One of the most important things a sportswriter can do is admit when they’re wrong. Or at least, that’s what I’ve been told. For me, personally, it never really comes up.
OK, that’s not quite true. I suppose it’s possible that I’ve been wrong once or twice, in between my normal bouts of absolutely nailing pretty much every prediction I make. And in those rare cases where it happens, I should probably try out this whole self-reflection thing I can keep hearing about.
But there’s a problem: That nagging doubt that maybe I’m not so wrong after all.
You might experience the same thing. So today, let’s take a look at a few things we all thought we knew about the 2024-25 NHL season that are trending solidly toward the “oops” category, and see if we really need to concede defeat quite yet. After all, it’s important to admit when you’re wrong … but were we really?
The Capitals’ playoff spot was up for grabs
What we thought: There was likely only one new spot available in the East, since six of last year’s playoff teams were essentially locks and the Devils would be back now that they had a goalie. That meant that the Islanders would be trying to defend their spot from a mix of win-now teams like Pittsburgh and a handful of younger teams we’ll get to in a bit.
All of that probably came as a surprise to the Capitals, who’d also made it last year and had at least theoretically improved over the summer. But it didn’t really matter to the rest of us — we needed some sort of an Eastern race, and that meant we needed the Caps to surrender their spot.
But then … The Capitals don’t just look like a playoff team; a third of the way into the season they may actually be the best team in the league. Powered by the long-awaited Dylan Strome breakout, the arrival of Connor McMichael as a legitimate offensive threat, strong goaltending from the newly acquired Logan Thompson and a Jack Adams-worthy performance behind the bench by Spencer Carbery, the Caps are beating everyone. Even an extended injury to the red-hot Alexander Ovechkin didn’t slow them down. They’ve lost back-to-back games once all season, after which they immediately ran off four straight wins.
We were so wrong: They’re also leading the league in goals differential.
But were we really? This is the part where we need to point out that most NHL seasons see a team emerge as a first-half powerhouse before fading back to the pack. Last year it was the Kings, who had the best record in the league in mid-December and had fired their coach by the end of January. Two years ago, the Jets were sitting well over .700 around this time, then barely made the playoffs before being the first team out. The 2020-21 Ducks, the 2016-17 Blue Jackets, the 2015-16 Canadiens … you get the drill.
That said, we know which warning signs to look for in a fake success story, and we don’t really see those in Washington. It’s not like this team is riding a massive PDO bender to an inflated record — they’re legitimately good. But just how good is up for debate, even as their hot start has all but taken that playoff spot off the table. Dom’s model has them at 97 percent to make the playoffs but just 2 percent to win the Cup, which is a weird split but probably matches where a lot of fans are at on this team.
So were we wrong about their playoff spot? Yep, it sure seems that way. Whether we were wrong about them being legit contenders is a tougher question, but it’s getting harder to count them out every day, and even the more stubborn pessimists are finally starting to come around.
At least one of the Red Wings, Senators or Sabres would finally break through
What we thought: I mean, it had to happen this year, right? Sure, it felt like the third or fourth year in a row we were waiting for one of these teams to make a big stride, but that just meant it was already overdue. And with the Senators getting a new goalie, the Sabres hiring an old coach, and the Red Wings … uh, staying patient and sticking to the plan … well, this had to be the year.
But then … All three teams entered the week under .500, and all three feel like they’ve spent the year dipping in and out of varying degrees of crisis.
We were so wrong: All three teams are behind the Blue Jackets and Flyers, and barely ahead of the Habs.
But were we really? While their records aren’t inspiring, all three teams are still very much in the playoff race, if only because teams like the Rangers and Bruins have had their own disappointing starts. The Senators in particular have shown some signs of life lately, and while the path back to a playoff spot won’t be easy for any of these three, one week-long win streak puts them right back in the mix. And for the record, “in the mix” is what most of us were assuming here — not even a playoff spot necessarily, just some degree of meaningful hockey. It still feels more likely than not that we get that from at least one of these teams, if only because parity is dragging the rest of the contenders back to the pack.
Connor Bedard was ready to take over the league
What we thought: After an impressive rookie season that just seemed to scratch the surface, it was time for Connor Bedard to make the same second-year leap that Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid had, which is to say right into the top tier of truly elite franchise forwards. Between free agency signings like Tyler Bertuzzi and the return of Taylor Hall, the Hawks had added enough offensive help on the wings to truly unleash Bedard on the rest of the league.
Mix in the chance to show off his skills at the best-on-best 4 Nations tournament, and the sky was the limit. The Rocket Richard? The first of many Hart Trophies? It all felt in play.
But then … We’re a third of the way through the season and Bedard has five goals. He’s on pace to barely match last year’s total of 61 points, even though that rookie season featured an extended absence due to injury. Bedard barely seemed to be a serious candidate for the Team Canada roster. It’s all been part of a miserable season in Chicago that’s already seen Hall benched, Luke Richardson fired and Bertuzzi pretty much play with everyone but Bedard for reasons nobody seems to be quite clear on.
We were so wrong: Also, he’s a defensive grinder now, apparently. The kid’s a bust.
But were we really? OK, the bust talk is clearly premature, especially when you remember that we’re still talking about a teenager. There’s plenty of room for optimism in Bedard’s long-term outlook, for many of the reasons Mark mentions here.
But that’s for the long term, and we’re talking about the idea that Bedard would have a breakout this year. That just doesn’t seem to be happening, and even if he caught fire in the second half, it’s not going to be enough to get him into any kind of awards discussion unless the team starts winning. That feels unlikely bordering on impossible these days, so yeah, I think we did get this one wrong … for now.
Sam Reinhart couldn’t do it again
What we thought: Reinhart was one of the best individual stories of the 2023-24 season, as a guy who’d been a good player for years suddenly made the leap to true stardom with a 57-goal, 94-point season. But while the numbers were impressive, it was clearly a case of a year where everything went in, the kind of percentage-fueled breakout we’ve learned not to fully trust. After all, Reinhart’s previous best was a 33-goal season, and he’d shot 14.1 percent over his career. Call it a contract year for the ages, but guys don’t magically level up in their late 20s, and at the very least we knew he wasn’t going to shoot 24.5 percent again.
But then … He’s been shooting 25 percent instead, leading the league in goals and making his $69 million extension look like one of the NHL’s best bargains.
We were so wrong: Oh, he’s also chasing the Art Ross this year. You know, just to mix things up.
But were we really? The list of players who’ve shot 24 percent or better over a full season in the cap era is basically Reinhart last year and then three guys you’d never expect who just had monster fluke seasons — Mike Ribeiro in 2007-08, Sergei Kostitsyn in 2010-11, and Andrei Kuzmenko as a rookie in 2022-23. That would be the same Kuzmenko who has one goal this year, in case you were wondering. Reinhart is clearly better than all of those guys, but no, he’s not going to shoot 25 percent all year. At some point, the puck will stop going in, if only for a week or two, and we can all overreact in the other direction.
(And for the record: None of you believed in Reinhart either. We’re all in this one together.)
The Flames were finally ready to bottom out
What we thought: While nobody in Calgary seems to want to say the word “rebuild” into a microphone, that’s clearly what was happening. Over the course of a year, Craig Conroy had traded away Elias Lindholm, Chris Tanev, Nikita Zadorov, Andrew Mangiapane and Jacob Markström, all in deals primarily based on assets for the future. While the veterans left behind all had contracts that would make them tough to move, it was clear which direction this team was headed toward, and this year would be about getting the kids some experience while building the best possible lottery odds.
Put it this way: Our Flames season preview had them pegged as a 78.9-point team, fifth-worst in the league, and the first line was “The shocking thing about Calgary’s projection is that it’s not lower.”
But then … Apparently somebody forgot to tell the Flames they were bad, because they started the year with a four-game win streak and have spent the whole season hanging around the Western playoff race in a surprisingly weak Pacific. Dustin Wolf has stepped in for Markström to provide good goaltending at a far cheaper price, while remaining veterans like MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson have them playing steady, winning hockey.
We were so wrong: They’ve already beaten the Oilers, Wild, Kings and Devils, so it’s not like they’re just feasting on the weak teams.
But were we really? I mean, this is an easy one, right? The Flames are fake .500, in the sense that they’ve lost more games than they’ve won, and their eight regulation wins put them in the same territory as the Ducks, Sabres and Habs. That season-opening win streak counts, but they’ve won just 10 of 25 since, including just two of their last eight, so it’s not even like we’re predicting some future regression — it’s already here.
So let’s just say it: The Flames are bad, they’re going to be bad for the rest of the season, and all they accomplished with that short burst of October success was making sure they’d draft seventh overall instead of top-five.
And I can say that with confidence, because I’ve never been wrong about anything else.
(Top photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
