The NFC North is good. Really good.
The top three teams — the Detroit Lions (12-1), the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) and the Green Bay Packers (9-4) — have a combined record of 32-7 this season. Four of those losses came at the hands of a divisional opponent, meaning the Lions, Vikings and Packers are 28-3 against the rest of the NFL. Even when you include the last-place Chicago Bears, the North’s combined record of 36-16 is still six games better than that of the next-best division. The Lions have already clinched a playoff spot, and the Vikings and Packers are likely to follow suit in the coming weeks.
The Lions, Packers, and Vikings are 28-3 Against the rest of the NFL.
Outside of games against each other, none of these teams have lost since October. pic.twitter.com/Y0CxckQg12
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 9, 2024
So what should we expect heading into the final four weeks of the regular season? Who has the edge as these teams prepare to face each other? Which quarterback should we trust the most? Who will win the division, and just how far can any of them go?
Ahead of Week 15, we gathered our beat reporters for the Lions (Colton Pouncy), Vikings (Alec Lewis) and Packers (Matt Schneidman) to offer their takes on who will rule the North.
After a big weekend of games — the Lions topping the Packers on Thursday night and the Vikings beating Kirk Cousins and the Falcons on Sunday — how are you feeling about your team right now?
Pouncy: It’s hard to nitpick a team that’s won a franchise-record 11 games in a row and is off to a franchise-record 12-1 start. Thursday’s win over the Packers was one of the best of the Dan Campbell era, considering how short-handed the team was. By the end of the game, none of Detroit’s top eight defensive linemen when the season began were on the field. Neither were four of their top linebackers. Safety Brian Branch also left late in the fourth quarter. But they got it done and gave themselves a bit of breathing room. There’s still work to do to clinch the division title and the No. 1 seed, but you have to like their chances after a crucial win. That was the one they needed.
Lewis: This is probably as good as I’ve felt about the Vikings all year. They’ve won six in a row, but it’s the way they’ve earned these victories that’s most notable. Three weeks ago, the Vikings needed quarterback Sam Darnold to step up in overtime. He did. Two weeks ago, the Vikings relied on Darnold to throw them back into the game against the Cardinals. He did. This past weekend, the Falcons rolled the dice and played single-high coverage. The Vikings needed Darnold to dissect Atlanta, and he had no trouble.
His play in pivotal moments, paired with Jordan Addison’s ascent, gives Minnesota a level of explosiveness that makes it formidable. It’s not all gravy, of course. The defense has not been its usual run-stuffing self over the last couple of weeks. And if the pass rush can’t get home, opponents typically find space in the Vikings’ zones. But as long as they continue to generate turnovers the way they are, they can play with anyone.
Schneidman: I think the Packers are a very good team, just not an elite one. They’ve lost to the Vikings by two, the Lions by three and the Eagles by five. They can beat anybody in the NFC. They just haven’t yet.
Jordan Love is finally healthy and has strung together three interception-free games after throwing one in each of his first eight appearances. Head coach Matt LaFleur said his quarterback was outstanding in the loss to the Lions last Thursday. I’d agree, especially in the second half. His movement (both inside and outside the pocket), throw power and accuracy enable him to make any play. The ultimate sign of respect to Love was Campbell going for it on that last fourth down while well within field goal range.
Green Bay is finally defending the run consistently, too, after struggling to do so for the majority of LaFleur’s first five years in charge. The biggest problem with the Packers right now is their pass defense, not only because of a leaky performance against the Lions but also because starting nickel Javon Bullard is week-to-week with an ankle injury, starting safety Evan Williams is in concussion protocol and cornerback Jaire Alexander has yet to return from a reaggravated PCL injury. An inconsistent pass rush has done the coverage no favors, either.
Run us through your team’s final four games. What’s the prognosis heading into the final month of the regular season?
Pouncy: The Lions finish with the Bills (10-3) at home, the Bears (4-9) and 49ers (6-7) on the road and the Vikings in the regular-season finale in Detroit. If you look around at other divisions, the Chiefs and Bills have already clinched with the same or worse record than the Lions.
Lewis: This four-game finish is a gauntlet. The Vikings host the Bears then play the Seahawks (8-5) on the road. The Packers come to town in Week 17 and they complete the regular season on the road in Detroit. If the Vikings don’t take care of business Monday night against Chicago, the NFC North may be out of reach. If they do, they could push the Lions down the stretch.
Schneidman: The Packers play in Seattle on “Sunday Night Football” this week. That’s a crucial one and a potential wild-card round preview. Green Bay then hosts the Saints (5-8) likely sans Derek Carr on “Monday Night Football” (that should be a win) before traveling to Minneapolis in Week 17 and hosting the Bears the following week. The Packers realistically need one more win to make the playoffs and probably two to get the No. 6 seed. I think the key is avoiding a first-round trip to Philadelphia or Detroit as the No. 7 seed. That shouldn’t be too difficult for a 9-4 team with that schedule remaining.
On a scale of 1 to 10, what’s your level of trust in your team’s starting quarterback as the playoffs approach?
Pouncy: If you’re asking the city of Detroit, it’s an 11 out of 10. The fans chant Jared Goff’s name all over the state. That’s what happens when you help a franchise win its first playoff game in 32 years. Goff quarterbacked the Los Angeles Rams to a Super Bowl and was efficient in the Lions’ run to the NFC Championship Game last season. He’s prone to games where he tries to do a bit too much, but he has a strong enough track record to feel good about his composure in the postseason.
Lewis: I want to reply with the shrug emoji, but that’d be a cop-out. So, 6? Darnold’s history of turnovers is always in the back of my mind, but this is a totally different circumstance for him. He has a different head coach, he’s in a different system and he’s throwing to different skill players. He is playing better as the weeks go by. Anything higher than a 6, and you’d probably call me crazy … but this may be crazy in itself.
Schneidman: I’d go 8 for Love. As I mentioned, he’s finally fully healthy and that mobility has opened things up for the offense. In his last three games, Love has completed 46 of 71 passes for 643 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. He has also created with his legs beyond the line of scrimmage, which is something he’s more than capable of doing if necessary. It was the second half of last season when Love arguably played better than any other quarterback, with 18 touchdowns and one interception over the final eight regular-season games before lighting up Dallas in the wild-card round. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has another hot streak in him that extends into the postseason.
Which non-quarterback on your team is a potential X-factor who could impact the divisional title race?
Pouncy: I’ll go with rookie corner Terrion Arnold. It’s been a bit of an up-and-down season for Arnold, which is to be expected for a rookie playing one of the hardest positions in the league and with the most man coverage snaps (210) of any player at his position, per TruMedia. Many of his early struggles resulted in penalties from being a bit handsy and he needed to iron out technique issues. But Campbell said Arnold is coming off his best game of the season versus the Packers. If he’s starting to figure things out, he’ll be another plus in a Detroit secondary that features Branch, Kerby Joseph and Carlton Davis III.
Lewis: Blake Cashman. The Vikings haven’t lost when their middle linebacker is healthy and playing. The team is allowing a league-worst 16.5 percent explosive play rate when Cashman is absent. He constricts space over the middle of the field and makes it more difficult for quarterbacks to find passing lanes. The Vikings also need Cashman as the defensive green dot, helping to orchestrate defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ complex system.
Schneidman: Can I choose a body part? Like Alexander’s knee? He hasn’t played in four weeks, but he practiced in a limited capacity last week. Alexander has been a second-team All-Pro the last two seasons in which he’s played at least 15 games (2020 and 2022). He’s only 27 and can still play at that level, but staying healthy has been the problem in recent years. If he can get (and stay) healthy for the home stretch — that’s a big if — he’s capable of shutting down half the field. If Bullard is out for a couple of weeks, Keisean Nixon will slide to nickel and Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes will start outside with Alexander out. That’s not likely to win you many playoff games.
Finally, which team is your pick to win the North, and how far do you see that team going in the playoffs?
Pouncy: The Bears. Kidding, kidding. I picked the Lions to win the North before the season, and they’ve given me no reason to jump ship now. Their lack of defensive depth is a bit concerning, but they’re expected to get players like D.J. Reader, Alex Anzalone, Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal and others back in the near future. If they win three of their final four games, they’ll clinch the division and the No. 1 seed. That’s certainly doable. As for how far this team goes, a first-round bye would mean two home games at Ford Field before the Super Bowl. I think they win both. What happens there, though, is anyone’s guess.
Lewis: Colton from the top rope … wow. I will be sticking with the Lions, even though I think this could come down to the wire. If it does, I’ll be fascinated to see how the Detroit secondary tries to defend Justin Jefferson and Addison with Darnold playing so well. As long as Za’Darius Smith remains healthy and engaged, and as long as the Lions have Branch, I think they can find their way to New Orleans. But there are also days when I think Jordan Love is the best QB in the world, and it’s hard to believe any staff would game plan and prepare better for a one-game season than Minnesota. We’re doing this roundtable for a reason; all of these teams are legit.
Schneidman: I picked the Lions to win the North before the season and I’m sticking with it. I also picked the Chiefs to beat the Lions in the Super Bowl after the Packers lost in Detroit, so I’m sticking with that prediction, too. The Lions running game and offensive line are too good, even after the mighty Green Bay run defense held Detroit to 3.6 yards per carry on 30-plus carries in both matchups this season. If the Lions get healthy on the defensive front, I don’t know if anybody is stopping them. Maybe Aidan Hutchinson even sacks Patrick Mahomes on Feb. 9.
(Top photo of Tim Patrick: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
