In yet another unpredictable NASCAR season, the champion of our fifth annual preseason questions contest proved to be deserving of the crown.
Of the 922 people who entered their picks in January and February before the 2024 Cup Series season began, three of them got four of five answers correct.
The winner, Ryan H., did so in a particularly astounding manner: He was among only 1.6 percent of people who accurately predicted Tyler Reddick would win the regular-season championship, then chose William Byron as his lock to make the title race at Phoenix.
Ryan H. had to fend off two other players — Matt Z. and Mia Marsden — but neither of them had Reddick as regular-season champ while collecting their four correct answers.
The battle came down to a tiebreaker: Shane van Gisbergen’s average finish in his 12 Cup races this season. Ryan (17.o) was closest to the correct answer of 22.8, so he joins our Hall of Champions.
This wasn’t an easy year; personally, I only got two of five questions correct (but I did pick Reddick to make the championship race). Let’s look back and see how it all unfolded.
1. Who will win Rookie of the Year?
Josh Berry, paired with crew chief Rodney Childers and replacing Kevin Harvick in the No. 4 car, was chosen by a large majority of players (62.1 percent) to win Rookie of the Year. That left Carson Hocevar (19.8 percent) and Zane Smith (18.1 percent) to split the remaining vote.
But ultimately, Berry wasn’t the winning pick — and it wasn’t even close. Hocevar finished 21st in the point standings with six top-10 finishes and an 18.1 average finish — tied with Kyle Busch and, as Hocevar observed, just one spot in average position behind champion Joey Logano.
Berry, meanwhile, was 27th in points and Smith was 30th (while learning he would be fired from his ride at the end of the season).
2. Which manufacturer wins the most races?
Chevrolet was the heavy favorite (73.3 percent), and that proved to be the reality. Chevy drivers combined to win 15 Cup Series races, beating Ford (12) and Toyota (nine).
But the shocker was how close Ford came to erasing the deficit. After reaching the one-third mark of the season, Ford was winless with its new car and seemed to be justifying why only 9.3 percent of players chose the manufacturer to win the most races. At the time, Chevy had seven wins and Toyota (17.4 percent of picks) had five.
Ford then proceeded to win half of the remaining events (12 of 24) while Toyota in particular fell off a cliff. Powerhouse team Joe Gibbs Racing did not win at all in the final 18 races, with 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick providing the only two Toyota victories since June.
3. Who will win the regular-season championship?
This one was Upset City, according to the bulk of preseason picks. As mentioned earlier, Reddick was only chosen by 1.6 percent of players and was tied for the 11th-most-picked driver in this category.
Of course, Kyle Larson would have won the regular-season championship had the Indianapolis 500 not been rain-delayed and caused him to miss the Coca-Cola 600; he only lost the title by one point and he was the second-most-picked driver (19.2 percent).
Denny Hamlin (30.9 percent) was actually the top pick, followed by Larson, William Byron (15.8 percent), Chase Elliott (8.9 percent) and Christopher Bell (7 percent). And to be fair, those five drivers would have been the top five in overall points scored this season had Hamlin not received a fluke engine penalty for something out of his control. So our players were pretty accurate when considering the season as a whole.
But Reddick was overlooked as a threat to have an excellent first 26 races, which ultimately played a large role in deciding our championship. Only 15 out of the 922 entries chose him; that probably won’t happen again next year.
4. Who is a Championship 4 lock?*
This one has an asterisk because it was a tricky question that came with a qualifier: Players were not allowed to choose the same driver they picked for the regular-season champion. For example: If someone picked Reddick to win the regular season, they couldn’t then turn around and choose Reddick again for this category.
But get this: Of the five most-chosen drivers for this question — Larson (33.5 percent), Byron (17.1 percent), Hamlin (13.3 percent), Bell (7.8 percent) and Elliott (6.7 percent) — only one made the Championship 4.
Think about that for a moment. These are hardcore NASCAR fans who know the sport well, and yet four of the top five locks didn’t even make the championship race. Wild.
Anyway, 30.7 percent of entries still managed to get a Championship 4 lock correct — though Byron accounted for the bulk of those. Interestingly, only 4.2 percent thought Blaney was worth choosing as a lock to return to the title race after he won the 2023 championship.
5. How many different Cup Series race winners will there be?
In full disclosure, this question was intended to break up the pack. It’s really challenging to come up with the exact number of different winners in a series where so many things could go a slightly different way and change the outcome completely.
If Austin Dillon doesn’t go bowling at Richmond, that’s one less winner. If Kyle Busch finishes off the race at Kansas, that’s one more. Martin Truex Jr. and Bubba Wallace didn’t win this season, but Harrison Burton and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. did.
Anyway, there were ultimately 18 different winners — one short of tying NASCAR’s all-time record and a number chosen correctly by only 1.5 percent of players.
Tiebreaker: SVG’s average Cup finish
Last year, we forgot to add a tiebreaker question (oops!) and ended up with a four-way championship tie. So after learning from our mistake, there was a tiebreaker question for this season.
At the start of the year, we were told van Gisbergen would run a “minimum” of seven Cup races; he ended up doing 12 in preparation for his promotion to NASCAR’s top level next season (he’ll drive a new No. 88 car for Trackhouse Racing).
His average finish overall: 22.8.
Ultimately, van Gisbergen ended up with two top-10 finishes on road courses (Watkins Glen, where he nearly won, and the Roval). But arguably his most impressive result was a lead-lap finish in the Martinsville playoff race, in which he finished 12th.
NASCAR preseason questions champions
2020: Aly Osman
2021: Jeff Gluck
2022: Craig Swiecki
2023: Brad Beasley, Will Purbaugh, Lisa Chanana and Gabe Horwitz
2024: Ryan H.
(Top photo of Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick and William Byron, this year’s Championship 4: James Gilbert / Getty Images)
