Who’s on first? The Astros answered that question on Friday by signing free agent Christian Walker. On Saturday, the Yankees agreed to a deal with Paul Goldschmidt. Later that same day, the Guardians flipped Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks before reeling in free agent Carlos Santana. And further down the radar, the Nationals acquired Nathaniel Lowe in a Sunday trade.
This shuffle during First Basemen Weekend, however, did little to clarify the future of Pete Alonso, the top option on the market.
While other potential destinations loom — Giants? Mariners? Cubs? — a sensible outcome for both parties remains a reunion between Alonso and the New York Mets. That was true two months ago and the recent batch of moves involving other first basemen only underscores the possibility.
The fit is obvious, but the terms remain tricky. When it comes to Alonso and the Mets, the sticking point could be contract length.
At the outset of the offseason, The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected Alonso to receive $140 million over five years.
Alonso’s camp could argue he deserves more than five years because of his high-end power and track record for durability.
Alonso’s home run prowess puts him in elite company. Through his age-29 season (3,607 plate appearances), Alonso has 226 homers. That’s just seven fewer long balls than Jim Thome hit through the Hall of Famer’s age-29 season (4,466 plate appearances). Since Alonso debuted in 2019, only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs (232).
His durability adds to his value. He has missed just 24 games over six seasons. Last season, he played in all 162 regular-season games, plus 13 more in the postseason.
In free agency, however, clubs are tasked with assessing a player’s worth for future years. After going 15 years for Juan Soto, the Mets, led by owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns, might prefer to keep things at five years or even go shorter than that on other players. Early Monday morning, the Mets agreed to a three-year deal worth $75 million (with deferrals) with Sean Manaea instead of doing something longer with a starting pitcher. Manaea is yet another client of Scott Boras, who has a great working relationship with Cohen. Within the industry, agents praise Stearns for his ability to collect information and read the market.
In 2024, Alonso, who turned 30 earlier this month, hit 34 home runs with a .788 OPS, both career-lows (he matched his 123 OPS-plus from 2023, however). He hit more grounders than ever (42.1 percent) and struggled more than before against sliders. He doesn’t walk, run or defend at an above-average level.
When asked how many years he’d recommend Alonso to his front office, a longtime American League scout said, “Probably will take four years but I would try to push for a higher annual average value over three years. If I feel he is a guy who puts us over the top, I easily give that fourth year.”
Would Boras be wrong if he wanted at least two or three more years for Alonso? After all, the Baltimore Orioles recently gave outfielder Tyler O’Neill, one of Boras’ clients, three years. O’Neill, 29, lacks Alonso’s production and availability. In the first base market, Walker, the next-best option behind Alonso, got three years. In 2025, Walker will play in his age-34 season.
The same AL scout added, “You can pencil (Alonso) in for .240 with 40 home runs and 90 RBIs or so for a handful more seasons.”
Those numbers would come in handy in a lineup behind Soto. Strong believers in analytics will point out it matters more who bats in front of elite players like Soto than it does who bats behind them. But Soto is coming off a year in which he hit a career-best 41 home runs with a .989 OPS batting in front of Aaron Judge.
“I’m not a huge protection guy, but maybe it helped him realize some things with swinging,” a National League scout said. “When he was with the Padres, he was up there sometimes looking like he was taking pitches. It’s good to take some borderline pitches. It’s not always good when you’re Juan f—ing-Soto.”
As one industry source put it, choosing not to add in a big way after getting Soto is like buying an expensive home and skimping out on furniture. The Mets’ optimal lineup construction probably includes keeping Francisco Lindor at leadoff, where he thrived, followed by some order of Mark Vientos, Soto, Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil and others. A strong group. But that’s predicated on them re-signing Alonso.
Over the weekend, there was no indication talks between the Mets and Alonso had picked up steam, according to people familiar with the situation. While the list of other potential suitors for Alonso is shorter than it was before the weekend, it takes only one team to decide to get more aggressive in a pursuit. Without Alonso, the Mets could look for internal solutions or find a viable alternative elsewhere even if that might mean moving Vientos from third base to first base. Despite some flaws, Alonso makes the Mets better.
“Look, defensively, he is not the best, but he’s really good at scooping the ball, saving infielders from throwing mistakes and, overall, he is better than what he was,” the same NL scout said. “The other thing about Pete Alonso is, he cares. You know that every day he is going to give you everything he has.”
Rival evaluators guessed that free agency weighed on Alonso in 2024, pointing to poor numbers against sliders and uncharacteristic numbers with runners in scoring position. But in the playoffs, Alonso found his stride, producing a .999 OPS and hitting the most important home run of his career, a go-ahead blast in the elimination game of the Wild Card Series.
“The conversation on Pete sometimes veers too much into what he doesn’t do,” another NL scout said, “but we should really give him credit for things he does do, too, like hit home runs because he does that at an elite level. And he should continue to.”
As a homegrown player with an ability to chase down offensive club records, Alonso’s value might be worth more to the Mets than other clubs. If that’s true, then how much more? And what does that mean in terms of years?
(Top photo of Pete Alonso: Daniel Shirey / Getty Images)
