There’s no more hiding for the Buffalo Bills as an under-the-radar team in the 2024 season. Following a 30-20 road victory over the Colts, the Bills are on a five-game winning streak, having scored at least 30 points in each of their last four outings.
Quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills did everything in their power to take over the Colts game in the second half, and in doing so, set up a massive showdown in Week 11 with the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. But how did the Bills shake off a sluggish start to bring their record to 8-2?
Here are several observations from the Bills’ victory in Indianapolis.
Josh Allen, despite the INTs, delivered some brilliant moments
There’s rarely a perfect showing, even for the best NFL players. And while Josh Allen has been terrifically efficient this season as a passer, he saw his first multi-interception game of 2024. On the surface, one of the two interceptions looked like a horrible throw that fell well short of the intended target, but the replays clearly showed Allen’s shoulder was hit during his throwing motion, which likely threw off the trajectory of the pass. Those types of things happen from time to time in the NFL, and he’s been pretty fortunate that it hasn’t happened more often this season.
The second interception was a great play by the defender, but more on Allen than the other play. At the same time, Allen didn’t have his usual passing touchdown to even out his stat line. Regardless of that, Allen brought some heroic moments to the forefront, which put the Bills in a great position to put points on the board. He was just a little more subtle as a passer this week.
Allen had to turn back the clock a bit as a runner against the Colts, with two runs that were keys to the Bills putting them away Sunday. Allen’s 21-yard scramble on a second-and-19 play was an ode to the player he was earlier in his career. That run helped slam the door in the Colts’ faces, as the Bills marched the ball down and took a 30-13 lead. It was his longest run of the season.
As a passer, Allen had some similarly heroic moments. On a busted play, where he was just trying to make things happen at the end of a half, his touch pass to Mack Hollins on a third-and-10 that went for 44 yards is not a throw many quarterbacks can make. Coincidentally, a pair of throws to Hollins to defeat the weak spot of the Colts’ Cover-2 were also especially impressive. One of which came on a second-and-16, in which Allen gained all 16 back in one play with his throw. So, although Allen wasn’t a fantasy football darling in this matchup, he was impactful and effective and kept the Bills on time despite being without three of his top four pass catchers against a well-coached Colts defense.
What a play!
📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/vdWPzZRk6Q
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 10, 2024
How the Dalton Kincaid injury made the Bills go back to basics
The Bills entered the game knowing that they’d likely need to get creative with their personnel groupings. Down both Amari Cooper and rookie Keon Coleman at wide receiver, the Bills signed Jalen Virgil off their practice squad and elevated Tyrell Shavers to have their usual five. But neither Virgil nor Shavers played more than a handful of snaps in the early stages. The Bills instead worked in a solid amount of 12 personnel with tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. It was shaping up to be a heavy Kincaid day. He was on the field for 17 of the offense’s first 22 snaps, and the second-year tight end was targeted three times in the first quarter alone. Once Kincaid suffered a knee injury, and after he exited the game following a brief return, the Bills turned back the clock to how the offense used to be before Kincaid was drafted.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the Bills offense operated almost exclusively out of 11 personnel down the stretch of the game. Not only did they use that three-receiver set, but they also used the same three receivers every single play. It was the same each time, with Hollins, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. Dawson Knox was usually the tight end unless he needed a breather, in which case Quintin Morris would spell him for a snap.
Those levels of 11 personnel and defined roles haven’t been prevalent since Brian Daboll left to become the head coach of the New York Giants. However, on Sunday, that 11 personnel usage was highly successful, too, averaging over seven yards per play after Kincaid exited the contest. If the Bills are without the trio of Cooper, Coleman and Kincaid next weekend against the Chiefs, it would not be ideal for their full-game outlook, but it would be fair to expect a similar type of usage of Hollins, Samuel, Shakir and Knox.
Run defense had lapses, but there are reasons for optimism
The last we left the Bills’ run defense, Dolphins running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert were outstanding, and although they failed to break a big run, there were a lot of medium-plus gains that showed the Bills had some work to do in the week ahead of the Colts game. As it was a clear problem on film, the Bills talked about block-shedding all week and even devoted a portion of their practice Thursday to doing a fundamentals drill with every defensive player on the roster to address the issue.
Unfortunately for the Bills, some of those key issues popped up for three long rushing attempts by the super-talented Jonathan Taylor. Taylor busted loose for a 58-yard rush on an outside run that led to a Colts field goal. On their next two drives, Taylor had a 13-yard run to help set up the Colts on their first-half touchdown drive. Then after that, his 22-yard run to start a drive helped the Colts get a field goal and a 13-10 lead. Those three big plays accounted for 93 total yards while featuring players who couldn’t get off blocks, poor angles taken and some bad tackling.
However, there’s some good news for the run defense and it likely will be what the Bills try to isolate before the Chiefs game next weekend. On the other 18 Taylor rushing attempts, he gained only 21 yards for an outstanding average of 1.2 yards per rush. Taylor didn’t have a rush longer than four yards on those 18 attempts, and that 4-yard gain happened only once. Most impressively, the Bills stopped Taylor for either zero yards or a loss on seven different rushing attempts. Those numbers are closer to what we saw from the Bills defense in Seattle than what happened against the Dolphins in Week 9. And while it would be foolish to give the Bills defense full credit while still allowing three plays that averaged 31 yards per rush, they are certainly getting closer to the run defense they want to be.
How did the Bills use the new defensive tackles?
Following a showing against the Dolphins that allowed far too much room to roam for the opponent’s running backs, the Bills sprung into action this week to try and put a bandage on the ailing defensive tackle group. The team added Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson — two players who have familiarity with the Bills’ defensive scheme — and both were active on Sunday. There was a chance it could be the start of a tryout for both players, but instead what we saw were some very defined roles for Phillips and Jefferson that mirrored what the Bills lost with injured rookie defensive tackle DeWayne Carter and defensive end Dawuane Smoot.
In the absence of Carter over the last two weeks, the Bills have attempted to use the duo of Austin Johnson and Eli Ankou in more of a versatile role, while both are likely at their best in the one-technique role. It has led to some struggles, specifically from Johnson. So this week, they tried something different by bringing back Phillips to simplify things and have some clearly defined roles. Phillips lined up almost exclusively next to Johnson throughout the game as the preferred three-technique, with Johnson being able to play more one-technique. Phillips even worked into the game with DaQuan Jones, their starting one technique. Jefferson, however, did not factor into that role at all. That meant Phillips was the one-for-one replacement for Carter.
So, what did Jefferson do? He handled one very specific piece of Smoot’s role. While Smoot would get several reps at defensive end through the game, on obvious passing downs, Smoot would reduce inside to defensive tackle and line up next to Ed Oliver to help rush the passer. That role became exclusively Jefferson’s on Sunday against the Colts. Every single one of his snaps came on pass rush specific scenarios. So, unless those roles change while Carter and Smoot are unavailable, their hold on a roster spot upon those players returning may be tenuous at best. They’d both likely need some injuries or to play so well that it forces the Bills’ hand to shed a roster spot elsewhere.
Bills MVP: NCB Taron Johnson — His interception for a touchdown set the tone for the defense to be a turnover machine, especially after the Bills’ four-play first possession that ended in a punt. Johnson continues to prove why he’s an impact player on the Bills roster.
Bills LVP: Explosive runs — The Bills seemed to solve their inconsistency problem but allowed three plays to get away from them. However, there will be no room for those errors next week. Honorable mention goes to return specialist Brandon Codrington for the fumble and near turnover.
Up next: The 8-2 Bills, No. 2 in the AFC, will head home to take on the 9-0 Chiefs, No. 1 in the AFC, on Sunday in a game I’m sure barely anyone will write and talk about throughout the week.
(Top photo: Grace Hollars / Imagn Images)
