Since Daryl Katz took over the Edmonton Oilers, the organization has experienced an exceptional number of changes in the general manager and head coach positions.
In the 15-plus years since Katz’s 2008 purchase, the Oilers have deployed seven general managers and 11 head coaches. That’s more than one major change per season since he took over.
When management changes, or there’s a coaching shuffle, personnel are also impacted.
In the summer of 2024, Jeff Jackson was the general manager through free agency. Stan Bowman came in late summer to take over the role. Coach Kris Knoblauch was named to the role early in 2023-24, so this fall’s training camp was his first with the Oilers.
That’s a lot of recent change, and the summer transaction pace was furious compared to most teams who make the Stanley Cup Final.
How are the four key new players doing so far? I’ll use the reasonable expectations predictions, where applicable when looking at progress in 2024-25.
Jeff Skinner
Free-agent scoring winger Jeff Skinner was expected to perform well in a feature role this season. My reasonable expectations suggested 37 goals and 0.92 points per game in 2024-25.
Skinner has scored three goals and six points in 18 games this season (0.33 points per game) and is on pace for fewer than 15 goals. Even more concerning, Knoblauch is fading Skinner’s playing time in a big way. Skinner has been on the fourth line recently, despite real struggles from all of the team’s left wingers:
| Player | TOI | Pts-60 | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
13:26
|
0.74
|
47
|
 Jeff Skinner |
12:36
|
1.59
|
33
|
 Vasily Podkolzin |
11:24
|
0.88
|
36
|
 Mattias Janmark |
11:24
|
2.05
|
50
|
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The star of this depth chart so far this season is Mattias Janmark. Despite playing a depth role, he’s scoring well and is the only winger on the left side to deliver a 50 percent goal share.
The curious part of this chart is Knoblauch’s deployment of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He’s a trusted veteran and has earned the first chance on the No. 1 line.
The results aren’t there. The team has options, and based on results Skinner should be considered more often for the No.1 left wing role.
Nugent-Hopkins has played 105 minutes on the top line with Connor McDavid, and Skinner just 37 minutes with the captain. This is despite an expected goal share at five-on-five (53 percent) that’s slightly better than that of Nugent-Hopkins (51 percent).
It’s hard to score from the fourth line, but Skinner’s offence isn’t forcing a move up the depth chart, either.
The Oilers, a team that has routinely abandoned structure over the last decade, have shown some signs of sustain when following the Knoblauch plan.
Based on his handling of the player through 18 games, Knoblauch regards Skinner is an outlier in a two-way role. At least for now.
Viktor Arvidsson
| Player | TOI | Pts-60 | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
 Zach Hyman |
15:14
|
1.09
|
53
|
 Viktor Arvidsson |
13:36
|
1.1
|
53
|
 Connor Brown |
12:08
|
1.37
|
55
|
 Corey Perry |
10:08
|
0.99
|
50
|
The expectations for Viktor Arvidsson were lower than Skinner’s projections due to injury worries. The expected results (18 goals, 44 points, 0.73 points per game) are still aggressive compared to the actual production (2-3-5 in 16 games, 0.31 points per game) as the entire team has been in an offensive slump this season.
The right wingers are scoring more at five-on-five (evidence above) and are on the good side of the ledger in goal share at five-on-five.
If struggles continue, we could see one of Arvidsson or Zach Hyman move to the other wing in an attempt to kickstart results.
Arvidsson’s first Edmonton season has been disappointing so far, but his style is a better fit than Skinner’s for this edition of the Oilers.
Vasily Podkolzin
Vasily Podkolzin has been playing in some bad luck while also showing real promise as a depth left winger.
His five-on-five goal share (36 percent) trails expected goals (64 percent); regression should be expected.
On the other hand, he’s getting fantastic offensive looks and has little to show for it. Podkolzin is even getting playing time with Leon Draisaitl as his centre, with results (1.01 points per 60 in 118 minutes) that suggest he’s destined for third- and fourth-line work.
Podkolzin’s season so far should be viewed as a success despite the lack of scoring and outscoring. If he continues to play this well, results should improve.
His playing ahead of Skinner (second-line work for Podkolzin has been the norm) is a surprise.
Ty Emberson
The Oilers’ acquisition of Ty Emberson came late and fans are still settling in on the player.
The coaching staff ran him out with Darnell Nurse at the beginning of the year, with poor results. Part of the issue surrounded Nurse’s slow start due to injury, but quality of competition also contributed to poor numbers.
Once Emberson checked down to the third pairing (and partner Brett Kulak) results improved. Through his first 16 games this season, Emberson is 5-10 goals at five-on-five with Kulak, but the duo owns a 57 percent expected goal share and play a calm game together.
Emberson is the No. 6 defenceman currently, so his impact is less than the forwards. Still, he’s improving and may handle more of the load as the season progresses.
He appears to be establishing himself as a member of the NHL team, but there doesn’t appear to be much opportunity to move up the depth chart this season.
Offensive funk
All four men have had an uneven and (at least) slightly disappointing start to the season.
However, if we look at the broader canvas over the entire season, Knoblauch’s overall goals come into view. If we compare this year’s first 18 games to last season’s initial 18, it’s clear why Skinner is on the fourth line and the team is not making a move to increase goal scoring:
| Category | 2023-24 (first 18) | 2024-25 (first 18) |
|---|---|---|
|
Overall Goal Pct
|
42
|
47
|
|
Overall GF-60
|
2.93
|
2.75
|
|
Overall GA-60
|
3.97
|
3.13
|
|
Five-on-Five Goal Pct
|
41
|
49
|
|
Five-on-Five GF-60
|
2.15
|
2.18
|
|
Five-on-Five GA-60
|
3.15
|
2.32
|
|
PP GF-60
|
9.27
|
5.86
|
|
PK GA-60
|
9.81
|
13.44
|
The Oilers have cleaned up the goals-against at five-on-five, and overall. That has come at a price, as the offence is flat through 18 games at five-on-five and in the ditch on the power play.
Edmonton’s save percentage a year ago (.890 at five-on-five, .863 overall) was poor; It’s better (.906 at five-on-five, .875 overall) this year despite a dreadful penalty kill.
Despite many fans calling for change in net, the five-on-five totals are significantly better this year through 18 games.
Why?
At five-on-five last season, the team’s expected-goal share (56 percent), SA-60 (28.6) and HDSC-against-60 (10.5) reflected poor performance.
This season at five-on-five, the expected-goal share (57 percent), SA-60 (24.8) and HDSC-against-60 (8.5) are all trending in a good way.
Knoblauch fading one of Jackson’s top free-agent signings is curious on the surface, but a deeper look shows the team is working hard to avoid opposition shots and chances.
What’s next?
There’s a sense that the Oilers’ low offensive totals through 18 games will ease and the team will cash more often.
The Saturday game against the Toronto Maple Leafs was textbook for Knoblauch’s plan through 50 minutes before derailing in the final 10.
For the Oilers to maintain their recent record (9-4-2 in the last 15) the offensive output will need to improve.
Using all situations in those 15 games, Edmonton scored 47 goals and allowed 42 (53 percent).
The encouraging news for Knoblauch is the five-on-five outscoring in those games: 31-26, 54 percent. That includes a five-on-five GA-60 of 2.08, good for No. 8 in the NHL since mid-October.
Knoblauch will need Skinner before the season is done, but it appears the veteran winger will need to improve his outscoring ability in order to play a feature role.
How much of the gap for Skinner is luck? The five-on-five goal share (33 percent) and expected goal share (53 percent) are miles apart. Regression favours the player in this instance, but fourth-line minutes are less than ideal for his player type.
(Photo of Viktor Arvidsson: Steve Roberts / Imagn Images)
