Kirby Smart vs. the College Football Playoff committee and the statistics that matter most

We’re pleased to return to America’s newest feud: Kirby Smart vs. the College Football Playoff committee. The latest iteration came when the selection committee placed Smart’s Georgia team at No. 11 in its latest rankings, and chairman Warde Manuel said the disparity in schedules makes it “difficult to assess” strength of schedule.

“We have to rely on how the teams are playing and who they’re playing as well as how the other teams, regardless of strength of schedule, are playing their opponents,” Manuel said. “We take a look at it holistically. Strength of schedule is a component. It’s an important data point to us and for us. But it is not the only assessment that we make.”

Manuel pointed to Texas, ranked No. 3 despite zero wins over ranked teams, having a top-five defense. That got the attention of Smart, who spoke out again on Wednesday.

“It just seems unjust to me when you evaluate, somebody’s got a third-ranked defense or somebody’s got a fifth-ranked defense,” Smart said. “Well, don’t you think that third- or fifth-ranked defense is dictated by who they’ve played on offense and how many top offenses they’ve played? Because last time I checked, our offense and our defense have played the top offenses and defenses across the country.”

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The top offenses and defense? Not exactly. But many of them? Yes:

• Georgia’s offense, which ranks 41st nationally in yards per play, has faced three of the nation’s top six defenses (Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee) and five of the top 13 (Auburn and Alabama).

• Georgia’s defense, which ranks 21st nationally, has faced three of the top 14 offenses (Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn), as well as Texas (26th), Florida (36th), Clemson (38th) and Tennessee (46th).

• As for that Texas defense that Manuel cited, it does rank first nationally, but it has faced one top-20 offense, Arkansas (19th) and two others in the top 50: Florida (36th), and Georgia (41st).

But ultimately this may not come down to Georgia vs. Texas, rather which of the six SEC teams currently in contention — seven if you want to include South Carolina — are Playoff-worthy. This year, we’ve been tracking two stats that are key indicators: yards-per-play differential and explosive-play differential. Let’s update each and go deeper on schedule strength.

Yards-per-play margin

This is a rather simple measure: Take each team’s offensive and defensive yards per play, and the higher the former than the latter, then the better the team is doing. In years past, the Playoff-worthy teams tended to be at +2.00 or higher, although that was before the most recent conference moves.

Here is the breakdown, first for all games and then just power-conference opponents:

Explosive play margin

Explosive plays are defined differently by different people, but TruMedia Sports, which compiled these numbers, defines them as pass plays of 16-plus yards and rushes of 12-plus yards. These have been shown to be indicative of who wins individual games: Whoever has more in a game usually wins.

Throughout a season it is also an indicator: Whereas the yards-per-play stat shows consistency and more of an overall picture, the ability to make and stop explosives matters in today’s more high-octane game.

Here is the plus-minus for each team — total explosive plays, not per game — first in overall games:

And this is the explosive play margin — per game, unlike the above total — for just power conference games:

Texas again looks good in this metric, but Arkansas and its 5-5 record crash the party. So does Auburn (4-6), which also does well in the yards-per-play margin, while Vanderbilt (6-4) is near the bottom in both metrics. So what gives?

Turnover margin is one easy answer: Auburn is tied for the worst turnover margin in the SEC, while Vanderbilt is tied for the fourth-best margin. Some of it may also be the Commodores are just overachieving because of a good quarterback who makes big plays, while Auburn, well, is not.

There are many explanations and metrics. But let’s finish up with Smart’s favorite one, at least right now:

Schedule strength

The selection committee uses SportSource Analytics, but that data isn’t public. There are publicly-available schedule strengths, including ESPN’s, which has Georgia at No. 1 and every SEC team in the top 38 — with Texas being that last one in at No. 38.

But let’s try something a little different and quantify the schedule strength by offense and defense. To do that, we go through the average yards per play for every opponent’s offense and defense, and (since it took a while) isolated it to the seven Playoff contenders.

First, to measure the schedule strength of each team’s offense, here is the average yards-per-play rank of their opponents’ defenses, including all FBS opponents:

Now, to measure the schedule strength of each team’s defense, here is the average yards-per-play rank of their opponents’ offenses, again including all FBS opponents:

Well, maybe that helps excuse some of Oklahoma’s offensive issues. And it’s hard not to notice the opposition that Texas and Ole Miss, which dominate the yards-per-play metric.

As for Georgia, yes it has had the second-hardest road in the SEC on both offense and defense. That’s something for Smart to cite in his next remarks against the selection committee.

(Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)