Everyone is talking about Indiana football, the No. 5 team in the land for the second straight week according to the College Football Playoff selection committee’s Tuesday offering. The Hoosiers would be No. 17 in the Southeastern Conference, per squawkers of hypothetical analysis who dare them to cross the border south into Kentucky and take on any of the teams they see for the next 800 miles.
There’s a lot of dumb going around. And I’m not even talking about Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville. That accomplished breaker of contracts renewed his calls for money to be removed from the recruiting process and for players to be penalized for transferring while citing Indiana as a dastardly example of a bought team, what with first-year coach Curt Cignetti bringing 14 dudes with him from James Madison.
“But my thoughts are, you know, you sign a contract on NIL, I mean you can’t just up and break it.”
Senator/Coach, you broke your Texas Tech contract in the middle of a recruiting dinner to leave for Cincinnati. https://t.co/1y4JPtVRIb
— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) November 19, 2024
No, let’s keep it to football and the 12-team Playoff picture. That discourse is silly enough, thank you. The committee didn’t do anything outrageous Tuesday, but it did make official the scenario that’s been causing all kinds of pre-outrage. Indiana, unbeaten but with no wins of note, is in great shape. Tennessee, a loser at Arkansas and Georgia but a winner over Alabama, is ranked No. 11 and would not be in the field if these were the final rankings.
This is a screaming match now. And it’s the most likely screaming match, except cranked up to 11 on the amplifier, on Dec. 8 when the field is set.
The Hoosiers and Vols could have clarity by then. No. 9 Ole Miss could take a third loss in an upset at Florida. No. 6 Notre Dame could lose to Army or USC. Someone has to lose when No. 3 Texas visits No. 15 Texas A&M. If it’s the Longhorns, Texas’ resume looks awfully thin, and the Aggies could take a third loss in the SEC title game. No. 7 Alabama could suffer loss No. 3 in Atlanta, too. And yes, those losses count.
Also, Tennessee could lose at Vanderbilt and be made officially unworthy. Indiana could win Saturday at No. 2 Ohio State and have a case for the No. 1 ranking and cause to tell everyone to shut the hell up.
But expected outcomes tell us 10-2 Tennessee vs. 11-1 Indiana — the fifth SEC team or the fourth Big Ten team — is the most likely argument in the end. It’s a great one now. So let’s do it, beyond Indiana at 10-0 with no Top 25 wins and the No. 79 strength of schedule, per The Athletic’s Austin Mock, vs. Tennessee at 8-2 with one Top 25 win and the No. 42 strength of schedule.
First, let’s see if we can agree on some statements.
• The SEC is the best league in college football, with the highest number of quality teams and the most collective talent. Saying so is stating the obvious, not acting as a double agent on behalf of ESPN’s business interests.
• The SEC may be the best league, but each team is scrutinized on its own merits, which is especially important in this era of overstuffed conferences with widely varying schedules.
• Indiana should be ranked ahead of most, if not all, SEC teams at this moment.
• What anyone thinks “would” happen means nothing right now.
Anyone questioning the first statement likely is clouded by SEC fatigue. Some are struggling with the last two, particularly in SEC country, joined this week by voices such as The Ringer’s Ryen Russillo and Todd McShay to strengthen the “Indiana can’t be that good” chorus.
“How in the hell, in what world, is Penn State and Indiana better than Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee?” McShay said on Russillo’s podcast. “I just don’t see it. They’re just not. I get it, like you have resumes and records and all that stuff, but they’re just not.”
Yeah, forget things that have actually happened. Let’s keep going with what “would” happen.
That worked out so well entering the season. Notre Dame would destroy Northern Illinois. Vanderbilt would be lucky to get three wins and would need another 40 years or so to beat Alabama. Colorado would break even at best.
Indiana would struggle to make a bowl game, which is why Cignetti predecessor Tom Allen decided to zap a previously scheduled game with a quality team south of the border, Louisville. I mean, look at that Big Ten schedule — at Ohio State, defending national champion Michigan, national runner-up Washington, resurgent-for-real-this-time Nebraska, an absolute gauntlet!
Indiana hasn’t played a better schedule than Tennessee, in part because so many things we thought would be true haven’t been. But Indiana has played better football than Tennessee.
And their journeys aren’t as drastically different as some are suggesting. Both destroyed an FCS team, Indiana 77-3 over Western Illinois and Tennessee 69-3 over Chattanooga. Tennessee also had games on its schedule that looked tough going in and don’t count for much now, wins over NC State in Charlotte and at Oklahoma.
Tennessee lost at Arkansas, a team that’s roughly the same quality as several teams Indiana throttled. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index ratings, Arkansas is No. 32, which is higher than any team Indiana has played.
So let’s keep going with FPI, which ranks Tennessee No. 9 and Indiana No. 11. Let’s include this week’s games, Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State and No. 129 UTEP at Tennessee. Indiana’s 10 opponents have an average FPI rating of 64.9. Tennessee’s have an average FPI rating of 54.2, thanks in part to a game against the team that ranks dead last at No. 134, Kent State.
Indiana beat the first nine of those opponents by an average of 25.2 points per game. This includes a 56-7 humiliation of the Cornhuskers and a 14-point win over Washington with backup quarterback Tayven Jackson in for starter Kurtis Rourke.
Tennessee is plus-16.1 points per game in average margin against its nine FBS opponents. This includes an overtime escape of Florida, a lot of bad offense and a lot of excellent defense. And it includes the win over Alabama, an achievement well beyond any of Indiana’s.
But winning every game is an achievement of note, isn’t it?
The Hoosiers have the better quarterback. Nico Iamaleava has the higher ceiling, but Rourke has been consistently sharp enough to be in New York for the Heisman ceremony. That and a clear identity traced to Cignetti, who is going to win some national coach of the year awards, explain why Indiana has performed at a higher level.
It’s close. It’s very close. What would happen? If these teams played 10 times on a neutral field, I’d take the more talented Vols to win six. If we’re talking one game, I think Tennessee would win a close one. Which means nothing.
Indiana at Ohio State on Saturday, now that means something. It’s much better when the football speaks for itself.
(Photos of Kurtis Rourke, Dylan Sampson: Trevor Ruszkowski, Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)
