(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 11, 2024.)
4. The Bengals are now 1-10 with Joe Burrow when trailing by one score and taking over possession with 1-8 minutes left in regulation. Here’s what that does and does not mean, and what must change.
Quarterbacks play outsized roles in team success, especially in high-leverage moments late in games, so team results do begin to define the individual QB once the sample size grows large enough. I don’t think we are to that point with Burrow, even though his Tier 1 status does appear incongruent with that 1-10 record in those situations.
Reminder: Joe Burrow has 1 win in the NFL when trailing in the last 8:00.
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) November 8, 2024
The above post from NFL analyst Scott Kacsmar flagging Burrow’s poor record in these games invited a closer look.
Since entering the NFL in 2020, Burrow is one of 26 quarterbacks with at least 50 combined regular-season and postseason pass attempts in games when his team took possession with 1-8 minutes remaining and while trailing by 1-8 points. These quarterbacks have won 34.6 percent of the time, with 22 of them winning at a higher rate than Burrow. Tom Brady (6-5) and Patrick Mahomes (8-7) are the only two with winning records in these games since Burrow entered the league. But even the New York Giants’ Daniel Jones (4-9) has won more than Burrow, a big red flag.
When we examine statistical production for these 26 quarterbacks in these high-leverage situations, Burrow ranks first among them in EPA per pass play. He has completed 44 of 74 passes (60 percent) for 653 yards (8.8 per attempt) with six touchdowns, one interception and a 109.8 passer rating in these situations. Those numbers do not reflect a player struggling in these situations.
Against Baltimore on Thursday night, Burrow led two touchdown drives in the final 8:00 when his team needed a touchdown to tie or take the lead. The table below shows career touchdown drive rates for Burrow and three other acclaimed quarterbacks in these “need TD” situations: trailing by 4-8 points when taking over possession with 1-8 minutes left in regulation. Burrow’s touchdown drive rate before Thursday night was 43 percent, in line with the others. That jumped to 55 percent, best among the four, after the game against Baltimore.
| QB | Drives (TD) | TD Rate |
|---|---|---|
|
9 (5)
|
56%
|
|
|
11 (6)
|
55%
|
|
|
10 (4)
|
40%
|
|
|
10 (3)
|
30%
|
If Burrow and the Bengals’ offense were poor in these situations, that would show up in drive results.
The Bengals’ 35-34 defeat to Baltimore could offer a window into what might be broader team-oriented issues.
My overall impression of the Bengals on offense is that they pass too frequently, sacrificing game control in critical situations, and could do a better job of managing the clock. Having an offensive play-calling head coach carries advantages, but it can complicate a team’s efforts to keep sometimes competing priorities in balance.
Cincinnati’s overall pass orientation shows up in their high ranking on the Cook Index, which measures how frequently teams pass on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time remaining and score differential exert more influence on tendencies. The Bengals rank first this season and among the NFL’s top three since Burrow entered the league. They want to throw the ball. Bigger-picture decisions, such as deciding against keeping running back Joe Mixon, could influence and/or reflect this orientation.
As for game management, it’s a million times easier to lay out critiques on the internet than it is to execute under the pressure of time in actual game situations. I don’t pretend to be an expert in game-management intricacies, but in speaking with veteran coaches who reviewed the Thursday night game, some points stood out.
• The good: Cincinnati, anticipating a shootout, brought a four-down mentality. The Bengals went for it four times overall. That included three times when they were tied or leading, with two of those when more than a yard was needed for a first down. Those totals tied single-game highs since Zac Taylor became coach. Cincinnati also went for a two-point conversion in the final minute when an extra point would have tied the game. The Bengals were committed to an aggressive approach, which made sense.
• The questionable: Cincinnati left ample time for Jackson and Baltimore’s offense late in both halves when preferable options were available. In the second quarter, their quick timeout usage left Jackson with 0:30 on the clock, needing to travel about 30 yards to get a field-goal try. Their final drive took the clock from 1:49 to 0:42 before the Bengals scored a touchdown. Passing every down once the Bengals reached the Baltimore 12-yard line with 0:59 left allowed the Ravens to save timeouts.
“They have to force Baltimore to take a timeout (to compromise a potential Ravens rebuttal drive), or if they do not call timeout, they can control the two-point play being the last play of the game,” a coach said. “This is all easy with a remote in your hand and the luxury of time, but when you look at that game, you do think, ‘Great player in Joe Burrow, great player in Ja’Marr Chase, putting deodorant over a lot of that.'”
(Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
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