Bye weeks are here, which means the Week 5 fantasy football waiver wire might be the most-important yet. There are still a few running backs who can step in this week and some great wide receiver pickups. As always, I’ll cover some of the biggest worries and major breakouts through the first four weeks.
HEADS UP
- Players must be under 60% rostered on Yahoo
- Listed in order of preference — I’ll regularly prioritize potential upside over immediate replacement production
- RB backups have a separate secondary list based on only if the lead option got hurt
- No FAB suggestions: It varies wildly by league tendencies and always relative (ex: if you lost your RB1 to injury and there is a clear backup, you’re going to be more aggressive)
- Streaming QB and TE are grouped together — weekly ranking can change once projections/ranks run — DST could shift a bit too
- Emojis for brevity
- 😏 = mentioned multiple times, multiple weeks — either you want him, or don’t
- 🫡 = Next Man Up but with deeper startability
WORRY REPORT
(Scale 1-5: more ducks = more worry)
- Breece Hall, RB, NYJ — 🦆🦆 — The good: Hall is still explosive (26.4% explosive yards per fantasy points, a Top 25 mark — Braelon Allen is at 15.4%) and seeing the majority of passing game and third-down work. The bad: Hall is getting stuffed at a higher rate with lower Missed Tackle% (0.14 to 0.26 for Allen) and yards after contact per rush (2.71 to 3.37). Through four weeks, Hall has all four goal-to-go attempts and all four goal-line rushes. However, if Allen continues to force the issue, he could eat into a 60/40 split with some valuable touchdown opportunities.
- Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ — 🦆🦆🦆🦆 — If you drafted Wilson as a Top 8 option (his ADP), you’re at a four (ducks). If you saw him the way I did, as more of a fringe WR1, then you’re at a two. Either way, there is some concern through four games. Wilson is leading the Jets with a 25.6 TmTGT% — Hall and Allen Lazard tied for second at 18.0% — but he has only one touchdown, five red zone targets and one end zone target — Lazard has those same numbers. Aaron Rodgers’ play and the limited touchdowns could force Wilson into mid-low WR2 territory, but I’d still buy low if someone is panicking (I’d send Terry McLaurin or Diontae Johnson for him straight-up, for example).
- Zay Flowers, WR, BAL — 🦆🦆🦆🦆 — This is the life of the Ravens offense, and that was before Derrick Henry meant the offense could pass even less often. Lamar Jackson is on pace to throw nearly the same amount as last year but in 17 games instead of 16. Flowers is an inconsistent WR3, and in PPR, he might be a WR4.
- Mark Andrews, TE, BAL; Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL — ♾🦆 Andrews and 🦆🦆🦆🦆 Pitts — We’ve talked a lot about the tight end position this year, and it’s time to “Frozen” it — aka, let it go! Move to WR/TE instead of TE-only, but aside from that side conversation, Andrews failed his “final” attempt to give us any confidence. While his struggles tie to the Flowers dilemma, Andrews had one target while lining up at tight end just 4.0% of the snaps (wide 32.0%, slot 56.0%). Andrews is now lining up just 20.1% of the time as a tight end this year with the fifth-highest TmTGT% at a mere 8.7%. He’s done in fantasy. As for Pitts, he’s also fifth on his team at 13.3% with a much-higher percentage at tight end (56.5%), with 13.7% wide and 29.8% slot. Pitts at least has three each of red zone and end zone targets, so while he’s far from a Top 5 tight end, he holds a glimmer of hope to be a back-end TE1… but that says more about this wasteland of a position.
POWER UP PLAYERS
(Scale 1-5: more mushrooms = more excitement)
- Sam Darnold, QB, MIN — 🍄🍄🍄🍄 — Only Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen have a higher fantasy points per dropback rate than Darnold’s 0.67. That’s impressive, as Anthony Richardson is sixth, and there is a big difference to those other four. We understand Darnold’s touchdown rate will regress — 10.4% is 3.5 higher than Allen in second place and would be a record over Peyton Manning’s 2004 mark of 9.9%. Nevertheless, Kevin O’Connell is maximizing Darnold’s talent, and it helps to have Justin Jefferson, so buying into Darnold’s breakout is justified. Don’t forget T.J. Hockenson returns at some point, so while Darnold isn’t this good, he looks to be a guaranteed QB1.
- Jayden Reed, WR, GB — 💪🏼🍄 — More FPPG at wideout than Reed: A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Malik Nabers and Justin Jefferson. That’s it. It helps that he’s leading all wideouts with 91 rushing yards — Xavier Worthy is second at 39 — and saying Reed is Deebo Samuel-like is far from crazy. Reed has a real chance to be a WR1 in 2024.
- Ladd McConkey, WR, LAC — 🍄🍄🍄 — McConkey is what Justin Herbert needed this year with no more Keenan Allen. McConkey is 11th in TmTGT% (26.7) with the 10th-highest TmTGT% on 1-2 down and 24th-highest on third. He’s Herbert’s go-to option, and McConkey is a rock-solid WR3 with great floor and modest ceiling.
STREAMING QUARTERBACKS
- Geno Smith, SEA (vs NYG)
- Justin Fields, PIT (vs DAL)
- Kirk Cousins, ATL (vs TB)
- Matthew Stafford, LAR (vs GB)
- Sam Darnold, MIN (vs NYJ)
- Deshaun Watson, CLE (at WSH)
- Daniel Jones, NYG (at SEA)
- Trevor Lawrence, JAX (vs IND)
- Derek Carr, NO (at KC)
- Andy Dalton, CAR (at CHI)
WAIVER WIRE RUNNING BACK RANKS
- Kareem Hunt, KC — If he’s still available, certainly take a shot, but just as with Carson Steele before, don’t overpay. There is no guarantee that the Chiefs are done with mixing in Steele. You have to take the chance on Hunt as an RB2 but also see below at No. 6…
- Trey Sermon, IND — On volume, Sermon ranks No. 1, but even in his “best” season (2023), Sermon only forced 0.11 missed tackles per attempt, which ranked 80th (min. 25 carries) behind names like Jeff Wilson Jr., Darrynton Evans, Pierre Strong and more. Similar to Cam Akers the past few weeks, if you need running back help, you have to chase the volume, but it’s likely inefficient and Jonathan Taylor is out only a few weeks. If thinking purely long-term, I’d rather have all options through Rico Dowdle (Akers situation notwithstanding).
- Bucky Irving, TB — 😏 Now in a near-even 50/50 split.
- Braelon Allen, NYJ — 😏 If he starts getting goal-line work, Allen will be startable each week.
- Cam Akers, HOU — As previous weeks, only here if Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce are out.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC — Edwards-Helaire is eligible to return to practice, and his issue was mental. So, if CEH is ready to play, he’s also worth grabbing and stashing, as he’s led before and could again. Though, this could be a complete mess of a committee.
- Rico Dowdle, DAL — 😏
- Alexander Mattison, LV — I’m not starting Mattison yet, but Antonio Pierce sounded as if he’s willing to give Mattison a run at the lead.
- Justice Hill, BAL — 😏
- Tyler Allgeier, ATL — 🫡
- Tank Bigsby, JAX — 🫡 Travis Etienne still out-touched Bigsby while dealing with a shoulder injury.
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — Could be due to the game-script, but Wilson is worth monitoring for potential Hill-like value.
- Roschon Johnson, CHI — Similar to Hill in use but less productive/consistent for now.
- Antonio Gibson, NE — 🫡
- Ty Chandler, MIN — 🫡
- Tyrone Tracy, NYG — 🫡
- Jaylen Wright, MIA — Raheem Mostert sounds as though he’ll return in Week 5, but on the off chance he’s not and/or DeVon Achane ever missed time, stashing Wright is smart.
- Dare Ogunbowale, HOU — Only here if Mixon and Pierce are out, and even then, “The Goon” is Gibson-like.
MEH, I’LL PASS
- Samaje Perine, KC — See above with Hunt and CEH. Even with Steele fumbling, Perine had just 20.8 RBTouch%.
- Jeremy McNichols, WSH — This is merely about Austin Ekeler being out.
DUMPSVILLE
(order I’d drop)
- Ezekiel Elliott, DAL — How has every team not dumped him yet?
- Jaylen Warren, PIT — Only if you don’t have an IR spot, but per reports, he’s weeks away.
PURELY NEXT MAN UP RANKS
(if an injury ahead of them)
- Braelon Allen, NYJ
- Bucky Irving, TB
- Tyler Allgeier, ATL
- Tyjae Spears, TEN
- Isaac Guerendo, SF
- Chase Brown, CIN
- Jaylen Wright, MIA
- Tank Bigsby, JAX
- Ty Chandler, MIN
- Emanuel Wilson, GB
- Trey Benson, ARI
- Ray Davis, BUF
- Gus Edwards, LAC
- Jamaal Williams, NO
- Kenneth Gainwell, PHI
- Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG
- Ronnie Rivers/Blake Corum, LAR
WAIVER WIRE WIDE RECEIVER RANKS
- Dontayvion Wicks, GB — As I mentioned on the “Speed Run” pod, if Christian Watson wasn’t on the Packers this year, Wicks would have ranked No. 2 behind Jayden Reed for me, and it would have been very close. Wicks has NFL No. 1 wideout ability, and with him running as a top-two option, WR3 value is likely the floor.
- Ladd McConkey, LAC — With offensive line issues, Justin Herbert’s quick read and safety option is McConkey.
- Josh Downs, IND — Also from the pod, whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco, I’m happy with Downs. He fits Richardson’s style very well and will be the consistent and more-valuable option than Michael Pittman Jr. If it’s Flacco, both Pittman and Downs are startable in almost every league.
- Darnell Mooney, ATL — 😏
- Xavier Legette, CAR — It happened! Good news is that Jonathan Mingo was the primary slot receiver, and Legette ran just one fewer route (same as Diontae Johnson) and had 25.0 TmTGT%, including 24.1% on 1-2 downs (Johnson at 31.0%).
- Tyler Lockett, SEA — 😏
- Quentin Johnston, LAC — 😏 Rough matchup with OL issues for the Chargers. Keep on the bench and keep patient.
- Romeo Doubs, GB — 😏 Now behind Wicks though.
- Tutu Atwell, LAR — Running as a top-two option and the Rams’ version of Jayden Reed, but Atwell is a WR4.
- Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG — If Malik Nabers is out, the insane volume should continue and puts Robinson in the WR3 conversation. If Nabers plays, Robinson is more of a WR4 with the risk of non double-digit targets with his crazy-low YPC.
- Tre Tucker, LV — Usable, similar to Atwell as long as Davante Adams is out.
- Jordan Whittington, LAR — Whittington went from fourth to first in routes and opportunities. Stash him in case that continues, but Cooper Kupp is rumored to be back in two weeks.
- Allen Lazard, NYJ — Tied with Garrett Wilson with five red-zone targets.
- Keon Coleman, BUF — Until he’s seeing a higher and more consistent target share (and routes), Coleman is a boom/bust WR5 but with plenty of upside to keep stashed on benches.
- Ja’Lynn Polk, NE — Jumped to a team-high in routes and targets. Polk’s time is coming, however 1.) Kendrick Bourne could return and 2.) Polk’s best days will be once Drake Maye takes over.
- Jerry Jeudy, CLE — At least seven targets in each game, with points ranging from 6.7-10.2.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, KC — Smith-Schuster fills a similar role to Rashee Rice, but we know he doesn’t have much of a ceiling… Watson has big-play ability, and if he was the No. 1 or 2 wideout, he’d be in the WR3/4 conversation, and Moore also has some of the ability to fill the Rice role, but he’s failed so far in the NFL. Also, don’t be surprised if the Chiefs make a move — Amari Cooper has been named, but they might go super cheap with a Darius Slayton, etc. As you can see, it’s all bench stashing for a lottery ticket, but most won’t hit… if any.
- Mike Williams, NYJ — Still behind Allen Lazard in routes, so Williams might be no more than a WR4/5, especially with Aaron Rodgers’ struggles.
- Jakobi Meyers, LV — Mostly guarantee a few points with an off-chance for double-digits.
- Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL — Low-end option for needy teams with byes.
DUMPSVILLE
(order I’d drop)
- Demarcus Robinson, LAR — Not dumping for nothing, but per Atwell and Whittington blurbs, Robinson is hard to use or even roster.
MEH, I’LL PASS
- Olamide Zaccheaus, WSH — Commanders are rotating wideouts and Jayden Daniels is finding the matchups that work — aka, not force-feeding anyone outside of Terry McLaurin, a bit.
- Parris Campbell, PHI — Eagles on bye with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith likely back in Week 6.
- Trey Palmer, TB — Like Jalen McMillan before him, third option means you should pass.
FUTURE POTENTIAL
- Jalen McMillan, TB
- Jermaine Burton, CIN
- Roman Wilson, PIT
STREAMING TIGHT ENDS
- Taysom Hill, NO
- Tucker Kraft, GB
- Zach Ertz, WSH
- Noah Fant, SEA
- Mike Gesicki, CIN
- Hunter Henry, NE
- Tyler Conklin, NYJ
- Colby Parkinson, LAR
- Brenton Strange, JAX
STREAMING DST
Week 5
- SEA vs NYG
- DEN vs LV
- LV at DEN
- NE vs MIA
- JAX vs IND
- WSH vs CLE
Week 6
- IND at TEN
- LAC at DEN
- PHI vs CLE
- LV vs PIT
- CIN at NYG
- TEN vs IND
- JAX at CHI
(Top photo of Kareem Hunt: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
