(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 11, 2024.)
2. The Chiefs already have as many close-game victories as the 1972 Dolphins and 2007 Patriots had combined. What will it take for this team to lose?
The Chiefs’ 14-game winning streak dating to last season and counting playoffs was about as imperiled as it could have been when Denver Broncos kicker Will Lutz lined up for a 35-yard try on the final play Sunday.
The Chiefs led, 16-14, but NFL kickers over the past 10 seasons had made 94 percent of their tries from exactly 35 yards entering Week 10. That’s 262 makes in 280 tries, with only three of the 280 kicks blocked.
NOT IN OUR HOUSE 👆 pic.twitter.com/CnXgKHl3jU
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 10, 2024
The Chiefs’ Leo Chenal blocked the kick to secure a 9-0 start. Kansas City is 7-0 this season in games decided by seven or fewer points. The 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2007 Patriots, the only teams in the Super Bowl era to go unbeaten for a full regular season, combined for a 7-0 record in games decided by seven or fewer points. The Chiefs are living much closer to the edge through nine games than those teams lived over their full seasons.
| Win Margin | 1-3 Pts | 4-7 Pts |
|---|---|---|
|
2-0
|
5-0
|
|
|
3-0
|
1-0
|
|
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
The seven-point cutoff allows for an across-eras comparison with the 1972 Dolphins, who did not have two-point conversions available to them.
That the Chiefs already have as many close-game victories in nine games as the 1972 Dolphins and 2007 Patriots had in a combined 30 regular-season games suggests this Kansas City win streak will soon end — perhaps at Buffalo in Week 11.
Before Sunday, teams had a 1-54 record this season when finishing with negative EPA on both offense and defense. The Chiefs bucked that trend as well in beating Denver. They are now 2-11 in those games since Andy Reid became coach in 2013. Both victories were against the Broncos, including 30-27 at Denver in 2016, when the Chiefs won on special teams with Tyreek Hill’s 86-yard kickoff return, a recovered muffed punt in the fourth quarter and Denver’s missed 62-yard kick in overtime.
This was oh-so-close to becoming a signature victory for Broncos coach Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The game played out almost exactly how the Broncos wanted it to play out, as Payton said afterward, and Denver still lost.
#BroncosCountry LIVE: HC Sean Payton meets the media after #DENvsKC https://t.co/zlW7RSuMUJ
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 10, 2024
Is some sort of inexplicable Bills meltdown awaiting next week, with the Chiefs appearing so vulnerable? Or will the odds finally catch up to Kansas City?
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
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