There is no one metric that definitively shows which are the best and worst college football teams. Other than points. Maybe wins and losses.
But as for how they get those wins and points, we’ve discussed a few seemingly obscure but key metrics this season: explosive play margin, and yards per play margin. Let’s add in another: sudden change margin.
And yes, the word “margin” is the theme here, because defense alone doesn’t win championships anymore, nor does offense alone. Playing complementary football does, and margin captures that by comparing how teams do on offense (explosive plays and yards per play) and defense (teams’ opponents explosive plays and YPP).
Here’s how sudden change margin came in: This week we checked in with TruMedia to see how explosive play margin was going in SEC games. (As a reminder, explosives are termed here as rushes of 12 or more yards and passes of 16 yards or more.) And just as before, the team that has more explosives than its opponent tends to win, especially the better the margin.
SEC teams with …
plus-5 explosive margin or better in that game: 34-4
plus-1 to plus-4: 22-4
even: 7-8
minus-1 to minus-4: 7-12
minus-5 or worse: 3-11
But within that there was a more telling tidbit: In SEC games where both teams were ranked, the team with the better explosive play margin went 6-0. There was a seventh such game, in which the teams were tied in explosives: Georgia’s win over Texas. We know what else happened in that game, that Georgia’s defense dominated, limiting Texas to just 3.4 yards per play. But Georgia’s offense didn’t exactly dominate, averaging only 3.9 ypp. So why was it a wire-to-wire 15-point win for the visitors?
Red zone efficiency, an oft-cited metric, was negligible: Georgia converted on four of five trips, including three touchdowns and a field goal, while Texas got two touchdowns in three trips. Georgia was just in the red zone more — and the main reason for that was turnovers, which is where we get to sudden change.
Georgia was plus-one in turnover margin (four to three), but what it did with those turnovers was more key. And what the Longhorns did not.
Quarterback Carson Beck was picked off on two of Georgia’s first three possessions, including once in his own territory. Texas scored zero points off those first two turnovers.
But when Texas turned it over deep in its own territory, on Daylen Everette’s sack-strip, Georgia punched it in for the touchdown. When Everette picked off a pass in the second quarter, Georgia’s offense again scored a touchdown. Then another sack-strip near the end of the half led to a Georgia field goal, making it 23-0 at halftime.
Texas did get the third-quarter touchdown after Beck’s third interception. (That being the overturned pass interference.) And Georgia only punted after the final Texas turnover, a fumble that came on fourth down. But the final margin in points off turnovers: 17-7 in Georgia’s favor.
Sudden change is the term coaches use. On offense, it measures how good you are at taking advantage of mistakes. On defense, it measures composure, and Georgia holding Texas to zero points on the first two turnovers — in fact forcing one after the second one — was the early turning point of the game.
South Carolina is another case study. The Gamecocks capitalized on early turnovers to rush out to a 21-0 lead at Oklahoma last week. But what most stands out about the Gamecocks is their defense’s response this year, allowing only 19 points off 12 South Carolina turnovers.
“It’s huge. Obviously momentum is a real thing,” South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer said. “We have a mantra around here of just putting the ball down. It doesn’t matter what happened, defensively we’ve got to go put the ball down and get a stop. So we emphasize taking the ball away. We emphasize protecting the football, like everybody does. And when you’re able to get in a sudden change situation, good or bad, we want to be able to respond the right way.”
South Carolina has the second-best sudden change margin in the SEC, behind only Vanderbilt. Per TruMedia, here are the leaders this season in sudden change margin. Notice how many of the surprise teams are on this list:
| Team | Margin |
|---|---|
 Navy |
Plus-66
|
 UNLV |
Plus-64
|
 BYU |
Plus-59
|
 Duke |
Plus-57
|
 Tulane |
Plus-57
|
 SMU |
Plus-56
|
 Indiana |
Plus-49
|
 Memphis |
Plus-48
|
|
Plus-47
|
|
 Clemson |
Plus-45
|
 Washington State |
Plus-45
|
 South Alabama |
Plus-41
|
 Vanderbilt |
Plus-41
|
 Buffalo |
Plus-40
|
 South Carolina |
Plus-39
|
 Ole Miss |
Plus-39
|
 Notre Dame |
Plus-38
|
 Iowa State |
Plus-37
|
 UCF |
Plus-35
|
 Minnesota |
Plus-35
|
A few other CFP contenders or surprise teams are close behind: Ohio State (plus-32), Colorado (plus-31), Texas (plus-28), Army (plus-28), LSU and Tennessee (plus-27 each).
But who is dead last nationally, 134th out of 134 teams? If you guess Florida State, congratulations: The Seminoles are minus-65.
In between, there are a few anomalies: Miami is minus-2, which ranks 76th nationally, yet unbeaten. Oregon, the top-ranked team in the country, is only plus-5. Penn State, yet another unbeaten, is only plus-8.
Then there’s Georgia, which may be able to credit its big win at Texas for sudden change margin, but for the season is plus-10, which helps explain some of its underwhelming wins. (In the loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs were minus-7).
Here is the full SEC list, along with the pure turnover margin:
| Team | Sudden change margin | Turnover margin |
|---|---|---|
|
Vanderbilt |
Plus-41
|
Plus-6
|
|
South Carolina |
Plus-39
|
Plus-4
|
|
Ole Miss |
Plus-39
|
Plus-4
|
|
Plus-28
|
Plus-2
|
|
 LSU |
Plus-27
|
Plus-4
|
|
Plus-27
|
Plus-1
|
|
|
Plus-21
|
Plus-4
|
|
 Alabama |
Plus-18
|
Plus-4
|
 Texas A&M |
Plus-18
|
Plus-5
|
 Florida |
Plus-14
|
Minus-1
|
 Georgia |
Plus-10
|
Even
|
 Mississippi State |
Plus-10
|
Plus-2
|
 Oklahoma |
Plus-9
|
Plus-3
|
 Kentucky |
Minus-3
|
Minus-1
|
 Auburn |
Minus-15
|
Minus-10
|
 Arkansas |
Minus-33
|
Minus-5
|
Meanwhile, here is the updated yards-per-play margin:
| School | Offense | Defense | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ole Miss |
7.68
|
4.06
|
Plus-3.62
|
 Texas |
6.61
|
3.74
|
Plus-2.87
|
 Tennessee |
6.44
|
4.03
|
Plus-2.41
|
|
Auburn |
6.92
|
4.95
|
Plus-1.97
|
|
Alabama |
6.76
|
4.79
|
Plus-1.97
|
|
Florida |
6.81
|
5.21
|
Plus-1.60
|
|
Georgia |
6.44
|
4.91
|
Plus-1.53
|
|
Texas A&M |
6.23
|
5.10
|
Plus-1.13
|
|
Arkansas |
6.31
|
5.22
|
Plus-1.09
|
 Missouri |
5.81
|
4.86
|
Plus-0.95
|
|
LSU |
6.53
|
5.76
|
Plus-0.77
|
|
South Carolina |
5.01
|
4.44
|
Plus-0.57
|
|
Vanderbilt |
5.77
|
5.62
|
Plus-0.15
|
|
Mississippi State |
5.50
|
6.41
|
Minus-0.91
|
|
Kentucky |
5.02
|
5.58
|
Minus-0.56
|
|
Oklahoma |
4.31
|
4.87
|
Minus-0.56
|
This is not necessarily predictive: Last year after six games, Alabama was seventh in the SEC but rocketed up to third by the end of the regular season, then beat Georgia (which was second, behind LSU).
A lot of this can be attributed to schedule. Ole Miss and Texas have both played only one currently AP-ranked team and three non-power conference teams. Tennessee has also played only one ranked team, plus two non-power conference teams.
As for some of the others, you can point back to sudden change margin as a reason: Auburn has great YPP margin but is minus-15 in sudden change margin, ranked 95th in the nation. Vanderbilt and South Carolina are barely above water in YPP margin but first and second in the SEC in sudden change margin.
Just something else to consider on why things are happening the way they are.
(Photo of Georgia linebacker Daylen Everette (6), defensive end Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (93) and linebacker Chris Cole (18): Brett Patzke / Imagn Images)
