This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 5 games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.
The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.
Is it time to worry about Breece Hall? Or is this a buy low opportunity?
Hall gave fantasy managers plenty to celebrate in Weeks 1-3. He scored 18 or more points in every game and ranked fifth in running back scoring in that time frame.
That has changed for the worse in recent weeks. Hall averaged 5.3 PPG over the past two weeks, a pace that ranks 52nd among running backs in that span.
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A brutal set of matchups against Denver and Minnesota is the main reason for the drop off. The Broncos and Vikings rank ninth and first, respectively, in PPG allowed to opponent’s running backs on rushing plays this year. That schedule luck is about to change somewhat with New York facing Buffalo (20th in RB PPG allowed) and Pittsburgh (ranked fifth) over the next two weeks. It will get dramatically better after that, with five green-rated rush defense matchups on the schedule in Weeks 10-16.
This schedule largesse makes Hall a fantastic buy low candidate if he is not on your roster and you can put together a reasonable trade offer. If he is on your team, resist any trade offers and be patient, because the high-scoring days are about to return.
Is it time to trade Bijan Robinson?
Fantasy managers did not draft Robinson early in Round 1 of fantasy drafts to get a No. 22 ranking in RB points after Week 5.
So, what’s the problem? It isn’t work volume. Robinson has posted 86 scrimmage plays this year, a total that ties him for 13th at this position. Some of it is touchdowns, with Robinson finding the end zone only once this year, yet it is tough to not like the upside of an Atlanta offense that just posted 30 points against a solid Tampa Bay defense.
That upward trend may continue given the Falcons’ favorable rush defense schedule. Atlanta faces Carolina, Seattle and Dallas in three of the next four weeks, and those defenses rank 32nd, 23rd, and 26th, respectively, in RB PPG allowed on rushing plays.
This is another instance where fantasy managers should stay the course and not throw in the towel on Robinson, since 20-plus-point games may be nearing. And like Hall, this may be an opportune time to put in a trade offer for Robinson.
Is Caleb Williams a must-start or trade high candidate?
Chicago built what looked to be a strong passing offense around Williams, yet he tallied only 14.58 total points over the first two weeks of the season. His trajectory has changed for the better since then. Williams ranks 10th in pass PPG in Weeks 3-5 with a 15.6-point pace. He has posted only 1.8 rush PPG (16th in that category), but in four different games he has run the ball five times. That makes Williams one of only eight quarterbacks to do so this season.
Now let’s look at how this newfound production level might spin forward. We’ll start by noting that Chicago has four green-rated rush defense matchups and no yellow-rated rush defense matchups in Weeks 5-11. That factor will lead the Bears to rely on the ground game in most of these contests.
The rush defense trend changes dramatically in Weeks 11-16 with five red-rated rush defenses in a row. It may be the most brutal late-season rush defense schedule in the league, and it will push the Bears to rely on Williams’ passing skills during the fantasy football stretch run and playoffs.
That’s not the only schedule-related factor in Williams’ favor. I have a metric called shootout points that measures the likelihood a team will be involved in scoreboard shootout (defined as when both teams score 24 or more points in a matchup). From Weeks 8-17, all but one game on Chicago’s schedule (the Week 10 contest against New England) rates as green-rated in this shootout points category, suggesting we could see a number of those scoreboard shootouts.
Combine these matchup factors and Williams may see his fantasy scoring value hover around the QB1 level from now until the end of the season. This means fantasy managers should definitely consider placing him into starting lineups during the favorable matchups.
Another strategy is to pursue a trade for Williams during Chicago’s Week 7 bye. If you can pull that deal off, it may be just the thing that helps your team get some valuable wins later this year.
Is Daniel Jones a reliable fantasy starter?
Jones has three games with 18-plus points over the past four weeks. That puts him on a short list, as only five quarterbacks this season have tallied three games of 18 or more PPR points: Sam Darnold also has three such games, while Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels each have four.
What makes Jones’ performance even more incredible is that he’s done it despite scoring zero rushing touchdowns. That may seem odd for a rush-centric quarterback, but with only one rushing touchdown in his past 11 games, that might be the new normal for Jones. And while that sounds like it could be a negative, it actually suggests his fantasy production may be more sustainable than if his points were touchdown dependent.
Another plus is that Jones just posted a season-high 22.08 points at Seattle, despite not having Malik Nabers in the lineup. That’s the kind of thing that suggests Jones may be the real deal this year.
The schedule says there are more “real deal” games in Jones’ future. Four of the Giants’ next five games are against Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Washington and Carolina. The Eagles rank 19th in pass PPG allowed this year, and the other three clubs rank between 26th and 30th in this category.
The Week 8 matchup at Pittsburgh may be one in which you’d bench Jones, but outside of that, every matchup from now until New York’s Week 11 bye looks like a situation in which a fantasy manager should happily start Jones.
This is another case where you want to keep Jones on rosters, or trade for him if a manager in your league is not sold on Jones’ longer-term value.
Is this the end of the tight end scoring drought?
Last week’s edition of this article noted the dearth of quality tight end candidates and provided some insights to navigate this barren fantasy scoring landscape, but Week 5 brought welcome news. For proof, consider how many tight ends scored 10 or more points in Weeks 1-5.
Week 1: 5
Week 2: 8
Week 3: 6
Week 4: 10
Week 5: 15
This is actually better than it looks at first glance, as Week 5 had four teams on a bye, the first such week of the season. More productive tight ends with fewer teams playing would seem to bode well.
Some of those double-digit point candidates in Week 5 may be available on waivers, including Tucker Kraft (69.7 percent roster rate), Isaiah Likely (57.9), Brenton Strange (9.3), Colby Parkinson (48.1) and Tyler Conklin (37.2).
Get one of those waiver options or continue to follow the streaming strategy suggested in the aforementioned article and it may be time to start expecting solid point totals out of this position once again.
(Top photo of Breece Hall: Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
