The New York Mets bet on surrounding Luis Severino with familiarity and won. He knew Mets manager Carlos Mendoza and bullpen coach Jose Rosado from their time together with the New York Yankees. Also, Severino loved playing in New York. So he thought familiarity would help, too. Believing the ingredients existed for a bounce back, both parties agreed to a one-year deal last offseason. It worked out better than anyone could have reasonably expected.
Severino stayed healthy and productive. By delivering a solid season (3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and reaching his highest innings total (182) since 2018, Severino might have positioned himself for a solid multiyear deal, something teams weren’t offering him last winter. The Mets could present him with a qualifying offer. He will turn 31 in February.
Need in 2025 and beyond
The Mets should be in the market for multiple starters this offseason, to put alongside Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and the recovering Paul Blackburn in their rotation mix. There’s some promise in the next wave of starters for New York, but none of those pitchers figures to be ready for the Opening Day rotation.
The market
Severino is right on the borderline between the second and third tiers of starting pitchers — probably a bit behind Sean Manaea but above Jose Quintana. Andrew Heaney, Frankie Montas and Nick Pivetta look to be his closest comps, but Severino has a good chance to earn the best and longest deal of that bunch.
Other teams that might be interested
Re-establishing himself as a healthy performer who still has a chance to improve further should make Severino broadly appealing this winter. He fits a win-now rotation, like in Baltimore and San Diego, and he also fits a rotation looking to add some certainty, like in Washington, Cincinnati and Anaheim.
Projected salary
Most pitchers in Severino’s tier end up signing for two or three years. He’s young enough that four years isn’t out of the question. Still, he fits pretty well alongside 2023 Nathan Eovaldi (two years, $34 million), 2018 Alex Cobb (four years, $57 million) and 2015 Francisco Liriano (three years, $39 million). Those triangulate to around $17 million per season in today’s money, so let’s peg Severino at three years and $51 million.
What should be the Mets’ level of interest?
This depends on whether the Mets view Severino as a step above other returning starters like Peterson and Blackburn. New York has a good group of back-end starters, and it might be wiser to push more resources toward adding to the front end of its rotation. As a mid-rotation starter, Severino could get caught between.
A complicating factor: Severino is likely to receive a qualifying offer, and should the Mets extend one, he might like sticking in New York City enough to accept it.
After 13 major-league seasons, teams can still count on Quintana to log innings and perform adequately in the middle or back end of a rotation. Experience helped Quintana make adjustments and rebound from a brutal stretch during the first half of the season. Over his final 18 starts, a span beginning June 15, Quintana produced an impressive 2.77 ERA.
Quintana, who turns 36 in January, wants to keep pitching. Advanced numbers continue to dislike him because instead of overpowering batters and racking up strikeouts, Quintana pitches to the edges of the strike zone, looking for chase or soft contact. Last year marked the ninth time in his career that Quintana eclipsed 165 innings. Over 31 starts and 170 1/3 innings, Quintana had a 3.75 ERA, 4.56 FIP and 1.25 WHIP with 135 strikeouts. Those figures looked similar to his career rates of a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, suggesting, at least from a results point of view, that Quintana has stayed on track as he becomes a free agent for the fourth time in five years.
Need in 2025 and beyond
Though the Mets need to add to the rotation this winter, they appear largely set in the back end of that grouping, where Quintana would fit. They have Peterson, Megill and Blackburn as options going into next season, as well as prospects Brandon Sproat, Mike Vasil, Blade Tidwell and Dom Hamel for potential depth.
The market
Quintana will be part of a group of veteran innings-eaters, such as Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson (if his option is declined by the St. Louis Cardinals) and Patrick Corbin. His success into October gives him a leg up in that tier.
Other teams that might be interested
Quintana’s appeal is probably more for teams looking to solidify their innings counts for 2025. The ceiling isn’t that high, but the lefty is a reliable option to take the ball every fifth day. Two of his prior teams, the Angels and Chicago White Sox, likely fit that bill — St. Louis if it trades some of its starters in its rebuilding effort — and the Oakland Athletics might be the team most in need of trustworthy innings.
Projected salary
That innings-eater tier has a pretty defined market at one year and between $9 million and $12 million.
What should be the Mets’ level of interest?
Over the last season and a half, Quintana was exactly what the Mets hoped he’d be when they signed him going into the 2023 season. However, New York has developed its internal options during that time to replace what the left-hander provided. Specifically, Peterson and Megill fit as back-end options with the chance to be something more. Blackburn is essentially a younger, right-handed version of Quintana, albeit one who has been more prone to injuries of late and will start spring training on the shelf. That makes any reunion with Quintana — who started and didn’t allow an earned run in the club’s clinching games in the Wild Card Series and Division Series — unlikely.
(Top photo of Luis Severino: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
