(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Oct. 7, 2024.)
It’s been a good run over the 379 days since the Denver Broncos allowed 726 yards to the Miami Dolphins in a 70-20 defeat that any defensive coordinator would have a difficult time living down.
• Where the Vance Joseph-coordinated Broncos defense ranked in EPA per play through four games last season: last in the 32-team league, and 798th out of 798 teams since 2000 when looking only at the first four games of all seasons.
• Where the Joseph-coordinated Broncos defense ranks in EPA per play since then: fourth out of 32 teams, which is the leading reason, by far, that Denver has a winning record (11-8) over that span, including 3-2 in 2024.
The Broncos’ Sean Payton-led offense ranks 27th in EPA per play since the blowout defeat at Miami, including 30th this season. The defense is letting them survive while playing rookie quarterback Bo Nix before Nix appears ready.
Patrick Surtain II’s interception and 100-yard touchdown return off Gardner Minshew in the Broncos’ 34-18 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders produced the largest single-play EPA change in the NFL since 2019, per TruMedia. The swing was so extreme (12.5) because the Raiders had first-and-goal from the 5, a situation that almost always leads to points.
A 100 YARD PICK 6!! @PatSurtainll pic.twitter.com/Xh3CG05U9J
— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
Denver is the eighth team since 2000 to produce at least 5.0 EPA on defense in each of its first five games, per TruMedia. The current Vikings are also on that list. Denver ranks first in blitz rate this season (45 percent), followed by the Vikings (42 percent).
| Defense | Total DEF EPA |
|---|---|
|
+120.2
|
|
|
+79.6
|
|
|
+76.1
|
|
|
+71.1
|
|
|
+70.6
|
|
|
+60.2
|
|
|
+55.8
|
|
|
+48.4
|
The Broncos haven’t just feasted on bad offenses like the one they dominated Sunday. They handed Kansas City its second-worst offensive EPA game (Week 8 last year) and Buffalo (Week 10) its third-worst since the start of last season, a span of 43 combined games for those high-powered offenses led by Tier 1 quarterbacks.
Also of note: How many teams have one of their former head coaches on staff, helping the current coach succeed? It surely helps that Broncos ownership changed since Joseph was their coach from 2017 to 2018. Still, it’s unusual.
“It tells you his dismount was really good when he was fired,” a veteran coach said. “It says a lot about the person. Sean (Payton) could have scapegoated him in a heartbeat.”
(Photo of Vance Joseph, right, and Sean Payton: Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)
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