New England Patriots coach Jerod Mayo’s winter hat was pulled low, and his deep breaths were visible thanks to the unwelcoming Buffalo air.
For so much of Sunday’s game against the Bills, he had been more aggressive than most of the previous Sundays. Perhaps he’d realized that in this lost season, there’s not much more to lose, especially when his team was a two-touchdown underdog on the road.
But then in this moment — down two scores, with his offense near midfield and a little more than eight minutes remaining — Mayo made a move that was so shockingly conservative, even for him. He punted. The Patriots needed two scores to pull off an improbable comeback against the division champs, but they didn’t even get two possessions thanks to the decision to punt on fourth-and-5.
NE decided to punt to BUF from the NE 45 on 4th & 6 with 8:33 remaining in the 4th while losing 14 to 24.
With a Surrender Index of 9.08, this punt ranks at the 95th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2024 season, and the 91st percentile of all punts since 1999.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) December 23, 2024
That left the Patriots with more of the same in their 24-21 loss to the Bills, thinking about what would’ve or could’ve been different had a few plays gone the other way. The Patriots are 3-12 with only two games left. Without a win against the Chargers or Bills in the next two weeks, it’ll be their worst season since Robert Kraft purchased the team 30 years ago.
The latest loss felt like so many others in this dreadful campaign. Drake Maye is a lot of fun, but the lack of talent is apparent everywhere and it’s easy to question a number of coaching decisions.
For so much of this season in New England, the losses have been easily excused. Expectations were low. They have arguably the worst roster in the league. The coaching staff is new and figuring it out. We always knew it would take time.
But after these last 15 games, and with the way Sunday in Buffalo went the hard truth is this: Mayo’s seat should be getting warmer. Kraft is going to have a tough decision ahead of him if the Patriots finish this season with just three wins.
The elephant in the room is that the best free-agent coach on the market is a Patriots Hall of Famer who was wined and dined by Kraft last season upon his induction. Mike Vrabel will surely be sought after as soon as coaching searches around the league kick into high gear following the season. And that complicates things for the Patriots.
Insiders across the league have made it clear that Kraft wants to retain Mayo — as long as he sees continued progress from the 38-year-old first-time coach he decided would succeed Bill Belichick.
But after another loss, have we really seen progress? Aside from Maye and the quarterback position, where have the Patriots gotten better since Belichick left? Where have they improved since Week 1?
“Never feel good after a loss,” Mayo told reporters afterward. “Our expectations remain high. We’ll get better. We’ll learn from this and we’ll move forward.”
Bills recover the backwards pass in the end zone!
📺: #NEvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/5M8pN2QBi1— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
After only losing by three points to the Bills, it would be easy to point out all the positives. The Patriots, after several players publicly backed Mayo this week, haven’t quit. They’re still giving their all. Sunday’s setback looked much better than last week’s disaster against the Cardinals. All positives, all fair to note.
But it’s also fair to wonder whether Mayo has done enough to earn a second year, even in a league where coaches almost always get more than one season. His in-game decisions — like the punt — cost his team. His podium sessions haven’t exactly drawn rave reviews. His team hasn’t been the end-of-season pain in the butt to play against that he envisioned, now a loser in five straight. The defense that’s supposed to be Mayo’s specialty has been a mess most of the season and benefited from a matchup against Josh Allen while he was dealing with what the Bills called a right elbow contusion.
At the same time, it’s wrong to say the Patriots should definitely move on from Mayo. Rather, it shouldn’t be assumed that Mayo has 100 percent earned a second year. The next two games will be telling.
That starts with how Mayo coaches during games. At this point, he has nothing to lose. His team stinks. The Patriots are underdogs in every game. Mayo had every reason to go for it on fourth down and still chose to punt. He needs to be more aggressive and take more chances. Give his team something to play for — and give the fans something to be excited about.
It also could come down to how the players perform for Mayo and his staff in the final two games. If their comments are to be believed, they’re still all in on Mayo.
“I think it’s some BS to be quite honest,” Maye said of the questions about Mayo’s job security. “Coach Mayo, we’ve got his back. … I’m proud to be a Patriot.”
“I love playing for Jerod,” tight end Hunter Henry said. “I love playing for AVP (offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt).”
Of course, this probably wouldn’t even be a discussion if Vrabel already had a job. It only remains an awkward topic because one of the top candidates on the market is a proven coach with a history and relationship with the team, while the hand-picked successor to Belichick is responsible for a season that isn’t clearing a very low bar.
Sunday, even if the result was a surprisingly competitive loss, was another reminder of all the mistakes this team makes when the chips are down. The pass to Rhamondre Stevenson that turned into a Bills touchdown. The nine plays it took inside the Buffalo 10-yard line to finally score on the last drive, one propped up by three defensive pass-interference penalties. The run defense. The fumbles. And of course, the punt. (Which, we should mention, should’ve been fourth-and-1, but the Pats took a delay of game penalty on third down.)
The Patriots roster should be better next year. They’re in line for the No. 2 pick in the draft, and their cap space is plentiful. But the question now becomes whether Mayo will be the one to lead that group.
It’s too early to say definitively. But at the very least, there are more questions about his future with the team after another loss.
(Photo: Mark Konezny / Imagn Images)
