Last week, as we tried to get fans thinking about Milwaukee Bucks basketball again, we picked a few questions from the mailbag and started talking about minutes management for the Bucks’ best players, potential small-ball lineups and how one of the Bucks’ bench players could potentially have a bounce-back season.
Let’s keep it rolling with some more mailbag questions!
As always, questions have been edited for length and clarity.
Could you speak on the new additions to the Bucks roster and if they are better fits for playoff basketball compared to the three they replaced? We saw Malik Beasley and Jae Crowder get significant minutes cut in playoffs because of lack of defense and shot-making, and Pat Bev’s lack of floor spacing was a hindrance at times against the Pacers. Can the three new additions (Gary Trent Jr., Delon Wright and Taurean Prince) bolster the Bucks playoff rotation, improve on some of the above inefficiencies and give the team enough depth for a deep playoff run? — Owen B.
While I think there is generally quite a bit of optimism from fans surrounding Year 2 of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard in Milwaukee, the biggest opportunity for the Bucks to improve this season comes in the portion of the roster you’ve brought up, Owen.
It might not have always looked pretty, but the Bucks were effective when Antetokounmpo and Lillard shared the floor last season. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Bucks were plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions with those two on the floor last season. That can improve as they learn how to play together better, but having greater depth will allow the Bucks to perform better in the moments those two are not sharing the floor. Taking a look at the three offseason additions versus the players they are replacing reveals why the opportunity is big for the Bucks.
Let’s start with Gary Trent Jr. in the only open spot in the starting lineup as he has the biggest shoes to fill. Malik Beasley was not perfect last season, but he was out on the floor every night and racked up numbers. Beasley was one of just 54 NBA players to play at least 2,300 minutes last season (2,337) across 79 games, and he started 77. He led the Bucks with 224 made 3-point field goals, good for the 11th-most in the NBA. The 27-year-old shooting guard averaged 11.3 points in 29.6 minutes per game.
Those aren’t All-Star numbers, but they were certainly strong enough for Beasley to be a positive. Lineups featuring Beasley were plus-5.8 points per 100 possessions last season. Since Antetokounmpo blossomed into a superstar, the player whom the Bucks have invested in the most at shooting guard has tended to be able to put up strong numbers. Malcolm Brogdon, Donte DiVincenzo, Wesley Matthews, Grayson Allen and Beasley all put up great seasons in that spot, so Trent will have a great opportunity to do the same.
The biggest chance for improvement in that spot, however, will come on the other end. Starting next to Lillard, Trent will be expected to guard the best backcourt scoring threat like Beasley did last season. Trent’s previous stops suggest he may have the defensive proclivity to do better in that role than Beasley.
While Trent will be given a tough ask to improve on Beasley’s strong performance, it will be quite a bit easier for the Bucks’ other two offseason additions to make a bigger contribution than the players they are replacing.
Crowder was never able to regain his form after his holdout in Phoenix to start the 2022-23 season, and his time in Milwaukee will be viewed as a disappointment. The veteran forward could not find a way to make a consistent positive impact for the Bucks, and that will make it easier for Taurean Prince to replace his production this season.
Last season, Crowder played only 1,156 minutes across 50 games and shot 34.9 percent from 3 in 23.1 minutes per game. While former Lakers head coach (and current Bucks assistant) Darvin Ham might have leaned on him too much, Prince played 2,108 minutes across 78 games for Los Angeles and shot 39.6 percent from 3 in 27 minutes per game. That same level of opportunity may not be available to Prince in Milwaukee this season, but the 30-year-old forward will have a chance to be a versatile player off the bench whom Rivers can use in multiple configurations. If he can continue to shoot the ball well from 3, he has a real chance to carve out a large role coming off the bench.
At this time last offseason, the Bucks did not have a true backup point guard on the roster and seemed content entering the season with rookie Andre Jackson Jr. handling some of those chances along with Antetokounmpo and Middleton. Then, at the end of September, they traded for Lillard and opened up a roster spot to sign Cam Payne to fill the role. At the trade deadline, the Bucks moved Payne for Patrick Beverley, and those two veteran guards took most of the opportunities at backup point guard.
Payne’s production largely came on the offensive end, while Beverley tried to bring greater edge and toughness to the defense. And while there were times when both players accomplished their goals, neither player’s performance would be viewed as overwhelmingly positive. Payne’s offensive contribution was just never something the Bucks needed with a team full of offensive firepower, and Beverley’s defense was not what it used to be during his prime.
Wright will have an opportunity to improve the Bucks’ production at backup point guard. He is four years younger than Beverley and knocked down 36.8 percent from behind the 3-point line. If Bucks head coach Doc Rivers wants to give it a look, he could also play Wright next to Lillard, just as he did at times with Beverley last season. Wright has only played 97 games in the last two seasons combined, so he will need to prove he can stay on the court more consistently this season. If he can do that, he could easily outperform the Bucks’ backup point guards from last season, especially if he finds the form he had with the Miami Heat in last year’s playoffs.
How many more seasons can Giannis lean on his physical play before his body starts to give way? —Anonymous U.
This is a topic I’ve seen popping up a lot more in mailbags this offseason, as well as a topic I’ve seen folks bring up more often on some of the national podcasts. After watching Antetokounmpo complete only two of the Bucks’ 11 postseason games in the last two seasons, I understand why it is getting more attention and thought, but I just don’t know that it is something to spend all that much time worrying about.
Last season, per Basketball Reference’s Stathead tool, Antetokounmpo became the second player in NBA history, along with Oscar Robertson, to average at least 30 points, 11 rebounds and six assists per game. He became the first player in NBA history to average 30 points per game with a field-goal percentage above 60 percent. Antetokounmpo shot 77 percent at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass, and his effective field-goal percentage of 62.4 percent was the best of his 11-year career.
It’s tough to write off the injuries that have kept him out of most of the last two postseasons. It is also impossible to ignore those injuries because they played a significant role in the team’s early playoff exits, but I’m not sure I’d support using those two examples as part of an argument that suggests Antetokounmpo’s body is going to give way any time soon. They were awfully timed, but they don’t seem to be part of a greater pattern, in my opinion.
The eight-time All-NBA selection and two-time NBA MVP is one of the most maniacal workers in the NBA and does everything in his power to stay in the best shape possible, so I think he’ll continue to maintain a high level of fitness and strength.
Something I hear very few people talking about is the chances of a team-wide “falling off the (age) cliff” scenario. With Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton being where they are from an age standpoint, combined with the not great history of how smaller-sized guards age combined with the miles and minor injuries adding up for Giannis, what do you think would happen at the trade deadline if this team is severely underperforming and showing its age? Could you see a blow-it-up/doomsday scenario occurring (in spite of the Bucks not owning their draft for some time)? — Michael S.
If the team continues to struggle to integrate Dame and Giannis, what are the chances of a midseason trade of Dame? Trading Dame to a team trying to get over the hump and win a title (and willing to mortgage the future to do it) might be the only way to reset the roster to compete beyond this coming year. — Bart W.
With both of these questions, I think it’s important to remember that a midseason trade would mean giving the pairing of Antetokounmpo and Lillard roughly 16 months to jell together. The NBA moves fast, no doubt, but that feels like an incredibly short period to give to two of the league’s highest-usage players to figure out how to play together. And that doesn’t even factor in the fact that Antetokounmpo and Lillard are the two members of the core four with the longest guaranteed contracts.
Teams need to make tough decisions all the time, but I think it’s important to remember that the Bucks’ All-NBA duo was just scratching the surface of what they could do together when injuries started to send the season sideways at the end of the season. The Bucks lost in double overtime to the Lakers when their clutch-time offense scuffled and ultimately cost them the game late on March 26, but this was one of their first offensive possessions of the game:
This is beautiful basketball. pic.twitter.com/MWFd2pZtPr
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 26, 2024
During his pregame media session in New Orleans two days later, Rivers called that play “The Holy Grail” for the Bucks as it showed what the team could do with multiple actions and great chemistry between Antetokounmpo and Lillard. Later that night, Lillard went out of the game against the Pelicans to get stitches on his lip, but he also took a knee to his left calf that forced him to miss part of that game and eventually the team revealed he also strained his groin in that game, an injury that would linger for the rest of the season. Six games later, Antetokounmpo suffered what ultimately became a season-ending left soleus strain. The Bucks may never have found their groove last season, but injuries robbed them of the opportunity to find out what could have been in the postseason.
As far as blowing it up this season, it would be a major departure from how this organization has operated under general manager Jon Horst. Since taking over in 2017, pretty much every move Horst has attempted to bring the Bucks closer to winning a championship. That pursuit was successful in 2021. The team’s core is aging and Horst will need to be thinking about the future, but this organization’s priority has been trying to win and doing everything in their power to nudge the team closer to a championship. Blowing it up midseason would run contrary to that goal.
(Photo of Gary Trent Jr. and Jae Crowder: Cole Burston / Getty Images)
