The Winnipeg Jets won eight games in a row to finish off last season and won eight more games in a row to start this season.
This obviously means everything in Jets land is perfect, right? Nothing of significance happened between those two streaks or on Monday night at Canada Life Centre? The truth is that, despite an 8-1-0 start, Winnipeg remains a work in progress with some fascinating strengths and more than one area of weakness.
This gives a little extra intrigue to your mailbag questions this week. From whether or not we should believe in the Jets’ hot start to Adam Lowry’s chances of making Team Canada to the Jets’ defensive situation, Ville Heinola’s status and Dylan Samberg’s next contract, here is part one of our first in-season Jets mailbag.
Note: Submitted questions may be edited for clarity and style.
The 2024-25 Jets are like a brand-new restaurant launching with a soft opening. Now I know you can only play teams in the order they appear on your schedule, but is it fair to say we might not know for sure how good these Jets really are until this run of games in November: Tampa Bay, Utah, Colorado, Dallas, New York Rangers, Tampa Bay and Florida twice? — Alexander H.
I am fully, completely, 1,000 percent treating this season as though I’ve been made foolish by past hot starts and won’t dare let myself get drawn in again.
There are reasons to believe Winnipeg is a good team — and a bit of a paper tiger — at 8-1-0. Winnipeg is doing an enormous amount of its damage on the power play, at six-on-five and in overtime. It might be surprising to know that the Jets have been outshot (233-222) and outscored (19-17) at five-on-five, while Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick each rank the Jets 29th in five-on-five expected goals percentage. This is not the dominant five-on-five team of yesteryear — at least not yet.
Winnipeg is off to an 8-1-0 start thanks to league-best goal scoring at six-on-five — and on the power play. That’s not a bad thing, given the team’s focus on special teams as an area of improvement. It is a troubling thing, when considering that even the best power plays run cold sometimes and that Winnipeg has a tough run of November games ahead.
To be clear, I believe the Jets have the pieces to be a good five-on-five team. I picked them to make the playoffs before the season started and nothing about their top-of-the-standings start to the season has changed my mind about that. I’m just hesitant to get carried away on these Jets’ playoff potential until they show a lengthy stretch of even strength excellence — the later in the season, the better.
They’ve scored the most six-on-five goals (5) and the most power-play goals (12) but are tied at 19th with 17 five-on-five goals. They’ve given up the 15th most goals at five-on-five, too, and that just doesn’t seem like the ideal formula for long-term success. Winnipeg will need to get better to consolidate its hot start. I believe it can do that. The easiest short-term fixes are improvement from the top line (outscored 9-2 at five-on-five despite brilliant special teams results) or the magical addition of a MacKenzie Weegar or Chris Tanev or Mattias Ekholm type of defenceman.
Once Ville Heinola is healthy what do you anticipate the Jets will do? Can’t keep nine defencemen. — Greg B.
Greg asked a question on a lot of your minds — and one that’s complicated, based on Ville Heinola’s injury history and Winnipeg’s history with respect to handling its defencemen. We all remember how Heinola made the team out of training camp last year but we also see the zero beside his NHL games played total in 2023-24.
I think Winnipeg’s play is simpler than it looks.
The Jets have five obvious regular defencemen. Logan Stanley seems to have emerged ahead of Haydn Fleury for the sixth job, although a pair of first-period penalties and continued awkward play against Toronto opens the door for Fleury to step back in. That leaves right-handed defenceman Dylan Coghlan the odd man out and the straightforward choice to expose to waivers if everyone is healthy when Heinola returns.
As for Heinola himself, I’m not expecting this to be another case of him returning from injury only to find that the Jets have no room for him. He’s lost his waivers exemption, for one, so the only AHL play for him is a conditioning assignment. Whether or not that takes place, Heinola will eventually be up to speed on a lineup with an obvious No. 6 job available. Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo will be the top pair. Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg will be the second pair, even after a difficult night against Toronto. After that, I think Winnipeg’s coaches look at Heinola-Miller as a completely viable third pair who can receive sheltered minutes and play behind a secondary scoring line. Heinola’s agility and passing should be a complement to Miller’s veteran savvy and rocket shot. Miller’s experience should offer some calm for Heinola, who will be working desperately to prove that he’s a better No. 6 than Winnipeg’s other options.
Even if he does that, Stanley will get into games. The organization values him.
It’s early, but Dylan Samberg seems to have adjusted to the top-four role with ease. Could you please shine a light on possible term and AAV that we could possibly expect next summer? — Adrien A.
This is a great question, Adrien. Samberg will turn 26 this July and has emerged as a viable top-four defenceman. He’s big, he’s strong, he blocks a ton of shots on the penalty kill and he’s a strong enough scanner of the ice to ensure he doesn’t get lost in coverage or get beat back door. He’s also prone to the occasional puck-handling wobble and, despite my belief that he’s succeeding as a top-four shutdown defenceman, Samberg is still new to the job and not a brand-name superstar in that role. His minus-5 stat line from Monday night reminds us that there will occasionally be long games as he takes the next big steps in his career.
So what will he make on his next contract?
It’s vital to note that Samberg will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights in 2025. His earliest UFA eligibility is 2026, meaning that all he has to do to guarantee himself UFA status on July 1, 2026, is file for arbitration next summer. This gives him some leverage, despite his RFA status.
I’ve used PuckPedia’s player tool to look for other defencemen like Samberg — 20 minutes per game, most of it at five-on-five and on pace for 27 points in an 82-game season — who have signed RFA contracts in recent seasons. Henri Jokiharju’s one-year, $3.1 million AAV contract would be troubling, given that Jokiharju will become an unrestricted free agent next summer. Jonas Siegenthaler’s five-year, $3.4 million AAV contract would probably give the Jets a lot more peace of mind, locking Samberg up until he’s 31.
To be clear, I’m new to using that tool and it’s only one lens to look through. Like you said, though, it’s early: I don’t mind allowing for some wide error bars as I guess at a contract in the $3 to $3.5 million AAV range.
Is there a chance that Adam Lowry would be considered for Canada as a checking/shutdown centre for the upcoming tournament? — Brent G.
I think there’s a great chance that Adam Lowry gets considered for a shutdown job. I know it’s fun — and often accurate — to assume people get overlooked because they’re in Winnipeg but the truth is that Lowry gets leaguewide respect. Lowry finished seventh in Selke Trophy voting last year, indicating a groundswell in leaguewide appreciation, and when out-of-market media discuss the Jets, Lowry’s two-way quality is one of the items they consistently get right.
Of course, the problem with any player’s case is that Canada is positively stacked at the center. Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid have all been the best in the world at one time or another. Brayden Point and Sam Reinhart have each scored 50 goals while providing strong two-way play. John Tavares is capable of the same and is off to a productive start, including his hat trick against the Jets.
Team Canada also has some of the world’s best two-way wingers at its disposal. Mark Stone is as good as it gets on that front and seems to be off to a healthy, productive start. Mitch Marner was a Selke Trophy finalist in 2023.
Still, let’s make Lowry’s case. He plays an extremely defined role for Winnipeg — one virtually identical to the one that would be asked of him for Team Canada. His tough minutes line outscores almost all of its opposition and has generated plenty of offence so far. Lowry has scored two goals and five assists (and he leads Winnipeg at plus-8, which I can’t help but think will catch eyes despite the flawed nature of plus/minus as a stat.) And Team Canada will need somebody to kill penalties: Lowry’s big role on that front puts him among Canadian leaders along with Marner, Reinhart, and other options like Anthony Cirelli, Jordan Staal, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Seth Jarvis and Tom Wilson.
Ultimately, I’m left with the opinion that Team Canada is too deep for Lowry to make but that I’d completely understand if it chose him anyway. They’d know what they were getting and what they were getting would be good.
Do you know if the Jets players (and/or staff) read your articles? — Kevin M.
I am aware of a number of Jets players and/or staff who read my articles. I appreciate that they do.
Hi Murat, You find so many interesting angles to write about. I often wonder, what is your writing background? I don’t recall seeing your byline prior to the Athletic. Who are major influences on your career? — Bill R.
One of my earlier childhood memories is when my Grade 3 teacher, Mrs. Klassen, read an excerpt from one of my stories out loud to the class. I felt so proud to have something I wrote highlighted and appreciated that way. In Grade 8, when Mr. Velie assigned a month-long writing project on any topic of our choosing, I made mine about hockey and wrote a 20-page story about junior players trying to make the NHL.
But you’re asking me about my byline prior to The Athletic. I don’t think you want to know about my exploits at Pinawa Secondary School or even Upper Canada College, where an influential classmate bragged about writing for “The Blue Page” for so long I couldn’t help but get involved myself.
Writing was a side project for most of my life. Childhood writing turned into teenage poetry and essays and university-aged blogging. During the 2004-05 lockout, I couldn’t find an outlet for my hockey fix and started commenting on the message boards at Hockey’s Future. That’s where I first discovered Allan Mitchell, who I knew as Lowetide and who now writes about the Edmonton Oilers here at The Athletic. He’s the gold standard by which I measure my attempts to build and support our community of people in the comment section. Through him, I found an anonymous analytics pioneer who wrote under the pseudonym “Vic Ferrari” — Elliotte Friedman wrote about him here — and convinced him to let me contribute to his website. James Mirtle was the first journalist (that I’m aware of anyway) to take an interest in analytics and would frequently chime in on Vic’s work. I was extremely fortunate that Mirtle was aware of my work when The Athletic first came to Winnipeg; longtime readers might remember Mirtle’s open call for Jets writers in September 2017. At the time, I was recovering from a concussion experienced in another industry entirely and could not have been more fortunate that Mirtle recognized my work from Vic’s old blog.
I have been the benefactor of what I refer to as “bull— luck” more than a few times in my life. I’ve only scratched the surface of it here, and should give credit to Pat McLean of the “Black Dog Hates Skunks” blog for his part in this story, too … But I’ve already written way too much about myself here. The answer to your question is that I have always written — I haven’t even mentioned the travel story books — and that I’m lucky Mirtle took a chance on me seven years ago.
(Photo: Sergei Belski / Imagn Images)
