Welcome back for another week of fantasy football speculation. I use a patented, data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, with the goal of identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then, for all the last-minute managers on the go, I include a section at the bottom of the column — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals (courtesy of TruMedia). In searching for a fantasy quarterback, we need volume, of course, but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s on to charting EPA/attempt and NextGen Stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (Images below)
Before digging through our speculative bargain bin, ensure Anthony Richardson, Bo Nix, and Russell Wilson are no longer available. We’ve reached the point of the season where most QB situations are settled, so it’s fine to take a narrow view, bridging the gap week-to-week where necessary. I know one thing, though — my teams in need of a QB are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Behind one door is a roller coaster, and behind the other is a… roller coaster. So now it’s a matter of which ride is less likely to get us sick — Jameis Winston or Will Levis (I know).
Winston is back from the bye, which was preceded by a disastrous three-interception outing versus the Los Angeles Chargers, an admittedly tough draw. He’ll pull the significantly softer Saints this weekend — New Orleans ranks in the bottom two in +20-yard completions allowed and YAC/reception.
Levis piqued my interest by playing the closest thing to mistake-free football in his career last week against a tough Chargers defense. But the sledding won’t get easier as the Titans’ gauntlet continues with the Vikings and Texans on the horizon. I’m holding my nose and rolling with Winston for the potential ceiling.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the mainstream headliners — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Audric Estime, Gus Edwards, and Jerome Ford have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved successful by pivoting away from the lowest-hanging fruit — total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ball carriers showing top-tier efficiency in fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize him as a speculative add.
Six Available RBs w/+40.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Jaylen Wright, MIA — 62.1% Touch/Snap%
- Trey Benson, ARI — 59.5% Touch/Snap%
- Cam Akers, MIN — 44.9% Touch/Snap%
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 43.2% Touch/Snap%
- Ray Davis, BUF — 42.9% Touch/Snap%
- Tyjae Spears, TEN — 41.7% Touch/Snap%
Six Available RBs w/+0.50 Fantasy Points Per Snap (+10 Touches Past 4 Games)
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.72 FPS/Snap
- Trey Benson, ARI — 0.65 FPS/Snap
- Emari Demercado, ARI — 0.58 FPS/Snap
- Zamir White, LV — 0.56 FPS/Snap
- JaMycal Hasty, NE — 0.51 FPS/Snap
- Tyler Goodson, IND — 0.50 FPS/Snap
Suboptimal RB options are the new norm if you whiff on the first waiver run this year. That said, it’s par for the course at this stage of the season, when it becomes more about identifying the crop of “next men up.” With RB committees as the new standard, you’ll be hard-pressed to find immediate production.
If I had to pick my favorite combination of payout for now and later, at only 25 percent rostered, I would go back to the well (again) to stash Bills backup Ray Davis. I still think Buffalo’s fourth-round rookie out of Kentucky represents the best case for a stash — standalone fantasy floor with league-winning upside in the case of a serious injury to James Cook.
For managers with immediate needs who were left empty-handed with their starting RB on the bye, check the availability of Tennessee backup Tyjae Spears. At only 40 percent rostered on Yahoo, Spears returned from injury to handle 43 percent of the Titans’ RB opportunities. He’s skilled as a pass catcher and could see an expanded role in negative game scripts as a perennial underdog.
Wide Receivers
Like free agent RBs, make sure this week’s top WR adds Ricky Pearsall, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Jauan Jennings already belong to a squad. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — which is precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So, let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above-average amount of looks while doing it.
Fourteen Available WRs w/ +15 Routes Run Per Game, +15% Targets Per Route, +0.20 Fantasy Points Per Route (Past 4 Games)
- Alec Pierce, IND — 28.8 Rte/Gm, 16.5% TPRR, 0.27 FPS/Rte
- Noah Brown, WAS — 27.5 Rte/Gm, 18.2% TPRR, 0.33 FPS/Rte
- Joshua Palmer, LAC — 25.0 Rte/Gm, 15.0% TPRR, 0.38 FPS/Rte
- Ryan Miller, TB — 23.0 Rte/Gm, 15.9% TPRR, 0.20 FPS/Rte
- Michael Wilson, ARI — 22.0 Rte/Gm, 15.9% TPRR, 0.25 FPS/Rte
- Jalen Coker, CAR — 22.0 Rte/Gm, 20.5% TPRR, 0.37 FPS/Rte
- Jalen Nailor, MIN — 21.5 Rte/Gm, 15.1% TPRR, 0.28 FPS/Rte
- Calvin Austin III, PIT — 21.0 Rte/Gm, 22.2% TPRR, 0.46 FPS/Rte
- Cody White, SEA — 20.0 Rte/Gm, 15.0% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- Troy Franklin, DEN — 19.0 Rte/Gm, 18.4% TPRR, 0.22 FPS/Rte
- John Metchie III, HOU — 19.0 Rte/Gm, 15.8% TPRR, 0.32 FPS/Rte
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey, DEN — 17.3 Rte/Gm, 24.6% TPRR, 0.21 FPS/Rte
- Nelson Agholor, BAL — 15.3 Rte/Gm, 16.4% TPRR, 0.44 FPS/Rte
We finally got through a weekend of action without losing a top 10 WR. Woohoo! Unfortunately for the reality of fantasy gamers, managers are hoarding pass catchers like never before. I’ve been combing the wire with a fine-toothed comb all day… and boy are my hands tired (Fozzie Bear jokes are a clear sign of my desperation).
Again, I present you with a choice attached to the incomparable Jameis Winston (sigh). I wound up settling on Elijah Moore in several leagues. He’s on the fast track in New Orleans Sunday against a leaky secondary, plus he ranks just one target and two catches shy of the team lead while Winston has been under center. Moore is not playing every down, but he could finish as a WR2/3. Cleveland deploys a ton of three-WR sets, resulting in 17 grabs and a team-leading 26.8 percent target/route run for Moore since Winston took over signal-calling in Week 7.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top adds, Cade Otton and T.J. Hockenson, aren’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism — which may be an exercise in futility. But there’s no retreat or surrender in these fantasy streets.
Four TEs w/+11% Team Target Share, +6.0 Air Yards Per Target (Past 4 Games)
- Jonnu Smith, MIA — 20.0% Team Tar, 6.0 AY/Tar
- Mike Gesicki, CIN — 15.9% Team Tar, 9.3 AY/Tar
- Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR — 13.9% Team Tar, 6.3 AY/Tar
- Theo Johnson, NYG — 13.1% Team Tar, 10.3 AY/Tar
- Juwan Johnson, NO — 11.9% Team Tar, 8.8 AY/Tar
- Josh Oliver, MIN — 11.8% Team Tar, 8.5 AY/Tar
- Chig Okonkwo, TEN — 11.1% Team Tar, 7.9 AY/Tar
Week 11 Sunday Streaming Service (<35% Rostered per Yahoo!)
- QB — Jameis Winston, CLE at NO
- RB — Ray Davis, BUF vs. KC
- RB — Jerome Ford, CLE at NO
- WR — Elijah Moore, CLE at NO
- TE — Will Dissly, LAC vs. CIN
- DST — Texans at DAL
(Top photo of Elijah Moore: Scott Galvin-Imagn Images)
