Maybe this is just the usual Manchester City autumn slump. After all, the data shows that in October, November and December, Pep Guardiola’s side win roughly 66 per cent of their matches, compared to an average of 74 per cent across a season’s other months.
In November and December last year, they drew three league games in a row and then lost the next one, prompting the kind of end-of-an-era talk we are going through again now.
Guardiola says this time is different, though, but in the sense that it is — or should be — a temporary problem.
“In terms of results, it can be similar, the point is we don’t have the players,” the City manager said on Saturday after a 2-1 defeat at Brighton. “The four central defenders, all four are injured. And Rodri, the best player, is not there. Kevin (De Bruyne) is a way away from his best. (Jeremy) Doku is injured. Jack (Grealish) is injured. You can do it for one game, but to be consistent you cannot.”
The injury situation is stark and has to be considered the main cause of City’s current issues.
There have been other concerns, such as — according to sources who wish to remain anonymous to protect relationships — tension in the dressing room, including between Guardiola and some players. But that is not especially unusual at City (or most football clubs) and is something they have overcome several times to win titles, a process usually helped by winning lots of matches.
The priority, then, is simply getting players back fit. It is difficult to know exactly when that will start to change, but De Bruyne is already in action again following a seven-week lay-off and Kyle Walker, who has really struggled of late and according to Guardiola is not ready to play 90 minutes “at all”, is also on the path back to full fitness.
Ruben Dias has a calf injury that is not expected to keep him out for much longer, Manuel Akanji has been run into the ground by injuries elsewhere and pulled out of the Switzerland squad for this month’s internationals as a result, but is not expected to miss many more, if any, City games. John Stones’ complaint is not thought to be serious, but Nathan Ake has another hamstring injury after picking one up earlier in the season so could be on the sidelines for longer than the others.
Grealish’s scenario is no clearer after his withdrawal from the England squad (following his controversial inclusion in it), with Guardiola hinting on several occasions that there are non-injury issues to consider, while Doku has a thigh problem, having only just returned from a different injury.
Rodri, of course, is considered out for the rest of the season and that brings us to certain issues which will not be easy to fix even with a full squad. The Ballon d’Or-winning midfielder’s ACL rupture is potentially season-defining in itself, due to his importance to the side, and City had to adjust to life without him when it happened at the end of September.
But their injury problems really began to mount a month after that, around three weeks ago, when Doku and Grealish suddenly dropped out of contention following a last-minute away victory against Wolves. In the past fortnight, matters have been made worse with the defence stricken.
That means there was a period of five matches in September and October when City were ‘only’ really affected by the Rodri and De Bruyne absences, and while those players are obviously big losses to the team, the performances in those fixtures are quite instructive when it comes to determining how the champions might fare once their injured players return, because Rodri is not coming back this season regardless, and 33-year-old De Bruyne’s levels in what is the last season of his contract were already the subject of interest, and will continue to be.
It is fair to say that as long as the injury list continues to be this extensive, City are going to find life difficult; as much as they are playing well at times, they do miss chances and they do not seem to have the legs to keep up with teams on the break, and they will play Tottenham (who are also struggling but are built for counter-attacks) and visit Liverpool in the first two league games after this international break — two sides who are likely to poke at any weaknesses.
Those matches from the end of September until the end of October, then, give a better indication of how they are shaping up without Rodri, compared to several matches recently when they have been without half the squad.
To bring in parallels to other seasons, it is somewhat similar to 2022-23, when City were trying to adjust to life with Erling Haaland up front.
That may sound unusual given the records Haaland would break that season but City had to change the way they played — without being able to use a false nine as the ‘extra man’ in midfield. They were doing pretty well but had not looked as fluid as normal, and then the Qatar-hosted World Cup in the November and December, and its fallout, blew things up to the extent that Ilkay Gundogan talked about a lack of desire, Joao Cancelo was shipped out on loan to Bayern Munich, several players looked jaded and many were dismayed by the departure of a popular physio.
Once those problems were cleared up in the January, the process of properly integrating Haaland got back on track, although it was slow progress until Guardiola found his extra man in the shape of Stones, and City went on to win the treble.
What is happening now could be considered similar in the sense that City were piecing things together without Rodri about a month ago, but that project has been almost entirely thrown off track by their injuries elsewhere, a situation which should, in theory, soon be rectified.
The bad news is that in those immediate post-Rodri matches, with far more players available, City were pushed to their limits and still looked vulnerable.
Guardiola has revealed on several occasions since that he was not happy with his players’ effort levels in the 3-2 win against Fulham on October 5, when the London side ripped through City on the break and Adama Traore was presented with three clear-cut chances but couldn’t convert any of them. Other than that, though, Guardiola was pleased his side have shown their battling qualities in other victories that were not especially convincing, like that one at Molineux, and then the 1-0 against relegation favourites Southampton in late October after the injuries started to pile up and he was without six senior players.
In those matches, the broad approach was to fill the team with players capable of looking after the ball, the logic being that the more City had possession, the less defending they would have to do. The problem is that even some of those players, who were and continue to be fit, have not been as precise in their passing and have not looked suited to winning the ball back or chasing down counter-attacks. The result is that the defence is giving up nearly three Opta-defined ‘big chances’ per game — an unprecedented rate in Guardiola’s nine seasons at the club.
Gundogan has not yet found his best form since rejoining City this summer following a season with Barcelona, while Mateo Kovacic and Rico Lewis look brilliant in possession but are not always so accomplished out of it. Both are capable of winning duels and regaining possession but there have usually been a few instances per match where they have been caught out and, with a now 34-year-old Gundogan struggling, the midfield has at times looked a little lightweight, which is not helpful when they are stationed high up the pitch.
Phil Foden was only just returning to the side in that period and has done well in the past few games, although is not yet at the levels that saw him voted Player of the Year by his fellow Professional Footballers’ Association members last season. Then there are the wingers, who even at their best and fittest are not huge goal threats, and are inconsistent creators. Matheus Nunes has done well on the left of late but can also be added to that bracket.
Each game was different, of course, but if the performances could be described in one word it would probably be ‘fine’, which is, after all, a lot better than how the past few results could be described. It could be argued that the good spells during these recent defeats are a good reflection of what City will be like without their injuries.
If it can be assumed that the treatment room will start to empty at some point in the next month, is there anything that suggests City will look markedly better? For starters, they often do find an answer, whether they needed to find that extra man or, like last season, bulk up their defence and start taking their chances, which cost them nine points in November and December — which sounds familiar.
Foden has been coming back to something like his best form of late — something they did not have before the injuries piled up, so that should help.
And maybe Rodri’s absence need not be the end of City’s trophy hopes: they started the season without him because of a hamstring problem and they played their best football so far in those early weeks. That suggests that his knee injury is not a huge factor, but Guardiola has highlighted some issues with not having him.
“Maybe I have to reflect on the goals we concede,” he said after that Fulham game. “Normally it’s on transitions and set pieces, because without Rodri we lose this power, because he’s another guy who is so strong in this position.”
City obviously need to fill that gap and the big question of this season is how they do it. It may be they simply do not have that type of player in the current squad and will try to bring one in during the January transfer window.
Before they can think about that again, though, they have to heal some injuries and try to repair their defensive numbers.
(Top photo: Crystal Pix/MB Media/Getty Images)
