The Edmonton Oilers enter the final week of preseason games with a clear plan that is being hampered by injury recovery, recent performance and lack of experience in key areas.
The preseason is a dangerous place for an NHL team. Sweeping decisions are made using the smallest possible samples. For that reason (and others), NHL coaches prefer established veterans in key roles.
For Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch, the 2024-25 defence will have one inexperienced defenceman in the top four to start the season.
All indications have Ty Emberson playing on the second pair with veteran Darnell Nurse. The problem? They have yet to play an NHL shift together.
No matter how this training camp played out, uncertainty on opening night was likely.
As it turns out, injuries to several Edmonton defencemen over the first portion of camp means several oft-mentioned tandems haven’t played together at all. Here are the projected opening-night pairings and the number of minutes played as partners so far in preseason:
| Tandem | Minutes | X-Goal Share |
|---|---|---|
|
Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard
|
20
|
78.4 pct
|
|
Darnell Nurse-Ty Emberson
|
0
|
|
|
Brett Kulak-Josh Brown
|
0
|
|
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Knoblauch has an elite top pairing he can count on, but the second and third duo have spent zero time together due to injury and a plethora of auditions.
That should correct itself in the days to come, but it’s getting late in a quick hurry.
Nurse has been skating since the start of camp and is taking part in drills, and Oilers fans should be heartened by the organization’s use of this time to heal Nurse as fully as possible.
Much is riding on the veteran having a successful 2024-25.
Meanwhile, Emberson, a late offseason pickup who has impressed with his defensive acumen, has found success with his new team.
Through two games and 36 minutes of five-on-five playing time, Emberson is the owner of a 66 percent expected goal share. His most common partner so far is PTO signing Travis Dermott. The two men delivered a 73 percent expected goal share in their game together.
Emberson’s partner one year ago was Mario Ferraro, who has a reasonable facsimile of Nurse’s range of skills. According to Puck IQ, the duo faced elite competition over 111 minutes (experts recommend 200 minutes before trusting results). The Dangerous Fenwick percentage (49 percent) and Dangerous Fenwick percentage relative to teammates (plus-13 percent) are quality.
Nurse with Emberson, based on the Puck IQ math from Ferraro-Emberson a year ago, is a worthwhile experiment. It would behoove the Oilers to get this duo on the ice together in the coming week.
Deployment of Nurse-Emberson
In August, I looked at the best style partners for Nurse. The conclusion? Nurse and Evan Bouchard are a strong pairing.
Since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, Nurse-Bouchard played 222 minutes together five-on-five and produced a 61 percent goal share against all quality of competition.
However, Nurse with Bouchard is not as effective at five-on-five compared to Mattias Ekholm and Bouchard over these seasons (also 61 percent expected goals but a mammoth 66 percent actual goal share).
What about Nurse and Bouchard without Connor McDavid at five-on-five? In 132 minutes over the last two seasons, the duo had a 50 percent goal share and a 58 percent expected goal share.
How does that compare to Ekholm and Bouchard without the captain? In 601 minutes five-on-five over the last two regular seasons, they helped create 63 percent of the goals and a 57 percent expected goal share.
Ekholm-Bouchard is the top pairing, and is strong enough to run away from the McDavid line. Knoblauch will have to decide deployment, but McDavid with Nurse and Emberson may have enough value for the coaching staff to run them as a five-man unit during even-strength situations.
Alternatives (internal)
Troy Stecher has been unable to play much this preseason, but he looked good doing it. He played one game previous to Saturday, a total of 13:16 five-on-five, and came in at 50 percent expected goals. Stecher has a mountain (494 NHL games) of experience compared to Emberson (30 NHL games) and is more of a pure puck mover. There is evidence that player style (passing defenceman) is a better fit for Nurse.
In 48 minutes together, Nurse and Stecher were 3-0 goals with a 59 percent expected goal share.
Josh Brown is a shutdown type who is likely to play third pairing, but in two games (32:15 total ice time) he owns an 0-2 goal result but a 51 percent expected goal share. Small sample, and Brown is under some heat for his performance in the Calgary road game on Sept. 23. In that game, he faced a large group of bona fide NHL skill forwards while partnered with Cam Dineen.
It’s unlikely Brown sees NHL time with Nurse on the second pairing, but it’s an option not yet chosen by Knoblauch. With the number of preseason games dwindling, it might become a reality if Nurse-Emberson stumbles.
The last line of defence for Knoblauch in his search for a second pairing may involve veteran Brett Kulak. He can play either side, but prefers his strong (left) side. However, if the club arrives at opening night without a good feeling about Nurse-Emberson, we could see Nurse-Kulak rolled out one more time.
Over the past three seasons, Nurse-Kulak have played 109 minutes together with solid results (10-6 goals, 50 percent expected goal share).
Based on Knoblauch’s verbal, it’s full speed ahead for Nurse-Emberson.
The internal options, in order of possible success, appear to be Stecher, Kulak and Brown.
External alternatives
It’s possible the Oilers use the waiver wire to shore up the right side of the defence, but external auditions will be difficult due to the lack of showcase time for the incoming player.
The Oilers can make a trade, the Dmitri Samorukov deal (for Klim Kostin) took place in early October 2022 and worked out well for Edmonton.
Sam Malinski of the Colorado Avalanche is a player who could be available and fits the description of player need for the organization.
Earlier this month I wrote, “In a way, he’s the opposite of Emberson, who is a solid shutdown player while Malinski will make a living with the puck on his stick” and those words still apply.
Bottom line
The questions before training camp remain unanswered, mostly due to injuries involving key components.
It isn’t Knoblauch’s fault but it is his problem.
A solution has not yet presented itself.
We wait.
(Photo of Ty Emberson: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)
