When the Chicago Bears lost 19-3 to Drake Maye and the New England Patriots on Nov. 10, the excitement of Caleb Williams’ rookie season deflated.
The offense was broken. The team seemed destined for major changes. So much for the “best situation ever for a No. 1 pick.”
The switch at offensive coordinator from Shane Waldron to Thomas Brown made a big difference … for three games. Williams looked confident and was making plays that were expected from a player with his pre-draft hype.
Sunday’s loss to the 49ers was the kind that can be detrimental for a rookie. Williams put up nice numbers in the second half, but he was sacked seven times.
When the Bears fired coach Matt Eberflus, it created the worst-case scenario for Williams as far as structural consistency goes. Assuming Brown does not get the permanent job or doesn’t stick as the play caller, Williams will have three head coaches and three play callers in his first 18 NFL games. He’d be the third Bears first-round quarterback to have to go through a head-coaching change heading into Year 2 in less than a decade.
The foundational issues that have plagued Halas Hall and the quarterbacks who have come through are back for the most decorated one.
The comparison to Maye and a downtrodden Patriots team that Sunday afternoon last month was stark. Jayden Daniels hasn’t been as dynamic as he was the first two months of the season, but he is still on a path to Rookie of the Year and his Commanders could make the playoffs. Bo Nix’s Broncos are rolling, and he’s thriving under coach Sean Payton.
Who has the best situation now? Which quarterback is best situated for the long term? How do the Bears’ vibes compare to what’s going on in the other cities with rookie QBs?
The Bears used some luck and opportunity to create a collection of skill players that rookie quarterbacks dream of.
They traded for wide receiver Keenan Allen. They signed running back D’Andre Swift and tight end Gerald Everett. They drafted wide receiver Rome Odunze. They brought back a defense with a couple of Pro Bowlers. They put an abundance of resources into their offensive coordinator search to find the right play caller to pair with Williams.
While questions remained about Eberflus and a coaching staff that didn’t have a ton of experience working with young quarterbacks, the talent around Williams was undeniable.
“It’s not just about acquiring the best talent, it’s about acquiring the right talent. I think that’s what you see in this building,” general manager Ryan Poles said at the end of the preseason. “It’s special. The group of guys, it’s really special.”
That culture was tested when the Bears lost on a Hail Mary in Washington, and the response was ugly. The collection of talent wasn’t being showcased. The play caller turned out to be the wrong choice, as Waldron was fired.
The abysmal performance in Arizona coming off the Hail Mary was put to shame when the Bears lost 38-13 to the 49ers. The talent, and culture, isn’t what the Bears thought.
After that loss to New England, I reached out to a few scouts on opposing teams to ask how they’d rank the four teams with rookie starting quarterbacks in order of who is best set up for the future.
Recency bias had to be taken into account. The Bears were a mess, and Williams had played poorly in back-to-back games. But the state of the Bears then doesn’t seem too different than right now — it seems bleak, with Williams shouldering any hope that a quick turnaround is possible. Two of the personnel evaluators put the Bears third, one ranked them fourth.
I also touched base with my colleagues who cover the league from a national perspective.
Mike Sando, who does the annual “QB Tiers” story, wanted to be careful not to overreact to one or two games. He doesn’t re-poll 50 coaches and execs after each game. It’s an annual exercise, and Sando had Williams first ahead of Daniels, Nix and Maye in his preseason rankings.
“Washington and Denver might provide their quarterbacks with better situations, which could affect the long-term results,” Sando said. “Let’s see who is coaching Williams next season.”
Mike Jones was with me in Houston when the Texans beat the Bears in Week 2, and he was concerned then about the setup for Williams. He ranked the teams Commanders, Broncos, Bears and then Patriots.
As someone who covered the Washington teams that flourished in a Shanahan system, Jones was confused as to what the Bears were running, considering how many connections to Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan were in the building.
“The tried and true philosophies have been missing,” Jones said. “Maybe Brown and (run game coordinator) Chris Morgan can get this operation on track as it was intended to be. If they find a better offensive mind and overall leader, this roster should be competitive.”
Mike Silver had the same rankings — Washington, Denver, Chicago and New England. He focused on ownership in his evaluation.
“Both Daniels and Bo Nix can benefit from new, ultra-rich, driven-to-succeed ownership groups that will (hopefully) leave the bulk of the football decisions to the football people,” he said. “Drake Maye doesn’t look quite as developed, but the Krafts have a strong track record.”
The same can’t be said for ownership in Chicago, and the head coaches, play callers and quarterbacks who have gone through the revolving door at Halas Hall since George McCaskey took over as chairman in 2011.
“That’s what sets the Bears apart, and not in a good way,” Silver said. “Though Caleb Williams is one of the two most promising rookies (along with Daniels), he’s been sucked down by the inertia of a flailing franchise with an ownership group that’s stuck in the past. That the Bears haven’t had a true franchise quarterback since … Sid Luckman? … isn’t totally coincidental. It starts at the top. The right coach and GM could build a winner around Williams; whether it can happen with the McCaskeys in charge seems highly dubious.”
What’s it like in the cities where the rookie quarterbacks are excelling, and where fans are more hopeful about the future and not making head-coach candidate lists?
“Taking the long view, this current Commanders slide doesn’t alter the Jayden Daniels experience,” Commanders writer Ben Standig said. “Forget about the on-field sorcery. Daniels’ greatest trick has been making Washington fans’ trepidation about believing in their favorite team (mostly) disappear.”
Daniels and the Commanders certainly seem well situated for the long haul with new ownership and success under GM Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn. They have the draft picks and salary-cap space to keep building, too.
The Broncos got off to a shaky start but are on a path to the playoffs.
“There is clear synergy between Nix and Sean Payton, who was willing to eat $85 million in dead money in order to cut ties with Russell Wilson and handpick his own quarterback,” Broncos writer Nick Kosmider said. “Wilson’s performance this season in Pittsburgh is proof he wasn’t solely to blame for Denver’s shortcomings last season, but the bottom line is Nix presents long-term hope at the position that hasn’t existed very often since Payton Manning walked into the orange sunset almost a decade ago.”
And then there are the Patriots, who among my colleagues and league sources, would be the Bears’ competition for the least amount of long-term confidence. Jerod Mayo and company seem to have a long way to go to build around Maye, but the win in Chicago was impactful.
“After some bleak early weeks with Jacoby Brissett running the show, Maye has brought optimism both with the way he’s played and what his presence represents,” Patriots writer Chad Graff said. “There are still fair questions that exist about basically every other facet of the Patriots — Is Jerod Mayo a good coach? Is the front office capable of adding talent to a bad roster? Is the offensive coordinator worthwhile? — but Maye seems like the guy, and because of that the vibes are pretty good in New England even with a bad record.”
Rookie success doesn’t mean that Daniels and Nix are destined to lead perennial playoff contenders. But their fan bases and franchises have to feel a lot better about what’s ahead. There isn’t nearly the uncertainty that Chicago faces.
When Mitch Trubisky had promising moments in 2018 under Matt Nagy, or when Justin Fields had his midseason surge under Luke Getsy, one best-case-scenario comparison was made — the 2017 Rams.
Jared Goff went 0-7 as a rookie as the Rams fired Jeff Fisher during that 2016 season. Enter Sean McVay in ’17 and Goff threw 28 touchdowns to only seven picks, good for a 100.5 passer rating as the Rams went to the playoffs.
Now, Goff’s career is a bit of an outlier, but unlike Trubisky and Fields, he continued to play well under McVay past his rookie season. The Rams went to the Super Bowl the next year.
Justin Herbert was undaunted by a coaching change after his rookie season from Anthony Lynn to Brandon Staley (and play caller Joe Lombardi). He threw 38 touchdown passes and went to the Pro Bowl in Year 2.
Jalen Hurts went 1-3 as a rookie with Doug Pederson, completing only 52 percent of his passes. Pederson was fired, Nick Sirianni was hired, and Hurts’ accuracy improved and in their second year together, they went to the Super Bowl.
With the right head coach and play caller, improvements on the line and maybe a Halas Hall makeover, Williams could be the type of quarterback who won’t let this wayward rookie season affect his career. But the idea that he was walking into a great situation turned out to be a fallacy.
Quarterbacks are often compared to their contemporaries from their draft class. Individually and statistically, Williams’ rookie season will stack up fine with Daniels, Nix and Maye.
Organizationally, he’s trailing them — and J.J. McCarthy as well. It’s another reminder of how much is riding on the next head coach.
(Top photo: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
