Once a week for an hour during the Premier League season, The Athletic’s Newcastle United subscribers have the opportunity to ask our writers covering the club for their views and insight into what’s happening at St James’ Park.
Here, we have pulled together some of their questions and our answers from Monday’s edition of our Inside Newcastle live Q&A, which included queries about Jose Mourinho supposedly being interested in becoming their manager, whether player sales are necessary for financial reasons, and if “marquee signings” will arrive in 2025.
Want to ask a question on anything Newcastle-related? Chris Waugh will be back next Monday at 2pm GMT (9am ET) for another session.
Are we going to make top-level marquee signings in January/next summer? I think we’ve gone long enough with this careful project-building and need to spend big to make a difference. What are your thoughts? — Nigel J
Chris Waugh: The Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR) are not disappearing, Nigel. The rules are set to be reformed, so they will no longer be judged over a three-year rolling period but instead will be measured on an annual revenue basis. If Newcastle want to be playing in European competition, they can only spend 70 per cent of their yearly revenue on transfer fees, wages and agent costs combined. The Premier League’s rules are due to be set at 85 per cent, but UEFA’s are more restrictive.
Despite Newcastle’s revenue growing by around a third per year, their income is still dwarfed by that of the so-called domestic ‘Big Six’. That means they simply cannot match those clubs’ expenditure, and it is why players aged 25 and under are being scouted, as they tend to be cheaper than ones who are in their prime. It is also why Paul Mitchell, the sporting director, is attempting to expand the geographical areas Newcastle recruit in — to provide greater value for money by tapping into markets outside of Europe’s top-five leagues.
Regardless, Newcastle and head coach Eddie Howe are keen to bring in quality additions who materially improve the starting XI. Part of the reason Howe did not push for some of the alternative centre-backs to Marc Guehi of Crystal Palace who were identified during the summer, such as Chelsea’s Axel Disasi, is they were not considered a significant upgrade on the players already at the club.
If a top-class individual who is attainable becomes available, then Newcastle are willing to invest heavily, as they were with Guehi. But every signing brought in affects their PSR situation and, with their wage bill increasing, they do face significant restrictions.
There is no guarantee Newcastle will sign anyone in the upcoming winter window; they will only bring in the “right players”, as they describe them, for reasonable prices. The club view summer windows as more conducive to doing business and so they will invest during the off-season, though even that may have to be offset by the sale of a big-name player. They simply have to start trading better.
Newcastle are still not in a position to compete for “marquee” signings, certainly not the kind of names Real Madrid, Manchester City and Liverpool will be competing for. Their business has to be smarter and more thrifty.
Is it true that Jose Mourinho wants the Newcastle job? — Tony C
Waugh: The reports linking Mourinho with Newcastle appear to have come from his side — and are certainly not being encouraged at the St James’ end. The Newcastle hierarchy have full faith in Howe — and held that stance even before the three successive wins in their last three games — and were baffled by the links.
There is an emotional connection between Newcastle and Mourinho, given their respective adoration of Sir Bobby Robson, and a few years ago it felt likely that, should a takeover occur, Mourinho would be in the St James’ home dugout one day. But his stock has fallen significantly, which is why he has ended up with Fenerbahce in the Turkish league, while Howe’s has risen and the current Newcastle head coach has an excellent bank of work upon which he continues to build.
Mourinho does not seem happy at Fenerbahce and seems to be angling for a return to the Premier League. He is not going to be taken on by a title challenger in England if he does come back, so he probably views Newcastle as the highest calibre of club he thinks would appoint him.
But there is no job vacancy on Tyneside and Newcastle are not — and have not been — actively exploring alternatives to Howe, who is on a long-term contract and is highly valued internally, including by Mitchell, despite their early relationship difficulties.
Any truth to the rumours Emil Krafth has suffered a significant injury? If true, and Fabian Schar picks up an injury too, we’d be very exposed — Neil C
Waugh: Krafth broke his collar bone in training. It is a blow for the club, given their lack of fit senior centre-backs. Dan Burn is suspended for West Ham immediately after the international break, with Lloyd Kelly now set to deputise at left centre-back.
Sven Botman is set to return to light training soon after his long layoff and, although there have been some suggestions behind the scenes the Dutchman could be back in matchday squads in the coming weeks, Howe has publicly stated the best-case scenario is the middle-to-end of December for his return, if not January. Jamaal Lascelles, meanwhile, is further behind in rehabilitation of his own ACL knee injury, so will not play again this year.
That leaves Newcastle stretched, given Krafth started three games at right centre-half early this season when Schar was suspended and also made an appearance in his preferred right-back role against Chelsea in the Carabao Cup. There is some cover, but Krafth’s versatility will be missed.
Are we at risk of losing Alexander Isak to Arsenal? We’ve done well to get new contracts for Bruno Guimaraes, Anthony Gordon and Joelinton. Surely we’ve got to do the same with Isak? — Chris P
Waugh: There seems to be a desire from some pundits with Arsenal connections to get Isak to the Emirates. It is a link they bring up frequently, which is understandable given Arsenal’s lack of firepower and his exceptional Premier League record. He has 35 top-flight goals in 61 games (only 53 starts) for Newcastle and, after a slow start to this season, has four in his last four in all competitions.
However, Arsenal did not make any move for the 25-year-old back in the summer. It was Chelsea who made tentative enquiries at the height of Newcastle’s PSR crisis, rather than Arsenal and, while the north London club have tracked the Sweden international for years, admiring a player and making a concrete move to sign him are entirely different things.
While I understand the nervousness some Newcastle fans have regarding Isak’s contractual status, the striker’s situation differs from those of Guimaraes, Gordon and Joelinton. Those three players either had less time remaining on their deal — Joelinton was into the final 18 months of his — and/or they were not among the club’s highest earners, so their fresh terms raised them into that top bracket.
Isak, however, will still have three years left on his deal at the end of this season and he is already one of Newcastle’s best-paid players. Again, those dreaded three letters, PSR, come into play, because wages are a constant in that calculation and, given their present revenues, Newcastle cannot afford to raise their wage ceiling for top earners beyond the bracket of somewhere between £100,000 to £150,000 a week, as it is believed to stand at the moment.
If Newcastle fail to qualify for the 2025-26 Champions League, and especially if they do not secure any level of European football for next season, it potentially makes them susceptible to losing a player such as Isak, who has huge ambitions.
They are going to need to sell to invest going forward, so while Howe is determined to keep Isak pretty much above all other players currently in the squad, if an offer of over £100million ($128.6m) arrives for him, the club will have a decision to make. But, given the length of his deal, Newcastle are still in a strong bargaining position and are not rushing to extend it just yet.
Which youngster is pushing for first-team minutes? — John C
Waugh: Trevan Sanusi, 17, has been exciting at under-21 level, although he remains raw and needs time to develop before he is likely to be trusted at Premier League level. But Anthony Munda, the 18-year-old central midfielder, has also impressed coaching staff.
He was called up to first-team training ahead of last month’s match against Brighton, and his development is being monitored closely. Given Lewis Miley is now back from injury, Newcastle have depth in midfield, so Munda’s opportunities are likely to be severely limited for now, but first-team coaches like what they are seeing.
Assuming you could find a buyer in January, would you sell Miguel Almiron or Jacob Murphy? Or throw caution to the wind and sell them both? — Peter C
Waugh: The problem is this assumes interest in either or both, and Newcastle have not had any substantive offers for Murphy in recent windows, while Almiron has theoretically been available but no deal has been struck. Charlotte FC of MLS and Saudi Pro League sides have held discussions with Newcastle about the latter over the past two windows, but have been unable to offer the winger an attractive enough financial package, and/or make an acceptable offer to the club.
Permitting either of their exits must be partly dependent on potential incomings as well. If a right-winger is signed, it is likely to be because Almiron or Murphy have been sold, and neither departing at least partly contributed to no right-sided forward arriving during the summer. Their exit(s) would free some space in the wage budget, even if they are unlikely to recoup significant fees to really aid Newcastle’s PSR position.
As things stand, I would be shocked if they both left in January, and there is a decent chance neither will, unless a right-winger arrives.
Were we still required to sell if we had gone through with the Guehi transfer?— Sean T
Waugh: I am assuming you are asking if Newcastle would have been in a position where they had to move other players on had Guehi joined for a fee which was likely to have been in excess of £50million. The answer to that is yes, although they would not necessarily have had to do so before the end of that same summer window.
For the 2024-25 season, the present three-year rolling PSR regulations still exist, and in one of those years Newcastle recorded a £73.4million loss (2022-23). Their figures for last season are yet to be made public but, even given the sales of Elliot Anderson and Yankuba Minteh, which brought in around £65m combined, Newcastle are still in a position where they cannot afford to lose tens of millions in 2024-25 and hope to comply.
The situation is nowhere near as stark as it was in June, but Newcastle’s increasing wage budget and general cost base mean they still need to find a way to become better sellers to ensure continued compliance. In other words, they must improve in terms of moving on fringe players, selling a star name, or parting with academy graduates — or a combination of all three. That will become even more important from next season, when the annual cost controls come in, given Newcastle’s wages-to-revenue ratio has been increasing.
That is why, despite Sean Longstaff’s importance to the team and their impressive winning statistics when he starts, the 27-year-old academy graduate’s long-term future remains uncertain, as he would represent pure profit if he is sold.
(Top photo: Alexander Isak; Ed Sykes via Getty Images)
