It appears college football’s Selection Sunday could be a lot less suspenseful than college basketball’s. The committee basically announced their decisions on the final bubble teams Tuesday night. Playoff committee chairman Warde Manuel even declared that the committee will not be making any further evaluations of teams that are done playing, so … sorry Miami! Hope you like Pop-Tarts.
Las Vegas strongly shifted the odds of Playoff selection away from Miami and toward Alabama on Tuesday morning. Should the committee members be investigated for feloniously tampering with betting? — Bdhatch
If so, that should be an easy case for them to crack. Check for geotagging data for any bets placed from the Gaylord Texan Resort, specifically the queso bar in the banquet room next to the hotel meeting space.
In all seriousness: No. I think bettors were just smart enough to follow the golden rule of CFP selections: It’s ‘Bama, stupid!
If the current rankings hold up, this will be the fifth time, dating back to the BCS, that the Tide wound up in a last-one-in situation; only once, in 2022, were they left out. They’re like a walking poster for how arbitrarily the committee shifts its rationale from week to week, season to season. Case in point:
In 2017, an 11-1 Alabama team with wins against No. 17 LSU and No. 23 Mississippi State got the last Playoff berth instead of 11-2 Big Ten champion Ohio State. That year, Alabama did not make its conference title game. The Buckeyes had wins over two top-10 teams and a third ranked No. 16, while the Tide’s best win was over No. 17 LSU. We were told that Ohio State’s second loss, a 55-24 clunker at Iowa, was the difference-maker.
The lesson: Don’t suffer bad losses.
Fast forward seven years to Alabama vs. Miami. This time the Crimson Tide have the extra loss, and it’s a doozy: 24-3 at 6-6 Oklahoma. Whereas Miami’s two losses were close ones at 9-3 Syracuse and 7-5 Georgia Tech. But now, we’re told, it’s OK to have the worse record if you have the better wins.
The lesson: It’s ‘Bama, stupid!
Personally, I don’t believe there’s a right or wrong answer here. When you get down to the last few teams, you’re not going to be able to avoid flawed resumes. It’s so very on-brand, though, that the committee did not apply this reasoning nearly anywhere else in its top 12.
Its No. 2 team, 11-1 Texas, has no Top 25 wins now that Texas A&M fell out, while its No. 5 team, 10-2 Georgia, has three — one of which is Texas. Its No. 3 team, 11-1 Penn State, has fewer Top 25 wins than its No. 6 team, 10-2 Ohio State, which beat the Nittany Lions on their home field. And its No. 9 team, 11-1 Indiana, arguably has a thinner resume than No. 12 Miami. In all three cases, they ordered the teams primarily by number of losses.
But then, when it came to the last spot, they suddenly remembered it’s supposed to matter who a team beats.
Just in time for Alabama.
If Ohio State wins the national championship, will its fan base forgive Ryan Day for four straight losses to Michigan? — Craig B., Charlotte, N.C.
As an Ohio State, fan where do they go from here? — Jeff H.
Ohio State fans may never forgive coach Ryan Day for four consecutive losses to Michigan, but the narrative around him changes dramatically if the Buckeyes win the national title. With Mack Brown out at North Carolina, we are down to just two active national championship coaches in college football, Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney. Now imagine if Day becomes the third. If Ohio State fans still don’t want him, a whole lot of other folks will.
But let’s be real: The Buckeyes are not going to win the national championship. But Stewart, they’ve got so much talent, blah, blah, blah. Yes, they do, but talent alone does not win championships. Their offensive line has been decimated by injuries. Their quarterback, Will Howard, is having a great season statistically, but in the Buckeyes’ two biggest games, at Oregon and against Michigan, he melted down at the worst possible times.
Most of all, this team often plays like it has the weight of the world on its shoulders. You could see it as soon as a few things started to go against them on Saturday. And that starts with the head coach, who himself looks and talks like someone constantly in the throes of an existential crisis.
I don’t envy Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork. I’m sure he does not want to fire a 66-10 coach with a $38 million buyout. And it won’t even be a feasible option if the Buckeyes advance through the Playoff . No one wants to make a coaching change in the middle of January.
But man, if the Buckeyes lose a first-round game on Dec. 20/21 to, say, SMU? The $20 million team finishes 10-3 with two brutal losses? At that point Bjork might not be able to afford to keep him. How do you go back to your donors and say we need you to pony up again for the portal if the donors have zero confidence in the coach?
I’ll stand by what I wrote Sunday. If Day is as miserable as he seems, he should make his own exit plan. I realize that’s easy for me to say when I’m not the one who’d be giving up millions, but he’s the one who’s said how excruciating the situation has been for his family. In an ideal world, an NFL team comes in and makes him their offensive coordinator. Because his sweet spot at Ohio State came when he was coaching and calling plays for three straight NFL quarterbacks.
The first regular season with a 12-team playoff is almost in the books. What did you think? Are we better off? — Noah B.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but I don’t think there’s any question. I can’t ever remember a season where such a wide variety of schools were playing in nationally relevant games – everyone from Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama and Texas to Iowa State, Indiana, SMU and Tulane.
Case in point: This Friday, I’m heading to the The Blue to see Boise State and UNLV play a historic winner-take-all showdown a trip to the Playoff. This exact game a year ago would have been for a trip to a New Year’s Six bowl, and I can’t honestly tell you I would have watched it start to finish on my TV.
More meaningful late-season college football feels like a win to me. Others may disagree.
I find it fascinating that all four power conferences could be won by teams that are in their first year in those conferences. What does it say about the perception of conference superiority that all four of those teams (SMU, Arizona State, Oregon, Texas) were in “inferior” conferences just one year ago? Could it be this sport is a lot less top heavy than the Big Ten and SEC would have us believe? — Tim, a Georgia fan in Alabama
It’s an interesting coincidence, but I wouldn’t group all four together like that. For one thing, Arizona State and Oregon were not in an inferior conference last year. The 2023 Pac-12 had first-round QBs Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix and Caleb Williams, plus soon-to-be first-round QBs Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders in it. And Oregon faced all of them. The Ducks seem to be having an easier time fending off Luke Altmeyer, Davis Warren and Braedyn Locke.
But Oregon and Texas were already elite teams that would have contended immediately in any conference. No one saw Arizona State coming. The Sun Devils’ surge from 3-9 to 10-2 may have happened no matter the conference, but it helps that they joined a Big 12 with no Texas or Oklahoma in it. Last year’s team lost 55-3 to Utah, 49-13 to Oregon and 59-23 to Arizona. ASU was awful, but it also had the misfortune of playing more high-end teams in its conference than it’s had to this year.
SMU is the truly revealing one. The Mustangs moved from a Group of 5 league to a Power 4 conference with less than a year to prepare and in its very first season went 8-0 in the league. That’s unheard of. Mind you, SMU was an 11-win team last season that won its conference championship, but it’s not like Rhett Lashlee’s program was an established power. Prior to 2023, the school had not had a ranked season since 1984.
I do not say this to disrespect SMU, which earned this moment, but it does not speak well for the other 16* schools in the ACC that a Group of 5 team came in and immediately surpassed them. (*Clemson pending.)
I look at Boise State’s schedule and don’t understand why the forgone conclusion is that they get the bye ahead of the Big 12 champion. I recognize the close loss to Oregon. I also see one ranked opponent (UNLV) and four-point win at Wyoming, while BYU beat Wyoming by 20 and ASU beat it by 41. I don’t like the precedent set that easy strength of schedules get rewarded. — Jett M.
I think we can agree Boise State is not your typical Group of 5 team. The Broncos may have the best player in the country in Ashton Jeanty, and their only loss was to the No. 1 team in the country by three points. But this committee has been the kindest by far to Group of 5 teams in the 11-year history of the CFP.
Putting in perspective how high 11-1 Boise is at No. 10: UCF’s first undefeated team in 2017 was never ranked higher than No. 12. There have only been two previous seasons in which the highest Group of 5 champion finished with one loss — Houston in 2015 and Memphis in 2019. Those teams peaked at No. 18 and No. 17, respectively. This year’s Tulane team got to No. 17, even with two losses.
Not coincidentally, this year’s committee has also put the least emphasis on strength of schedule — except, of course, in this one specific instance when Alabama’s CFP fate hangs in the balance.
Arizona State and Iowa State don’t have great schedule strength metrics, either, but they’re better than Boise State’s. Yet the Broncos remain five spots higher than the Sun Devils and six higher than the Cyclones. It seems to me the committee does not love that ASU lost to a 5-7 Cincinnati team (without Sam Leavitt, mind you) and Iowa State to a 5-7 Kansas team.
Apparently, losing 24-3 to a 6-6 team is not a deal-breaker, but losing by single digits to a 5-7 team is a bridge too far.
By the time you retire (which, for us readers, is hopefully not for a long time), the CFP will include what number of teams? — Jeremy K.
That depends. Is Alabama going to keep going 9-3 or start slipping to 6-6? If the latter, then 48.
Can you explain why coaches who score late in games or, especially, on the second possession of the first overtime, kick the extra point instead of going for two? Instead of running one play for 3 yards, you choose to play multiple offensive and defensive plays and hope it comes out in your favor? Georgia-Georgia Tech is the latest example. Eight overtimes may be exciting but it should’ve never gone beyond one. — Joel, Ponca City, OK
I don’t fault anyone kicking the extra point at the end of regulation. You’re putting an insane amount of self-inflicted pressure on one play succeeding before you actually need to.
The end of first overtime one is more interesting, though. You’re going to have to go for two anyway on the very next possession, so why not just do it now and your defense never has to step back on the field?
I already considered the 2-point derby format incredibly dumb, but during that game in particular, it also struck me as unfair to a team like Tech, which runs the ball a lot. Tech’s whole approach is predicated on stringing together long drives that wear down the opponent, which becomes moot in a one-play scenario. Credit to the Jackets’ defense for keeping them in it as long as they did, but I knew they were in trouble when they kept attempting passes on their first several 2-point conversion attempts.
Stewart, presume for a moment Penn State defeats Oregon on Saturday night, and is seeded No. 1 in the CFP the next morning. Is Penn State beholden to go to the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champion, or could they opt to reduce their travel costs (and their fans’ as well) and play in the Peach Bowl instead on New Year’s? — Gus from Safety Harbor, Florida
It’s not the schools’ choice. The Rose, Sugar, and Orange Bowls still have two years left on their contracts with their partner conferences and the committee intends to honor them whenever possible. (The Orange is a semifinal this year.) Once those are filled, they’ll assign the remaining teams based on geography — hence, in my bracket, why No. 3 seed SMU gets the Peach Bowl and No. 4 seed Boise the Fiesta Bowl.
Note: It has not yet been decided whether that format will continue with the in 2026 when the next CFP contract kicks in. I suspect it won’t due to fan travel concerns.
Why hasn’t Syracuse been talked about this season until now? The Orange always had a winning record and did a great job recruiting. I honestly think Kyle McCord looks like a legitimate mid-round NFL Draft pick or higher. What do you think? — Ken P, San Francisco CA
Syracuse definitely snuck up on people, and I think it’s pretty simple why. Like most of the ACC and Big 12 now, its games get buried on television. The Orange played no games on ABC, three on ESPN, one on FS1, five on ACC Network and three on The CW. And unfortunately for them, two of the three ESPN games were an early-season Friday night loss to Stanford, which finished 3-9, and the Thursday night debacle against Pitt on Oct. 24, when McCord threw five interceptions and they lost 41-13. (Weirdly, that was also Pitt’s last win.)
McCord was solid outside of that one horrific night. But here’s a dirty little secret: He was pretty good at Ohio State last year, too. In fact, he was more efficient in 2023 (161.6 passer rating, 9.1 yards per attempt) than in 2024 (143.7 rating, 7.8 YPA). He just passes a lot more in Syracuse’s offense (558 attempts, 4,326 yards) than he did in the Buckeyes’ offense (348 attempts, 3,170 yards).
With the benefit of hindsight, McCord was maybe, possibly being held to an impossible standard, given he came right after C.J. Stroud, Heisman finalist and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. But I’m glad he’s found success at his new home. Looking forward to watching him and ‘Cuse in their bowl game, which will almost certainly air on a widely available television network.
Many are talking about how a team shouldn’t be punished by the committee for playing (and possibly losing) a 13th game. And I agree. But this is exactly what happened two years ago to USC when Ohio State jumped them while being idle. So, couldn’t it be argued that SMU needs to win this weekend (or at least not get blown out like 2022 USC did), otherwise they could almost expect to be knocked out? — Karl T., Minneapolis
When I woke up Tuesday morning, my answer to this would have been: USC was in a four-team field. This is 12. I can’t see the committee kicking SMU out of the field entirely for playing and losing an extra game.
My answer now, after the rankings: It’s ‘Bama, stupid.
(Photo: Jason Clark / Getty Images)
