Newcastle's goalscoring woes: The underlying numbers behind a worrying trend

Eddie Howe tried to sugercoat it but what had seemed like a short-term aberration risks becoming a worrying trend for Newcastle United. One that, if it persists, threatens to derail their European-qualification bid.

“We need to score (more), we need to feel that belief,” Howe said, accepting that putting the ball in the back of the net is “the most important aspect”. “We’d had that for such a long time but we’re probably still not as fluent as we have been previously.”

Quite the opposite.

Newcastle have managed just 13 goals in 12 games, the fewest in the Premier League’s top half, and only Southampton (nine), Everton and Crystal Palace (both 10) have found the net less frequently. Five teams who sit below Newcastle have better goalscoring records.

Monday’s surprise — and alarmingly limp — 2-0 home defeat to West Ham United marked the third occasion this season that Newcastle have failed to score. On only three occasions have they scored more than once. Only once have they scored three.

Decent chances are being created at a reasonable-enough rate — Newcastle’s expected goals (xG) return, which measures the quality of their shots, is 18.21 — but Howe’s side have been profligate.

Newcastle’s goals-to-xG differential is -5.21, the third-worst in the Premier League behind Manchester United (5.32) and Palace (5.30).

Last season, Newcastle were far more clinical, outperforming their xG of 77.08 by 7.92, scoring 85 goals at a rate of 2.2 per game, which was their best-ever return in a Premier League campaign.

In 2022-23, however, Newcastle scored 68 goals from an xG of 73.36 — a differential of -5.36. Although that was an ‘underperformance’ relative to the quality of their opportunities, Newcastle still scored at a rate of 1.8 goals per game, significantly higher than the 1.1 they are managing in 2024-25 so far.

The chart below shows Newcastle’s goals vs xG over a 10-game rolling period since the start of the 2021-22 campaign. While there have been previous spells of greater underperformance during Howe’s tenure, which encouragingly suggests an upturn should arrive soon, the underlying metrics this season are perturbing.

Per 90, Newcastle’s figures compared to the past two full campaigns are significantly down for goals (from 2.0 to 1.1), non-penalty xG (1.82 to 1.39), shots (14.8 to 13.1), efforts on target (5.4 to 4.0) and ‘big chances’ (3.3 to 1.6), defined by Opta as a situations when a player should be expected to score. While they previously ranked in the top six for most offensive indicators, they are now in the bottom half.

Against West Ham, Newcastle had 35 touches in the opposition box, 18 shots, and their xG was 1.69 — yet only two of those opportunities were classed as ‘big chances’, while they directed just two of their efforts on target.

When the onus is on Newcastle to unlock defences, they invariably struggle to do so.

This was the seventh occasion this season that Newcastle have had the majority of the ball (52.4 per cent) and it was their third defeat in those matches. Newcastle’s only two victories with more than 50 per cent possession have come against Nottingham Forest (56.3 per cent) earlier this month and Wolverhampton Wanderers (51.5 per cent) in September.

It is not coincidental that Newcastle have won the three matches in which they have had their lowest possession share. Across five matches in which they have had less than 50 per cent of the ball, Newcastle have lost only once (at Chelsea). Howe’s team excel in transition, rather than when they are forced to build-up patiently and break teams down.

The West Ham defeat was frustratingly similar to the 1-0 loss to Brighton last month, which also came immediately after an international break.

If anything, Newcastle were more threatening (and more wasteful) against Brighton but on both occasions, they appeared comfortable and in control but shipped sloppy goals — on Monday, Tomas Soucek nodded in unmarked from a corner after losing Lloyd Kelly for the opener — looked vulnerable to the counter and became increasingly ragged as the match wore on.

Despite chasing the game, Newcastle’s second-half xG against West Ham was just 0.49. They had eight shots but directed none on target and did not register a ‘big chance’.

On Monday, Howe’s changes did not help. In fact, they hindered.

Harvey Barnes (introduced after 46 minutes), Sandro Tonali (57 minutes), Callum Wilson (68 minutes) and Jacob Murphy (69 minutes) all failed to make a positive impact. Injuries to Joe Willock and Bruno Guimaraes did not aid Howe, but his decision to move to a 4-2-3-1 system with Anthony Gordon as a No 10 did not prove successful. Gordon started on the left, with Joelinton on the right, and they were also switched around but to no avail.

The late shift to a 4-4-2 structure made Newcastle even more disjointed, meanwhile, with huge gaps between the midfield and front two, and no coherent or discernible offensive structure.

“I really didn’t like us in the last half-an-hour,” Howe said. “We lost our way a little bit and became desperate in some ways.”

And it was not as if West Ham travelled to Tyneside and merely sat back, either. Rather, Newcastle’s big names — Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, Guimaraes and Joelinton — simply did not perform. When their star players all fail to shine simultaneously, Newcastle lack the quality elsewhere to adequately compensate.

Regardless, Wilson’s return is an undoubted boost, even if he was starved of service. The 32-year-old had missed the first 14 matches of the season in all competitions and has featured just six times from a possible 37 fixtures in 2024 due to a string of injuries.

With 47 goals, Wilson is second only to Alan Shearer (148) in Newcastle’s Premier League goalscoring charts. A fit and firing Wilson will not only score goals, but also push Isak to greater heights, as he did in 2022-23.

Given that only five players have found the back of the net for Newcastle in the league so far this season — Isak (four), Barnes (four), Gordon (two), Joelinton (two) and Fabian Schar (one) — having a striker of Wilson’s pedigree available again feels essential heading into the festive schedule.

Inconsistency has plagued Newcastle all season and, until they rediscover their goalscoring form of the past two campaigns, it will continue to inhibit their progress.

(Top photo: Alex Dodd – CameraSport via Getty Images)