Kirby Smart got the question on Monday: Given his Georgia team’s injuries and its solid College Football Playoff chances if it wins the next two games — against UMass and Georgia Tech — would it be beneficial to miss the SEC Championship Game?
“That’s a hypothetical,” Smart said. “Why would I put energy or time into trying to figure out what the best pathway is, including the SEC championship, when I’m worried about UMass? I just don’t think it’s a quality conversation.”
That’s his opinion, but it has been a discussion point since the format for the expanded Playoff was announced: Do teams want to avoid their conference championship games? Now it moves to the front burner as the SEC Championship Game looms in three weeks.
There is no doubt that winning the conference championship is the ideal scenario. Those teams get a first-round bye, almost certainly the first or second overall seed for the SEC. But losing the conference championship means ultimately having to play an extra game, and that’s if teams make the field. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey argued, perhaps optimistically, that the committee would see making the game as a “reward” rather than a penalty. But that’s far from certain, so teams understandably could prefer having a week off to rest and heal rather than have a non-guaranteed chance for a first-round bye.
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It isn’t much of a debate in other conferences: In the Group of 5 and now even the ACC and Big 12, it has become apparent those teams need to win their conference championship, or they’re probably out. In the Big Ten, it’s a little murkier: Oregon is the only team solidly in, while Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State could end up benefitting from missing their title game, but losing one more game in each of their cases could jeopardize their at-large spots.
The SEC is in a unique spot. There are six teams still in the running to make the SEC Championship Game, but only one needs to make it to have a chance at the Playoff. The others have varying degrees of pros and cons.
Here is a best-guess order of how much the contenders should want to make it to Atlanta:
1. Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1 SEC): This is pretty cut and dry. The Aggies aren’t making the field if they lose one of their final two regular-season games, which are at Auburn and home against Texas. The fascinating debate comes if they do win both but lose in the SEC championship: Would the Aggies have done enough at that point to still make it? But that’s the same debate for almost every team that loses in Atlanta.
2. Texas (9-1, 5-1): The selection committee has loved the Longhorns, placing them No. 3 in last week’s rankings, but how much will it love them if they lose at Texas A&M? The absence of any ranked wins — Vanderbilt is the best one right now — means the safest route for Texas is to win the next two — it hosts Kentucky this week — and leave no doubt. The SEC Championship Game would then be about getting a bye. But a loss in one of the next two games would cause a lot more focus on this team’s resume.
3. Tennessee (8-2, 5-2): Maybe the Volunteers are in if they win the next two (UTEP and at Vanderbilt). But that’s far from certain given the logjam of two-loss SEC teams. How far Josh Heupel’s team falls in this week’s rankings — it was No. 7 last week — will tell a lot. But so much is out of Tennessee’s control, especially making the SEC championship: Right now, it’s fifth among the six teams in conference schedule strength and would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Georgia, which is locked into two conference losses. Realistically, the Vols are just counting on an at-large bid at this point.
4. Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2): The Rebels have the worst loss of any contender, at home to Kentucky. They’re overcoming that right now — No. 11 in last week’s rankings, the last at-large team in the field — thanks to the wins over Georgia and South Carolina. The question is how much Lane Kiffin’s team rises by winning the next two, at Florida and home vs. Mississippi State. Does that make the Rebels safely in, and playing in Atlanta risks a third loss? Or does that Kentucky loss stick out enough that Ole Miss needs to go to Atlanta and leave no doubt?
5. Alabama (8-2, 4-2): The Crimson Tide were No. 10 in last week’s rankings, then routed Mercer, so winning their final two — at Oklahoma and then home against Auburn — should solidify an at-large spot. But Kalen DeBoer’s team is first in the schedule strength tiebreaker, so it has the best chance of the non-Texas teams to make it to Atlanta. Would there be a risk there? Perhaps, and maybe DeBoer would like the week off. But his team could also go win the SEC championship and just get a later bye.
6. Georgia (8-2, 6-2): It’s not that Smart and Georgia fans should actively root not to make it to Atlanta. The team that showed up against Tennessee, injuries and all, is good enough to beat whoever it plays in the SEC championship and get the next two weeks off. But the team is banged up enough in the short term that it really could be better off waiting to play until Dec. 21 or Dec. 22, rather than Dec. 7, when it would have fewer available players and could suffer more injuries.
The best guess: If you told Smart he was guaranteed to go to Atlanta and win, he’d take it. But if you told him it was a coin-flip game but that not making it would still mean a week off then a home game in the first round, he’d take that. Then again, that first-round home game isn’t a guarantee at this point.
There also is the somewhat plausible scenario: Georgia loses to Georgia Tech but backs into the SEC championship when enough teams lose — at minimum Alabama — and then absolutely the Bulldogs are glad they’re playing that extra game.
A final thought
The next few weeks will see more calls to do away with the conference championship games. People need to understand how unlikely that is to happen, especially in the SEC: The games make too much money for the conference and its television partner. And conferences need some mechanism to determine a champion, especially with bloated conferences where everyone doesn’t play each other, so better to do it on the field, as imperfect as it may be.
But if this does end up showing there’s too much of a penalty for playing — and losing — in the conference championship, the most likely fix is to the format. The SEC and Big Ten could push for some mechanism that ensures the conference runner-up makes the field. The committee could do away with automatic byes for all conference champions, so the runner-up doesn’t necessarily get penalized that way.
Those are questions for 2026 and beyond. As for this year, expect it to be a big topic during the next few weeks.
Nov 16, 2024; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart celebrates after a victory over the Tennessee Volunteers at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
