Juan Soto didn’t get a second World Series ring with the Yankees. But he’s about to become a very rich man.
The Soto sweepstakes will be the most talked about and dissected free agent storyline this winter. Soto isn’t the first free agent to lose in the World Series and cash in on a record payday. Prior to the 2019 season, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper were the two free agent prizes and Machado — who was traded midseason from the Orioles — was coming off a World Series loss with the Dodgers.
The Yankees, who lost the 2024 World Series in five games to the Dodgers, wouldn’t have helped their chances to sign Soto significantly even if they did hoist a trophy. Soto admitted as much in New York Wednesday night.
He is after records, most notably overtaking Shohei Ohtani for top average annual value, and many people in the industry expect Soto will break that record with a mega-contract that will begin during his age-26 season. It’s rare for a player of that caliber to reach free agency that soon, but it’s not unprecedented.
Harper and Machado were both 26 years old when they hit free agency. They were both seeking record-breaking deals and got them. Machado went first, signing with San Diego for 10 years, $300 million, only for Harper to top that a week later with a 13-year, $330 million pact with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Soto, who turned down $440 million from the Nationals in 2022, never got far down the line in extension talks with the San Diego Padres or the Yankees regardless of the rumors to the contrary. The goal for years has been free agency and the closer Soto got to it, the less likely he and agent Scott Boras were going to give up the chance to test the open market.
Soto has talked in platitudes all season, saying the same carefully constructed phrases about his free agency, how every team will have a chance, how he wants to move the market forward for other players and how one season in New York — even a great one — won’t necessarily give the Yankees any advantage.
Asked by reporters after Wednesday’s season-ending loss if it had sunk in that he could soon be making $500 million, Soto said: “It’s been on my mind for a while now.”
Soto’s free agency figures to make headlines for a while, too. Both Machado’s and Harper’s signings weren’t completed until spring training, and while it’s impossible to predict when Soto will sign, history suggests he won’t go early. Boras will likely spend the GM Meetings and Winter Meetings pontificating on how uniquely talented Soto is and most of it will be true.
Soto is coming off a terrific season; he posted an 8.1 FanGraphs WAR, made his third All-Star team and largely carried the Yankees offense in October, embracing the spotlight in New York and the even brighter one in the World Series. Soto, who won a ring in 2019 with the Nationals, owns a .281/.389/.538 line with a .927 career OPS in 43 playoff games. He has been compared to Ted Williams. He is perhaps one of the best hitters of this generation, better offensively than both Harper and Machado.
The Athletic’s Tim Britton predicted a deal that could reach 14 years and $560 million for Soto earlier this year, or a 12-year deal at $45 million a season totaling $540 million. (Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers has enough deferrals that his AAV is roughly $46 million.) Soto has done nothing but increase his stock since then.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Juan Soto |
2025
|
26-
|
9.1
|
18.8
|
32.4
|
 Shohei Ohtani |
2024
|
29-38
|
8.9
|
26.4
|
30.9
|
Soto — who is from the Dominican Republic — will downplay the importance of staying on the East Coast, though he has made it clear he didn’t enjoy being farther from his family playing with San Diego. Boras will undoubtedly draw out the bidding process, seeking to maximize his client’s value. You will hear mystery teams, about interest from markets that don’t typically spend. In reality, if Soto’s camp is seeking records, there are only a few teams that will be willing to swim in those waters. While a report surfaced about the Dodgers’ interest early this week, it would be seen as an upset in the industry if Soto doesn’t go to one of the New York teams, which both have deep pockets and serious interest. The Dodgers are unafraid to spend but have historically signed their stars to fairly team-friendly deals. (Ohtani is a prime example.)
Soto, while an otherworldly hitter, is not without his flaws, and — like what happened in Harper’s and Machado’s free agencies — teams won’t be shy to pick him apart. There will be reports about clubs being wary of committing record money or length to a player with Soto’s defensive issues, who could be earmarked to be a full-time designated hitter halfway through his next contract, or about how much adding a $500 million or $600 million player would impact the next decade of payroll and finances. How far will teams go? That was the big question six years ago, when both Harper and Machado got $300 million deals, each seemingly using the other to wait out the market. Those deals look small now.
Soto has no equal on the free agent market and could command nearly double that. Machado, who could have opted out of his deal after five years, signed an 11-year, $350 million extension with San Diego in February 2023. Harper — who is also represented by Boras — is a bargain.
It’s unknown whether Soto, like Harper, would prefer to stay in one place for the rest of his career or sign a deal with opt-outs for a chance to push his career earnings higher. It’s also unknown how long of a deal his camp is seeking.
Soto, Boras’ prized client this winter, didn’t say he would instruct Boras to give the Yankees a chance to match any offers. It’s not that Soto didn’t enjoy his time in pinstripes. He did. But if there’s one thing he has made crystal clear over the past two seasons, it’s that personal feelings won’t play a role. This is a business transaction, albeit a big, flashy one, and Boras — who struck out with several of his top clients last winter — will approach it that way. The highest bidder will win.
And like with Machado and Harper, we may be waiting a while for the bidding to end.
(Photo: Mike Stobe / Getty Images)
