Entering the season, the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins were all seen by my NFL Projection Model as AFC contenders with at least a 60% chance of making the playoffs.
Obviously, things haven’t gone as planned for any of these teams. The Jets and Dolphins are 2-3, while the Bengals have the same record as the lowly New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4).
So are they all dead in the water? Not exactly. Given how lackluster the AFC has been overall this season, I’d still project at least one of these teams to make the playoffs. But choosing which one is a much tougher question. Fortunately, my model is up to the challenge. Here is how it sees things stacking up for the Jets, Bengals and Dolphins:
New York Jets
Current playoff odds: 52%
The model still likes the Jets despite the turmoil that followed their loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in London. For those living under a rock, the Jets fired their coach, Robert Saleh, just five games into the season. Firing a coach so early is not typically a sign of a team that’s headed to the playoffs, but there are reasons to think they could still get there.
The top reason is the Jets still have one of the best defenses in the league. They also play in a division that doesn’t have an elite team (sorry, Buffalo). So, while I’m not sure if quarterback Aaron Rodgers will ever regain his old form off his Achilles injury, he’s probably good enough to win some games on the back of that defense.
Still, I’ll admit the Rodgers question scares me. Among qualified quarterbacks, he ranks 27th in EPA/dropback and 21st in dropback success rate, according to TruMedia. The most concerning thing about the Jets’ passing offense at the moment is that Rodgers ranks 28th in EPA/dropback when facing no pressure. The only quarterbacks worse in that category this year are Will Levis, Deshaun Watson, Gardner Minshew, Bo Nix and Bryce Young. If you can’t move the ball efficiently with clean pockets, well, that’s not a great sign.
Making matters worse, the run offense has stalled out, too. The Jets rank in the bottom five in the league in EPA per rush attempt and in the bottom 10 in rushing success rate.
That all being said, I do expect things to get better as Rodgers gains more continuity with his teammates. And maybe he’ll get to play with an old one soon. Regardless, if Rodgers improves his play in clean pockets, that should help open up the running game a little, and the Jets offense can be an average-ish unit.
One final reason for optimism: The Jets face the fourth-easiest schedule, per my projections. They only play fives games against teams that currently have a winning record, and two of those games are in the next two weeks.
Betting breakout
Jets to make the playoffs (+110): I think the Jets are a good bet to make the playoffs at anything plus-money. And amid all of the chaos, this feels like a perfect buy-low spot on a team that still has an elite defense and an offense with upside. And if superstar wide receiver Davante Adams is wearing green within the next week or two, even better.
Miami Dolphins
Current playoff odds: 40%
Let’s start here: My projections expect QB Tua Tagovailoa to be back under center by Week 8. Maybe that’ll prove to be optimistic, but that’s what I’m projecting now based on reports out there about his health.
And that’s a huge factor here, because the current Dolphins are nowhere close to a playoff team. But a Dolphins team with Tagovailoa at the helm might be.
Tagovailoa knows how to run Mike McDaniel’s offense and how to utilize receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. There’s plenty of upside with this team. We’ve seen it before. The Dolphins have tons of speed, but they need the right quarterback to orchestrate it all. The results without Tagovailoa have not been pretty over the past few years.
| Dolphins w/ Tua | Dolphins w/out Tua | |
|---|---|---|
|
Record
|
20-12
|
2-5
|
|
Points/game
|
26.8
|
13.6
|
|
Passing yards/game
|
270.5
|
253.3
|
|
TD/INT
|
56-25
|
5-8
|
|
Passer rating
|
101.5
|
72.1
|
I’ll be honest: I don’t have a ton of confidence in my Dolphins projections because of the uncertainty with Tagovailoa. It is worth mentioning, though, that the Dolphins got a huge boost in playoff odds by rallying to beat the Patriots on Sunday. Their odds entering Week 5 were 28%, but they jumped to 40% after the win (and with some other key AFC teams losing). For now, they rank ahead of the Bengals because they have one more win in the bank and could get their difference-making QB back in a few weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals
Current playoff odds: 33%
Out of these three teams, the Bengals are actually rated as the best overall team, per my projections. The problem is they’re 1-4 despite already playing the Patriots and Carolina Panthers (their one win) and blowing fourth-quarter leads against the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. When you’re 1-4, it doesn’t matter how good you are; your playoff odds are going to take a significant hit.
The Bengals are the opposite of the Jets, as their offense is not anywhere near the problem. It’s the defense, which ranks 30th in EPA per play and 31st in defensive success rate. My projections view the Cincinnati defense as the second-worst in the NFL, and it just lost starting defensive back Dax Hill to an ACL injury. I don’t see how things get much better for the Bengals on that side of the ball.
If there is any silver lining, it’s that they get to place some average-ish (or below) offenses in the New York Giants, Cleveland Browns (x2), Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers (x2), Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos the rest of the way. That’s a lot of games against offenses that don’t exactly make you shake in your boots.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow and this offense should be electric as long as they stay healthy. They rank as the NFL’s second-best offense (per my projections), but when you’re constantly needing to score 30-plus points to win football games, your margin for error is probably going to be too small to overcome.
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(Photos of Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers: Jamie Squire and Al Bello / Getty Images)
