The starting quarterback for the No. 2 team in the country is hurt and may not be available for the College Football Playoff. That quarterback, Carson Beck, is potentially one of the top three quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft. And just for good measure, while Georgia is getting an unexpected early look at Beck’s heir apparent, Gunner Stockton, the transfer portal is open, and the Bulldogs may like quarterbacks who pop in there.
That’s a lot. Let’s see what we know on all those fronts, starting with …
Beck’s injury and timeline
Timothy Gibson is an orthopedic surgeon at MemorialCare Orange Coast Medical Center in Fountain Valley, Calif. Gibson was watching the SEC Championship Game and saw the hit Beck took, and Gibson’s immediate reaction was either it was a shoulder sublex injury or an elbow UCL injury.
Baseball pitchers hurt their UCL on a gradual basis, via repeated throwing that stretches the ligament until it tears. In football, it happens via a traumatic injury, similar to Beck.
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“The ligament itself is usually in pristine shape until it pops,” Gibson said. “Whereas baseball it slowly happens over time.”
There are three grades to UCL injuries:
Grade 1: A minimal tear, similar to a bruise, where ligaments have a partial injury.
Grade 2: A tear where the UCL is a little loose with some fibers intact.
Grade 3: A complete tear.
Georgia did not announce the results of the MRI, so the grade is not known. It didn’t even say it was to the UCL, only that it was an elbow injury. Georgia did not announce that Beck will have surgery, and Gibson said Grade 1 is the only kind where an athlete might not get surgery, but he cautioned that a lack of public announcement may not be confirmation that surgery is off the table.
But what if it is a Grade 1 injury? Rest and rehab of at least four weeks are recommended. Beck got hurt on Dec. 7, and the Sugar Bowl is on Jan. 1, which is four weeks later.
“My gut feeling would be even a Grade 1, he would not be playing soon. He might avoid surgery, but I wouldn’t think he’s playing anytime soon,” Gibson said. “I would think three to four weeks would be as fast as possible. But there are so many variables with his exam, tenderness, if it hurts to throw in four weeks, he’s not going to play.”
The other consideration is the NFL draft. A Grade 1 tear could heal by itself in eight to 12 weeks, perhaps in time for the NFL Scouting Combine. If Beck gets surgery, however, he’s taking any pre-draft workouts off the table. The good news for him is a relatively new surgery, referred to as internal brace surgery, is a repair process that has become popular with NFL quarterbacks like Brock Purdy, who suffered the injury in the 2022 NFL playoffs but was back in time for the next season.
That could enter Beck’s thinking, especially if it is a Grade 1 sprain: The chance for re-injury could delay the NFL draft process, so he could shut it down and start the healing process. Or he could truly take it day-by-day and see if there’s a chance to help Georgia in the Playoff.
“Theoretically, four weeks is really pushing it, but he has access to great rehab. That’s the best-case scenario,” Gibson said. “I wouldn’t give up on it. But he also might decide it’s not worth it for his career. That’s a legit option for him. ‘It’s not worth it. I have a bad injury, I need to be ready for next year.’ That wouldn’t be selfish. That would be reasonable because the risk of going back even with a Grade 1 is re-injury.”
The NFL draft
It’s unknowable where Beck would have been picked if he had gone pro after the 2023 season, but it seems pretty safe to say his stock took a hit this season. After being projected as a possible No. 1 overall pick entering the season, the feedback from scouts is “generally in the third- to fourth-round range,” per The Athletic’s draft analyst, Dane Brugler.
So how much would Beck be hurt by this injury? Not that much, actually, according to Brugler:
“Not being able to work out pre-draft won’t damage his draft grade. Teams have two years of tape. They have a good understanding of his physical skill set. He will still go through the interview process. But it will be a missed opportunity. Other quarterbacks could potentially make strong cases to be drafted ahead of Beck with strong all-star performances or workouts.”
What helps Beck is this is considered a weak quarterback class. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward are projected high in the first round, but after that, Beck could be competing with Quinn Ewers to be the third quarterback, if a prospect like Alabama’s Jalen Milroe stays for one more year.
Even though he is a fifth-year senior, Beck has the option to return another year because 2020 didn’t count and 2021 can be considered a redshirt year. But he already has played enough that there may not be much to gain from another year.
“I think there would be more to lose than gain,” Brugler said. “If he has a perfect season, yeah, he’ll get bumped up. But the biggest question is his mobility and ability to create when he gets heated up. Another year could shine a brighter light on that issue.”
What does Georgia do?
Stockton almost certainly will take the first-team reps once practice begins for the Sugar Bowl and probably will take those up to the game. The team probably will build its game plan around Stockton, and it likely won’t be as run-heavy as the SEC championship. Stockton’s running ability is a plus, but he has more downfield throwing ability than he showed in that game when he was inserted on the fly and took advantage of Texas having prepared for Beck’s pocket passing.
As for the backups, freshman Ryan Puglisi probably will move up to No. 2 and sophomore Jaden Rashada up to No. 3, although perhaps with some quick, renewed competition.
Until Beck is ruled out, he is the wild card. If he is available, he doesn’t need a huge amount of practice reps, given his experience. But when he’s able to practice and for how much still matter.
There’s also the matter of the portal: Even before all this, Georgia felt good about Stockton as the heir apparent for 2025, with the caveat that if a quarterback the coaches liked became available, they would pursue it. California quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who announced he was entering the portal on Wednesday, would qualify. Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold could be another.
Beck’s injury complicates matters. Any potential transfer will be curious whether Stockton performs so well that he locks down the job. Or Beck could return. Or Georgia could somehow end up with the best of both worlds of Stockton performing great but a transfer not being afraid of competition.
Of course, there are more than three weeks until the game, and Mendoza and other quarterbacks may not want to wait that long to make a decision. Stockton getting a trial by fire could prove a blessing or a curse for the program. It’s a fascinating situation, at least for those watching from the outside. For Georgia and its coaches, it’s a dilemma to be managed very carefully.
(Top photo: Brett Davis / Imagn Images)
