Welcome to The Athletic’s NBA Reliability Tiers, in which we measure the All-NBA status of the 49 All-Stars during the last three seasons and weigh how much those stars play in the regular season. Each day we have a new tier. We introduced the methodology with Tier 5. We continued with Tier 4. This is Tier 3.
Welcome to the middle of the pack. All of these players in Tier 3 have been undisputed top options for their teams. Some of them are still exploring that space and could be All-NBA players at some point of their burgeoning careers.
On the other hand, many of the players in this group have shown what it takes to be an All-NBA performer at some point recently in their careers and can be dangerous. But their ability to stay on the floor has been a severe issue as of late. Maybe you can rely on these players to take over consistently, but this group features some of the most injury-prone stars in the league.
The Reliability Tiers prioritize the most recent All-Star and All-NBA selections, with a higher rank given to the players who are more likely to be on the floor. This is not a ranking of who is better in terms of pure ability. There are players in this tier that if we were doing a power ranking of players in a vacuum, the young guys like Paolo Banchero or Scottie Barnes would likely be down the list, while players such as Jimmy Butler and Anthony Davis would be valued as top-20 players.
Tonight, the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers will open up against one another on national television, followed by the LA Clippers hosting the Phoenix Suns at the new Intuit Dome, a rematch of the 2021 Western Conference finals. Paul George is at the centerpiece of both games, even though he won’t be playing in either.
This won’t be a rehashing of Damian Lillard’s retort to George that the latter “keep switching teams… running from the grind.” Nonetheless, Bucks-76ers would have been an interesting spot to see how George and Lillard would have battled, especially with Lillard trying to re-establish All-NBA status with former 76ers and Clippers head coach Doc Rivers. Lillard’s struggles staying healthy, especially for a declining Portland team, played a role in him changing teams.
But George won’t be available for a season opener for the first time since 2019, when he was recovering from offseason shoulder surgeries. George recently suffered a non-contact knee injury in the preseason, and while it is only a bone bruise, it will cost him the first week of the season with his new team. While George bounced back to All-NBA status after Rivers was fired, in a season that ended with the only Clippers appearance in a conference finals, he has struggled with availability ever since.
A common narrative for NBA observers in the wake of George leaving the Clippers for Philadelphia is that the Clippers should have kept George over Kawhi Leonard because of George being more likely to be available. It is true that George has been more available than Leonard over the last three seasons and has been able to contribute more often as a result. George was the All-Star selection representing the Clippers in 2023, while Leonard got off to a slow and mostly absent start due to his challenges returning from a torn ACL suffered in 2021.
Unfortunately for George and the Clippers, George’s increased availability compared to Leonard is only a relative one. George only averaged 13.7 more games played per season than Leonard over the last three seasons, and that was without a major surgery sidelining George for an entire campaign like Leonard. George was needed the most during the 2021-22 season when Leonard was recovering, but when Jusuf Nurkić fell on George’s arm in an early December game, it left the Clippers without either of their stars for more than half of the year.
The following season, George played more than Leonard and earned an All-Star selection, but George’s misfortune continued when Luguentz Dort crashed into George’s knee a few weeks before the playoffs. The resulting injury was a severe sprain, one that didn’t require surgery, but left George unable to participate in the postseason for the second year in a row.
Last season was the biggest paradox of balancing George’s ability with his availability. On one hand, George didn’t miss a single game until Dec. 14, his longest stretch of games to start a season since joining the Clippers. George never missed more than two games in a row, and he played in 74 games, his most in five years.
But the Clippers believed that taking the ball out of George’s hands on one end of the floor and not having him be a primary point-of-attack defender on the other end was key to keeping George healthy. George’s touches decreased sharply, going from 68.8 per game in 2021 when Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue essentially made George the primary playmaker, to 75.4 touches per game in the 2021-22 season without Leonard, to 56.8 per game last season with the Clippers having future Hall of Famers James Harden and Russell Westbrook as point guards.
“We had a strategy in place that, you know, we didn’t want to get him worn down throughout the course of the season,” Lue said in March about limiting George’s on-ball role. “Him having to make every play in the pick-and-roll and hitting the ground and getting to the free-throw line. We wanted James to have that responsibility, because James was great in it. And we talked about the last 20 games, putting the ball back in PG’s hands so he can get used to it. So when we get to the playoffs, we know exactly what we want to do.”
The good news is that George played in his first postseason in three years this past spring. Leonard was not at full strength for the two games he was able to play, while George was healthy for all six of the Clippers’ Western Conference quarterfinals series loss to the eventual NBA finalist Dallas Mavericks. But George was not able to be the same player he was in the 2021 postseason without Leonard.
That is what is facing many of the players in this tier. First, can they be available enough, especially in consecutive years? And second, are they capable of an All-NBA appearance in 2025? Can they be that guy consistently? Some players are off to more convincing starts than others.
Damian Lillard
Lillard is one of the most ball-dominant stars in the league, and he showed that he can still produce at a high level even next to an All-NBA talent. Unfortunately, Lillard missed two games in the playoffs because of a right Achilles tendon strain. Lillard has had issues with his right calf going back to the 2022-23 season, when he missed 24 games. Lillard also had season-ending abdominal surgery in January 2022. It’s good that Lillard got through last season healthy, but his availability is a concern as he enters his age-34 season.
Jimmy Butler
Butler’s regular-season availability has been a concern every year that Butler has been in Miami, as he has missed at least 15 games each of the last five seasons. When the playoffs come around, Butler becomes more dangerous. But he has also missed a playoff game because of injury each of the last three years, and he missed the entire 2024 postseason because of a right MCL sprain. Butler made more 3s than he ever did with the Heat last season and he is still highly effective on both ends of the floor. Miami has been squarely in the middle of the Eastern Conference the last two seasons, and it remains to be seen if Butler can increase his participation while heading into his age-35 campaign.
Pascal Siakam
Siakam has trended down in terms of individual accomplishments the last couple of seasons, as he was neither an All-Star nor All-NBA selection for the first time in three years after getting traded from Toronto in January. But Siakam has only missed 28 games in the past three seasons, played 80 games last season, and he was very good in the playoffs for a Pacers team that made it to the Eastern Conference finals. If Siakam can carry that production over into the start of this season, then Siakam will have a good shot at regaining All-Star status, especially as Indiana’s top scoring threat.
Anthony Davis
Last season was a great year for Davis in terms of staying on the floor, as he missed only six games and returned to All-NBA status for the first time in four years. Davis’ talent and production is not why he missed being an All-NBA selection three years in a row. It’s about Davis’ durability and the fact that the Lakers have spent most of the last four seasons squarely in the Play-In picture or worse. Knee and foot injuries cost Davis more than half the 2021-22 season, while another foot injury was a factor in Davis missing 26 games in 2022-23. Davis is one of the best defenders in the league and does everything offensively well except shoot 3s. He turns 32 in March, making him one of the older starting centers in the league, but he’ll attempt to play in 70 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2018.
Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns should be at center more often in New York after he shared the floor with Rudy Gobert in his last two seasons with the Timberwolves. The last time Towns started the majority of his games at center, he was an All-NBA selection. But that was also the only time in the last five seasons that Towns missed fewer than 20 games. Last season, Towns missed more than a month after undergoing knee surgery. The year before, Towns missed most of the season due to a Grade 3 calf strain. If Towns can stay on the floor, he could see an increase in his numbers across the board.
Paul George
Some have suggested that the Clippers should have prioritized keeping George over Kawhi Leonard with both having the option to decline the final years of their contracts in 2024. George did play in more games than Leonard and represented the Clippers as an All-Star in back-to-back seasons. But George hasn’t been an All-NBA selection since 2021. And while he made it through last season without a major absence, George missed most of the 2021-22 season because of a torn ligament in his elbow and 26 games in the 2022-23 season. George missed the 2023 postseason because of a sprained knee as well. The 76ers are already experiencing what a George injury scare is like, as he suffered a bone bruise in his left knee during the last week of the preseason. Keeping George in the lineup at this stage of his career requires a team to have multiple star players who can reduce George’s workload on both sides of the floor.
Paolo Banchero
Banchero went from being the top pick of the 2022 draft to Rookie of the Year to an All-Star for a playoff team in two years. He was also the only All-Star selection to play in 80 games last season. It’s rare a big has so much of a team’s offense run through him, but that’s the case for Banchero in Orlando; he’s essentially the team’s primary playmaker. Now, the Magic’s offense is not good, and Banchero has a ways to go in terms of being efficient and more effective with the ball in his hands, but Banchero won’t be 22 years old until November, and his combination of size and skill is intriguing given what he’s already accomplished.
Ja Morant
Every player to this point has been selected for one of the previous three All-Star games. Morant stops that trend. His talent is obvious as a heavy on-ball presence who lives in the paint and the free-throw line despite his lithe frame. Morant has missed 34 games due to off-court incidents, but the more pressing issue for him going forward is his lack of durability. Shoulder surgery ended Morant’s season after only nine games last season. Morant missed a playoff game in 2023 because of a right-hand injury. Even in his 2022 campaign that ended with a Most Improved Player award and a spot on the All-NBA Second Team, Morant missed 25 games in the regular season and was unable to finish the 2022 West semifinals against the Warriors because of a right knee bone bruise. Morant’s size, style of play, injury history, and workload make him one of the bigger availability concerns in the league.
Scottie Barnes
Barnes became an All-Star last year on the strength of his ability to stuff the stat sheet beyond scoring. He averaged 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks. The only other players to average those verified numbers in a season were Draymond Green in 2016, Kevin Garnett in 2003 and Larry Bird in 1985. Barnes had missed only 13 games in his career until he broke his hand in March and missed the final 22 games of last season. The Raptors don’t have nearly as much talent now as they did a year ago, which gives Barnes a chance to possibly break 20 points per game for the first time in his short career.
De’Aaron Fox
Fox became a first-time All-Star and All-NBA performer in 2023 once he finally combined efficiency, volume and health on a winning team. The Kings weren’t nearly as lethal offensively last season, but Fox was able to show that he could stay on the floor in back-to-back seasons for the first time since his first two seasons. Fox’s volume will likely take a hit with DeMar DeRozan joining the team, but that could also allow Fox’s efficiency to bounce back.
Tyrese Maxey
Maxey fully emerged as a star last season, playing his most games without Ben Simmons, James Harden or Joel Embiid on the active roster and showing that he could score at a high level. Other than a fracture in his left foot in November 2022, Maxey has been durable over the last three seasons, and he became the league’s Most Improved Player and a first-time All-Star in 2024. Maxey also averaged nearly 30 points per game in the Eastern quarterfinals. His volume will likely decrease with Embiid returning and Paul George joining the 76ers, but Maxey has already shown that he can be efficient without stars; he should be one of the higher floor stars in the league.
Kawhi Leonard
No All-NBA performer over the last three seasons has been dealt a tougher hand than Leonard, who suffered a torn ACL in the second round of the 2021 playoffs and did not see the floor the entire next season. On one hand, Leonard returned to the NBA in 2022, did improve to 52 games that season in 2022-23 and 68 games in 2023-24. Leonard re-established his star status last season, becoming the only player in the league to score 1,500 points, make at least 50 percent from the field, and add 100 steals and 100 3s. But on the other hand, Leonard has failed to make it through any postseason healthy since 2020 because of those right knee woes. Inflammation in Leonard’s right knee was the problem last spring, and the Clippers are having Leonard focus on strengthening his knee before he takes the floor for the upcoming season. It highlights the lengths the Clippers have to go to to not only get Leonard on the floor, but also to keep him on the floor as well.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jackson Jr. played 500 more minutes than any other Grizzlies player last season, and his ability to stay on the floor has improved significantly over the past three seasons. While he reached career-highs in offensive volume, Jackson’s efficiency suffered while trying to prop up the league’s worst offense. Jackson was the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year, but his effectiveness dropped off without a bodyguard-type center consistently in the lineup. Getting Jackson back to All-Star level and All-Defense form could be as simple as playing with Ja Morant and lottery pick Zach Edey. But Jackson Jr. is already dealing with a bad hamstring this month as well.
Jrue Holiday
Holiday joining the Celtics resulted in a drop from his All-Star volume in Milwaukee, but he also won his second NBA championship, was an All-Defensive team selection and took home an Olympic gold medal in the Paris 2024 Olympics.s as well, while making yet another All-Defensive team. Most importantly, other than a shoulder injury in March, Holiday was mostly healthy last season. He is 34, but Holiday has one of the lightest workloads of a star point guard. It’s how he went from shooting 39.6 percent from the field in three postseasons with the Bucks to 50.3 percent with the Celtics last spring.
Lauri Markkanen
Markkanen broke out as an All-Star and the league’s Most Improved Player in 2023, but last season highlighted the stat that Markkanen has missed at least 14 games in every season of his career. Hamstring, quad, and shoulder injuries held Markkanen to only 55 games last season, and he is still looking for his first career postseason as well. After signing a new contract extension in August to stay in Utah, it would be a surprise if Markkanen and the Jazz play in the postseason in 2025.
Chris Paul
Paul is the lowest-ranked player who has appeared on an All-NBA team just one of the last three years. Last season in Golden State was the first time that Paul came off the bench in 19 NBA seasons and the first time he missed the playoffs in 14 years. In 2023, Paul missed the final four postseason games in Phoenix in 2023 because of a groin injury, and his final All-Star season was interrupted by a fractured thumb. The future Hall of Famer is 39 years old and now on his seventh NBA team, but he will get to start again in San Antonio after averaging fewer than 13 points and 31 minutes for the first time in his career last season.
Kyrie Irving
Irving just came off a postseason where he played a career-high 879 minutes. That’s 54 more minutes than Irving’s other seasons since he left Cleveland in 2017 combined. Talent and on-court fit are rarely the concern for Irving, a player equally dangerous on the ball or off the ball playing next to a fulcrum of offense. Irving has missed at least 15 games each of the last seven seasons, and while last year was by far his quietest in terms of non-injury incidents in several seasons, Irving still missed 24 games mostly to heel and thumb injuries. Irving will be 33 years old in March, and durability has never been a strong suit of his.
Dejounte Murray
In two seasons with the Atlanta Hawks, Dejounte Murray missed a total of 12 games. That does not include a postseason suspension in 2023 for making inappropriate contact with and verbally abusing a game official. Murray was unable to form a working partnership with Trae Young, and. as a result, Murray’s lone career All-Star selection is still from his last season with the San Antonio Spurs. Now, Murray will try to find his fit and fit better with the other on-ball options in New Orleans, though it helps that he was brought to the Pelicans specifically to help address the team’s woeful clutch-time offense.
Rudy Gobert
Gobert’s defensive accolades speak for themselves, for the most part; there are always some bad-faith arguments when it comes to Gobert’s accomplishments. When Gobert missed a Timberwolves playoff win in Denver because of the birth of his child, some player analysts tried to use that as a point against Gobert’s impact. While Gobert has been a top defender in Minnesota, he has not made an All-Star Game since he was traded from Utah. Given his limitations offensively as a passer and shooter, there’s a chance that Gobert’s awards are limited to All-Defense teams.
Fred VanVleet
When it comes to small guards, VanVleet is one of the most available players in the league. Over the past three seasons, only nine players have played more minutes, only eight players have made more 3s, only six players have more assists, and only three players have more steals. On the flip side, VanVleet will be 31 years old in February, is 6 feet tall, has never shot 43 percent or better from the field, and his scoring has dropped from his All-Star career-high of 20.3 points each of the last two seasons. It will be a surprise if VanVleet gets back to an All-Star Game, but his consistency should be applauded.
Jarrett Allen
Like Garland, his Cavs teammate, Allen made his lone All-Star appearance in 2022 and has been working alongside a similar player for multiple seasons. In Allen’s case, he has been in the lineup with Evan Mobley, who has yet to make an All-Star appearance. Allen has been about as productive as he was in his All-Star year, but he has missed the finish of Cleveland’s season two of the last three years. Allen’s 2022 season was cut short by a fractured finger and he also missed Cleveland’s final eight playoff games last season due to a rib injury.
Zion Williamson
Williamson, with his combination of size and driving ability, is one of the most dynamic players in the league. Unfortunately, no star is likely to miss more time than Williamson, who has failed to finish any of the last three seasons healthy and has not played in a single postseason game in five seasons with the Pelicans. Williamson missed the entire 2021-22 season due to foot surgery, while hamstring injuries to both legs ended his last two seasons prematurely.
James Harden
Harden has missed the last two All-Star games despite playing at a high level. He led the NBA in assists per game in 2023 but missed 24 games that same season, mostly because of a right foot injury. Last year, Harden missed the start of the season after he requested the Philadelphia 76ers trade him to the LA Clippers, a move that wasn’t acquiesced to until after the preseason ended. Harden, 35, has one of the heaviest workloads in the league when he plays, but the mileage makes his efficiency and durability a concern at this point of his career.
Darius Garland
Garland is one of the rare star point guards who has had to cede the team lead in touches to another guard. While Garland has complemented Donovan Mitchell well enough, the bigger concern with Garland has been his ability to stay on the floor. Garland missed a career-worst 25 games last season, mostly because of a serious jaw injury.
Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins made his lone All-Star appearance in 2022. Unfortunately, he has not approached the same level of play or availability since, most notably because of personal reasons; Wiggins’ father Mitchell passed away recently. Golden State could use a bounce-back season from Wiggins after he hit career lows in scoring, assists, steals and minutes last season.
Draymond Green
Green has made a career out of being a 6-foot-6 versatile big man. But even in 2022, Golden State’s last championship season, Green played just 46 games because of back issues. The following year, Green was suspended indefinitely for unsportsmanlike conduct after striking Phoenix Suns center Jusuf Nurkić in the face. Green’s repeated behavior led to more suspensions last season. While Green is an impactful player, that impact is too often felt in extended absences.
Zach LaVine
LaVine saw the floor just 25 games last season due to season-ending foot surgery. The Bulls were a playoff team when LaVine made his last All-Star appearance, but they were eliminated in the Play-In the last two years, including 2022-23 when LaVine played his most games (77) in eight years. This upcoming season will be an opportunity for LaVine to show that he is healthy and capable of returning to All-Star status.
Khris Middleton
Middleton has had a tough stretch since being named an All-Star in 2022. He was held to just two playoff games that spring because of a sprained knee. Wrist surgery and knee issues limited Middleton to 33 games the following season. In 2024, he had ankle injuries that cost him a few weeks and led to offseason surgeries. Middleton is still an effective player capable of doing more on the ball than most wings, but his availability has been an issue for years.
LaMelo Ball
On one hand, Ball has the talent of a star as a 6-foot-7 point guard who is capable of being one of the league’s leading pick-and-roll creators. But Ball has only played in 58 games the last two seasons, and the Hornets were only 20-38 in those games. The Hornets were a Play-In Tournament team in Ball’s All-Star season. Now is a good time for Ball to show that he can stay on the court and contribute to winning basketball as his team’s only All-Star caliber player.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb: The Athletic; Photos: Stephen Gosling / NBAE, Charlie Neibergall / Associated Press, Joe Murphy / NBAE via Getty Images)
