As the season draws to a close, a heartfelt thanks to the devoted readers of this column. It’s a labor of love, no matter how frustrating covering the ever-evolving world of high-leverage relievers can be. Encapsulating this perfectly, Craig Kimbrel went from being considered an All-Star snub as the Orioles closer in early July to being designated for assignment earlier this week.
Fantasy managers must remain active with the season closing. This could be the difference between flying your championship flag or not. Luke Weaver’s emergence as the primary save share for the Yankees is a key development. Still, his workload patterns — recording at least five outs in his past three appearances — could cap his upside from a volume perspective. This also keeps relievers like Tommy Kahnle and Ian Hamilton on the periphery of fantasy value in deeper leagues or those with daily transactions.
These remaining games can also provide a window into how teams may structure their leverage ladders for the playoffs and next season. With this in mind, there are charts for the teams still in contention as a primer. Before delving into our last leverage pathways, here are the updated saves trends for the past five full seasons, including results through September 18:
There have been multiple changes in our leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
- Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.
- Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Shared Saves: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a match-up-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities.
Save Streamers (through September 29)
- Tanner Scott (SDP)
- Griffin Jax (MIN)
- Tyler Holton (DET)
- Will Vest (DET)
- Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
- Trevor Megill (MIL)
Ancillary Save Options
- Cole Sands (MIN)
- Brusdar Graterol (LAD)
- Prelander Berroa (CHW)
Statistical Credits (through September 3): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey
(Top photo of Luke Weaver: John Froschauer-Imagn Images)
