If you thought that the Bears’ game-ending blunder was bad or that Justin Tucker’s fall from GOAT status was tough, imagine being on the wrong side of both of those bets this past week.
My NFL Projection Model had the over in the Bears/Lions on Thanksgiving, which would have greatly benefitted from the Bears playing like a normal team and kicking a field goal to go to overtime. And we were on the Ravens and the over with Justin Tucker’s kicking woes. By no means is there a guarantee that those plays would’ve won otherwise, but I do feel quite confident that the Ravens would have beaten the Eagles if they had a competent kicking game. But they don’t, and that’s noted for the future.
Last week’s record: 0-4, -4.40 units
Season record: 26-32-3, -8.10 units, -12.4% ROI
If you believe in regressing to the mean, well, we are due. We’re 2-10-1 over the last three weeks, which has pretty much all but ruined the year. There are five weeks left, plus the playoffs, so hopefully we can get this thing turned around starting now. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck to us!
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
Best bets for NFL Week 14
Green Bay Packers +3.5 (-115) at Detroit Lions
If you gleaned any takeaways from the Bears-Lions Thanksgiving matchup other than the Bears’ incompetency, it was that the Detroit defense was absolutely gutted during the game. Well, a week later, things aren’t looking much better. Maybe the Lions just score all over the Packers defense, but I think there is a good chance the Packers put up a bunch of points here and have a chance to win outright.
- Worst price to bet: Packers +3 (-110)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers under 44.5 (-110)
Both of these teams have been much better on offense since making changes at quarterback, and I’m going to bet against that. The Steelers should have their full pass-rushing package healthy for the first time since September, and I think the market is overlooking that. Now, I’m not going to say I’m in love with betting an under involving Jameis Winston. The guy is a gunslinger, and short fields and interception returns for touchdowns are always on the table. But so are red zone interceptions, as we saw at the end of the Broncos game. It’s not fun, but I think points may be at a premium here.
- Worst price to bet: Under 44 (-115)
Miami Dolphins -6 (-110) vs. New York Jets
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins over 44.5 (-110)
Sauce Gardner’s status is up in the air and I’m not sure the Jets are fully interested in winning games. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have no problem beating bad teams. I’m betting both the side and total in this game because I think this is a good matchup for the Dolphins offense, which hasn’t quite hit its stride yet this year. And also, the Jets are a mess. Go Phins.
- Worst price to bet: Dolphins -6.5 (-115) and over 45 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-115) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Ladd McConkey’s working through something, and if you paid attention to the Chargers at all this year, he’s pretty much their only option in the passing game. And he’s pretty darn good, too. McConkey ranks ninth and 11th among qualified wide receivers in EPA/route and yards/route. With him potentially off the board, I could see the Chargers taking it lightly this week as this game has very little impact on their playoff odds. Of course, I also know that the Chiefs winning by any sort of margin in a regular-season game is always a sweat, and I expect nothing less than a sweat on Sunday.
- Worst price to bet: Chiefs -4 (-110)
(Photo of Josh Jacobs: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)