FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — Three months ago, the idea that the Atlanta Falcons would have a 41 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 37 percent chance to win the NFC South in the second week of December would have seemed less than ideal but not terrible. Now, it seems like a looming disaster.
The Falcons (6-7) have lost four straight games, wasting what once was a 95 percent chance to make the postseason and a 93 percent chance to win the division, according to The Athletic’s playoff projections. Tampa Bay (7-6) took over first place in the division Sunday by beating Las Vegas 28-13 for its third straight win.
It’s the sort of collapse, or potential collapse, that Atlanta fans might think only happens to them. In fact, most NFL seasons have at least one team that starts fast only to sputter down the stretch. The 2023 Jaguars started 6-3 and finished 9-8. The 2022 Jets started 6-3 and finished 7-10. The 2021 Ravens started 8-3 and finished 8-9. The 2019 Panthers started 5-3 and finished 5-11. They all missed the playoffs, and they all had plenty of company before them.
How can the Falcons avoid becoming this season’s what-might-have-been team? That’s what we’re here to discuss.
What has to change?
Atlanta must fix the many issues that have led to its losing streak. Turnover margin is first on that list. The Falcons are last in the NFL since Week 8 at minus-8. They have turned the ball over nine times and only gotten one in return.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been the biggest factor. He has thrown eight interceptions and no touchdowns in his last four outings, the worst such stretch of his 13-year career. The Falcons are sticking with Cousins “for sure” as their starter despite that, coach Raheem Morris said this week.
“Kirk is the guy who’s going to lead us,” Morris said. “If that time ever came (to make a change), I’d have a lot of confidence in what (rookie Michael Penix Jr.) could do, but Kirk’s our quarterback.”
Cousins is not the only problem.
DJ CALLED GAME
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— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 1, 2024
The Falcons are 25th in points allowed (25.62 per game). They have given up 30 or more points four times this season. They are last in the league in sacks (19) despite having nine in the last two weeks. The secondary allows the second-highest wide-open rate (15.9 percent) to opposing receivers, according to FTN Fantasy’s tracking. The defense hasn’t forced any turnovers in five of the last seven games.
“The ball is the No. 1 thing in this league, and turnover margin drastically impacts winning percentage,” linebacker Nate Landman said. “We need to get back on the positive side of that. It’s an emphasis each and every week. It’s something we work on every day as a defense.”
The offense is 26th in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on fewer than half of its trips inside the 20-yard line (48.8 percent). Since Week 10, it is 31st (30.8 percent). It is 20th in third-down conversions (37.3 percent) and 28th since Week 10 (35.2 percent).
The Falcons have committed 47 offensive penalties, the 10th most in the league, including a season-high seven last week against Minnesota. Four times this season, the team has lost more than 70 yards to penalties.
The sum of all those issues has been a team that is last in scoring margin (minus-60) since Week 10.
“Everyone is working their ass off to get it fixed, and I have the utmost confidence in everyone we have,” left tackle Jake Matthews said. “We will just go back to work and try to turn this thing around and get hot at the end of the year.”
What does the schedule look like?
This is where there’s some good news. The Falcons have the easiest remaining schedule, according to The Athletic’s projections. They play at the Raiders, at home against the Giants, at the Commanders and at home against the Panthers to finish the season. Washington is the only one of those teams with more than three wins.
The bad news is that the Buccaneers’ final slate is only slightly harder. They play at the Chargers, at the Cowboys and at home against the Panthers and then the Saints to finish the season. Tampa Bay’s schedule is the fifth-easiest remaining.
The Falcons’ tiebreaker edge over the Buccaneers means they only need to make up one game on Tampa Bay. They have a 64 percent chance to beat the Raiders, a 78 percent chance to beat the Giants, a 46 percent chance to beat the Commanders and a 74 percent chance to beat the Panthers, according to The Athletic’s projections.
Who should Atlanta fans root against?
The Buccaneers, obviously, but also the Rams, Cardinals, 49ers and Commanders. The Lions and Eagles already have clinched playoff spots in the NFC. The Vikings and Packers each have better than a 97 percent chance of earning wild-card spots.
That leaves one wild-card spot. That could go to any of the NFC West teams. Seattle leads the division at 8-5 and everyone else is either 7-6 or 6-7. The Commanders are 8-5 but have lost three of their last four.
Given the nature of the wild-card tiebreakers, the Falcons would be best served by the Seahawks winning their division because Seattle’s 34-14 in Week 7 would give it the tiebreaker edge over Atlanta. The Seahawks (11th-hardest), 49ers (12th), Rams (13th) and Commanders (19th) all have harder remaining schedules than the Falcons.
(Photo of Tyler Allgeier and Drake London: David Berding / Getty Images)
