show, Nate is back and redeemed, Rupert finally gets his comeuppance, Sam gets to play for Nigeria, the BELIEVE sign is back, and one final, “Be a goldfish” from Ted. We’ll miss you, Coach Lasso!
  8. Suits: One Last Con — The firm and Harvey are backed up against a wall, as there is seemingly no escape from Faye. The one last con gives everyone freedom — in differing ways — with Harvey back with Mike in a new way, which, I would love to see brought back in a spin-off (but it won’t happen).
  9. BoJack Horseman: Nice While It Lasted — In a show that constantly bucked tropes (pun intended), it surprises one more time with Bojack simply choosing to accept and move forward.
  10. New Girl: Engram Pattersky — Winston kept getting crazier with pranks and the finale’s craziness balances perfectly, ending with a True American game… something we still need made for our enjoyment.

Honorable Mention

  • Big Bang Theory: The Stockholm Syndrome — I know there are plenty of people who didn’t even like the show, but I spent a large chunk of my young-adult life watching this with my mom, and I enjoyed it. And don’t give me the “laugh-track” hate, as Friends and Seinfeld — two of the all-time greats — had it. The finale had laughs and struggles, as Sheldon shows his biggest moment of growth yet, as all of the storylines are wrapped up (mostly). Although, like Friends, one member (Raj) ends up as the only single one of the group… well, maybe?
  • Brooklyn Nine-Nine: The Last Day (Part 1 and 2) — A finale heist double-cross, Jake has a new meaning/goal for his life, Terry finally gets captain. Tons of laughs and heart, which we felt for years.
  • Community: Emotional Consequences of Broadcast Television — The members imagine a Season 7 with their pitches, everyone shows how they’ve grown, are off to new stories, and of course… “and a movie.”

WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and my ranks are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

Projections Download Link — Saturday


WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨

  • There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to properly work.
  • ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
  • Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

(Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)