How high should Michigan basketball expectations be in Dusty May's first season?

7 November 2024Last Update :
How high should Michigan basketball expectations be in Dusty May's first season?

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — It was quiet at first, but as the points piled up in Dusty May’s Michigan debut, the weird noise in the background became impossible to ignore.

That was the sound of fun returning to the Crisler Center. You could hear it when players danced to Run-DMC during a timeout or when Will Tschetter threw down a tomahawk dunk. You could feel it from the crowd when 7-footer Danny Wolf altered a shot and dribbled the length of the floor for a left-handed layup. It was just one game against Cleveland State, but for a program that lost 15 of its final 16 games last season, Monday’s 101-53 rout was a welcome departure from the pall that hung over the Crisler Center last season.

“We told them before the game, this place will probably be half full tonight,” May said. “By the next month, because of the way we play and the way we interact with each other and the way we represent Michigan, we want it to be full. We’ll give them a month.”

Michigan’s first game did nothing to dampen expectations for a turnaround in May’s first season. The Wolverines were No. 19 in The Athletic’s preseason Top 25 and are projected to contend in what should be a wide-open Big Ten. May, the coach who took Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2023, overhauled Michigan’s roster with six transfers and promised to bring an up-tempo style that would be pleasing to the eyes.

So far, so good. Michigan shot 68.4 percent against Cleveland State, the second-highest rate in program history, and went 10-for-18 from 3-point range. The Wolverines won’t replicate that every night, but it wasn’t a total fluke, either.

“I think it goes back to the types of shots that (May) wants to take,” Wolf said after the Cleveland State game. “We really try to get the best shots possible. Six guys were in double figures tonight. I don’t know how many teams in the country have six guys in double figures.”

The next 10 days will provide a realistic gauge of Michigan’s progress, as the Wolverines play Wake Forest in Greensboro, N.C., on Sunday and host TCU on Nov. 15. May stated from the outset that his goal was to win in Year 1, and that expectation hasn’t changed.

“I’m going to double down on that,” May said. “Winning’s important, but it’s also a byproduct. It’s more, ‘Hey, let’s have a great work day today — mind, body and spirit — and let’s have a great work day tomorrow.’ When the Big Ten tournament is here in March and we’re playing our rivals in February, we’ll be ready to play.”

The rotation

May went into the season with a nine-man rotation in mind, and the Wolverines have stuck pretty closely to that through two exhibitions and the regular-season opener.

When Rubin Jones is healthy, the Wolverines could have five transfers in the starting lineup: Tre Donaldson (Auburn) at point guard, Jones (North Texas) and Roddy Gayle Jr. (Ohio State) on the wing and Wolf (Yale) and Vladislav Goldin (FAU) in the frontcourt. With Jones out of the lineup, Nimari Burnett started against Cleveland State, and Tschetter scored 15 points in 18 minutes off the bench. Michigan can bring in Alabama transfer Sam Walters when it wants another shooter on the floor, and freshman guard L.J. Cason has been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season.

Balance appears to be Michigan’s calling card, as five or more players have scored in double figures each time the Wolverines have taken the floor.

“I don’t think anyone was hunting numbers,” May said Monday. “They were simply trying to take what the game gave them.”

With Jones hampered by injuries, Michigan has been able to take a longer look at freshman guard Phat Phat Brooks, who played 12 minutes against Cleveland State. May said he expects Jones back in the lineup soon, which would give Michigan another experienced ballhandler in the backcourt.

“Rubin’s been bit with some random injury-bug issues,” May said. “Our response to all this is that this good is for us. This will keep us fresher longer. This will allow us to get Phat Phat more minutes when maybe Rubin would have had those minutes.”

3 big questions

Does Michigan have an alpha dog?

The answer might depend on the night, as Michigan has several players capable of being a go-to scorer. Wolf’s ability to score in different ways — off the catch, off the dribble, in the post or on the perimeter — makes him a candidate for that role.

“He’s still getting comfortable in the new system, the new environment,” May said after Wolf went 8-for-10 and scored 19 points against Cleveland State. “He’s just scratching the surface. He can shoot the 3. He handles it like a guard and passes better than most guards.”

Gayle can also fill up the stat sheet, and Cason’s poise as a freshman has stood out.

“He’s a special dude,” May said. “As a freshman, you never know right away, so I don’t want to say we saw this coming. He’s been sustaining this type of success throughout practice, from the summer to the fall.”

Can the two-big lineup flourish?

Goldin had a quiet debut, scoring two points and grabbing two rebounds in 21 minutes. That’s likely an anomaly for a player who averaged 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds last season at FAU, but it shows that Michigan still has some kinks to work out. Taking care of the ball was an issue when Wolf and Goldin were on the floor together, as the two 7-footers combined for nine turnovers against Cleveland State.

“There were a couple times when the ball found (Goldin) and he was really excited,” May said. “After tonight, he’ll be more acclimated to all this.”

Will turnovers be a lingering problem?

Turnovers have May’s attention after Michigan committed 14 against Oakland, 15 against Toledo and 16 against Cleveland State.

“Some of it’s learning to play with each other,” he said. “Some of it is carelessness. That’s probably the one thing we have to clean up.”

Donaldson will be Michigan’s primary point guard, but the Wolverines don’t want to rely on one player to initiate the offense. May wants ballhandlers at multiple positions with the freedom to grab a rebound and go. Getting Jones back on the floor should help, as May described him as someone who makes the “invisible plays” that help a team win.

Schedule analysis

By mid-December, the Wolverines should have a good feel for where they stand. They play Virginia Tech in the Fort Myers Tip-Off, which also features Xavier and South Carolina. Next they have Big Ten games against Wisconsin and Iowa, followed Arkansas at the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden and Oklahoma in the Jumpman Classic in Charlotte, N.C.

The loaded schedule reflects a combination of games May inherited and ones Michigan scheduled for the purpose of testing the team.

“We felt like the teams that scheduled aggressively early, they improved,” May said. “They were challenged, they were exposed, and their warts were out in the open. They stayed the course, and they improved because of all that.”

Michigan opens January with its only West Coast trip of the season, a two-game swing to USC and UCLA. The Wolverines play Purdue home and away, travel to Indiana on Feb. 8 and play only one game against Ohio State, on Feb. 16 in Columbus. Michigan closes the Big Ten season by playing Michigan State twice in a little more than two weeks: Feb. 21 in East Lansing and March 9 in East Lansing.

Prediction

The Big Ten looks wide open this year, with no teams in KenPom’s top 10 and 10 teams ranked between No. 12 and No. 40. Michigan is going to play a lot of toss-up games, which probably means a lot of games going down to the wire. Without a go-to scorer, the Wolverines could have a different player taking the big shot every night, which should make for exciting finishes and equal potential for heartbreak and celebration. That sounds a lot more fun than last season.

Projected regular-season record: 21-10, 12-8 Big Ten

(Photo of Tre Donaldson: Aaron J. Thornton / Getty Images)