Newcastle United began this weekend contemplating the possibility of going top of the Premier League. They ended it pondering where they go next after losing their unbeaten status following an unconvincing — yet points-laden — start to 2024-25.
Head coach Eddie Howe may rightly feel the error-strewn 3-1 away defeat against Fulham was the “worst we’ve played”, but positive results had masked worryingly erratic performances in the previous four league matches. Many fans who saw those games feared a reversal like Saturday’s was coming.
So, just what is going wrong? And what must Howe fix?
Basic errors and defensive deficiencies
Howe was critical of how “loose in every phase of our defending” Newcastle were against Fulham, insisting “that’s not something we’ve had previously in our game”.
While that was the case throughout 2022-23, when Newcastle conceded a joint-Premier League-least 33 goals in Howe’s first full season, their defensive structures have gradually eroded since.
On Saturday, Fulham managed 22 shots, 11 on target and an expected goals (xG) return — which measures the quality of shots conceded and the likelihood of them being scored — of 2.29, but those figures are no longer unusually high for Newcastle’s opponents.
Following that day’s eight top-flight fixtures, Newcastle were averaging, according to fbref.com, the second-most shots faced (17.8), the fourth-most shots on target faced (5.8) and sixth-worst xG against (1.76) this season. To compound matters, although Nick Pope has produced 24 saves in the first five league matches, many of them important ones — making him the Premier League’s second-busiest goalkeeper — Howe’s team keep coughing up gilt-edged opportunities by making basic mistakes.
For Fulham’s opener, Adama Traore was allowed to cross unchallenged from the left and Fabian Schar failed to close down Raul Jimenez, who had time to touch, turn and finish. Pope was culpable for Emile Smith Rowe’s goal to make it 2-0, somehow allowing a tame shot to squirm under him, but Fulham had poured through Newcastle’s midfield in the build-up, as they did with regular ease during the match.
The Londoners were then gifted a third by Bruno Guimaraes, who played a terrible pass across his own box straight to Reiss Nelson. It was a comical howler, representative of a performance littered with fundamental faults.
Newcastle have made six errors leading to shots this season, a joint-high, while only Southampton (four) have conceded more goals (three) following a mistake. Eventually, Newcastle were going to be punished for those blunders.
Selection issues — and too many players hooked early
For Howe to make four changes to his XI from the previous weekend signalled that he is unsure what his best team is.
It is unusual for him to make so many alterations — and it is even rarer for him to undertake significant half-time reshuffles, but he followed his triple 46th-minute substitution at Wolverhampton Wanderers last Sunday when his team were 1-0 down with a double one at Craven Cottage, where they trailed 2-0. “It’s not something I want to be doing,” Howe said afterwards.
But, with too many players underperforming and Howe struggling to find the right configuration, he has resorted to inter- and intra-match tweaks.
Lloyd Kelly deputised at left-back, theoretically to strengthen Newcastle defensively, but he underwhelmed once more. Lewis Hall, meanwhile, is an attacking asset but a defensive liability. At right-back, Tino Livramento started the season as first choice but has not cemented that position, while Kieran Trippier looked undercooked against Fulham in what was his first league start of 2024-25.
How to best deploy his most dangerous attackers is proving problematic for Howe.
Anthony Gordon was shifted to the right wing, but his body language was poor and he was ineffective before he got moved back to the left. Harvey Barnes is more potent on that side, as he showed with another clinically-taken goal to halve the deficit, but does not offer much in general play. Then there’s Jacob Murphy, who was dropped following a string of poor displays but injected energy after the break on Saturday, providing an assist for Barnes within 28 seconds.
Substitutes had bailed out Newcastle against Bournemouth, Tottenham and Wolves in earlier games this season, but the replacements were given too much to do at Fulham.
Howe needs to get his selections right from the beginning — and the players he picks need to start delivering.
Midfield balance (and underperformance)
No position encapsulates Howe’s selection conundrum better than his midfield, where the balance is not right.
Joelinton excelled against Southampton on the opening weekend but has been profligate in possession since. Sean Longstaff was dropped on Saturday for Joe Willock, who had created five chances as a half-time substitute last Sunday at Wolves. Yet Howe admitted afterwards he may have restored Willock, who had been injured, to the starting line-up prematurely. The former Arsenal midfielder was hooked at the break.
Sandro Tonali is yet to start a league game since ending his 10-month suspension for breaching rules against gambling, with Howe attempting to protect the Italian from a massive spike in workload. But his quality on the ball would benefit a team who have the league’s eight-worst passing accuracy (80 per cent) and make its seventh-fewest progressive passes per 90 minutes (33.2).
Then there is Guimaraes, who typifies the “physical” issues which Howe accepts are affecting his side. Newcastle lack the intensity and athleticism which made them so effective under him previously, with a lethargic midfield often getting bypassed.
Guimaraes cannot cover enough ground to protect his back four, while the two No 8s do not provide enough defensive protection when the hardworking, if limited, Longstaff is not starting. Howe gave Guimaraes the captaincy to empower him, but he has appeared burdened by it. The Brazilian is failing to deliver the talismanic quarterback-esque displays Newcastle require from him.
When Howe reverted to a double-pivot midfield in the second half against Fulham, Newcastle were less prone to the counter.
Is the time coming to move away from the 4-3-3 system, particularly in away games?
Isolated Isak
The systemic problems detailed above are affecting Newcastle’s attack.
After Saturday, their xG per 90 (1.33) was just 12th-best in the Premier League, according to fbref.com, while they have averaged the fifth-fewest shots (11.2) and put the eighth-fewest on target (4.0). That is unsurprising given their 18.8 touches in the opposition box per 90 is the joint-third-lowest, highlighting their inability to involve their centre-forward often enough.
Against Fulham, Alexander Isak had an unhappy 25th birthday, managing just three touches in the opposition box and two shots, both of which were blocked. Aside from against Bournemouth (11), Isak has had five or fewer touches in the area in each game, while he is averaging just o.7 non-blocked shots per 90, with 0.4 on target. In three out of the five games, his xG has been 0.09 or fewer.
Admittedly, Schar should have squared for Isak to tap in when the centre-back stole possession from Smith Rowe in the box, but the Swede is lacking sharpness following a toe injury and Newcastle are not releasing him into dangerous positions often enough. When Gordon moved centrally against Wolves, he too was isolated, suggesting it is a wider structural shortcoming.
With Callum Wilson out until the October international break and 21-year-old summer signing William Osula, who came on for his debut on Saturday, raw and not yet ready to challenge, Newcastle have to create greater opportunities for Isak. His 21 league goals in 2023-24 came from just 27 starts, but Isak has only one from five games this season.
“He’s not having the impact in the game that we want him to have,” Howe said. “Hence the tactical reshuffle at half-time to try to get players nearer to him.”
Moving Gordon and Barnes closer to Isak worked to an extent, but Howe’s in-game tinkering could not rescue Newcastle again.
With four-in-a-row champions Manchester City visiting St James’ Park on Saturday, Howe simply has to get his team selection right from the start — and his chosen players must definitely deliver far more from the get-go.
(Top photo: Alex Davidson/Getty Images)
